PGA Betting Advice: Farmers Insurance Open - FRL and Head-To-Head Selections

January 20, 2020

Spencer Aguiar digs into the Vegas betting lines to find his best first-round leader and head-to-head plays for the Farmers Insurance Open.

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the arrival of our new column that will cover first-round leader bets and head-to-head plays for each PGA Tour stop.

If you are looking for a more in-depth breakdown, be sure to check out my PGA DFS: Vegas Report. There you will find my complete betting card, as well as my head-to-head play of the week. My premium head-to-head selections have gone an impressive (77-37-7), netting nearly 44 units of profit and a 67% success rate. On top of that, my outright wagers have yielded 16 winners since the inception of the article - including a 200/1 outright victor at the Valero Texas Open last season, making it a must-read for gambling enthusiasts.

In this feature, I will present a handful of head-to-head wagers that just missed out on being my best bet of the week and will discuss a few first-round leader bets that I believe are returning value to bettors. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me on Twitter @teeoffsports. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

First Round Leader Bets:

We will have to take the week off from the FRL market. Most books don't offer odds with the tournament being held on two different courses over the first two days, but if you are lucky enough to find a place that makes a mistake, target players that are playing Thursday at the North Course.

Head-to-Head Wagers To Consider:

*** Full disclosure, some of these plays are bet by me weekly. I am extremely precise when it comes to my premium card of wagers and demand they meet a stringent set of criteria. If you were looking to play the entire board, these still yield long-term value, but they might present more volatility than I would care to have when releasing a condensed card.

Marc Leishman -120 over Jordan Spieth +100

Reasons I Liked the Play: Jordan Spieth is an easy target to pick on at this very moment. He hasn't won on tour since 2017 and continues to provide up-and-down results on a weekly basis. That narrative isn't exactly why I have decided to fade the American in this matchup, but we do have a bit of a number grab possible. The perception around Spieth is so bad that this number can only go up, and his lack of consistency with his driver could present issues off the tee at a difficult course like Torrey Pines.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: I'm not a huge proponent of laying extra juice on head-to-head golf wagers. I do believe we have about a three percent edge in terms of win probability with the line being currently priced at -120, as opposed to my projection of -135, but Spieth is a tough nut to crack and is a wildcard early in the year.

1.20 Units to win 1.00

Lanto Griffin -110 over Cameron Champ -110

Reasons I Liked the Play: There is an interesting public betting perception around Cameron Champ that comes into play at long courses. Yes, Champ is one of the longest players off the tee in the world, but his lack of accuracy and poor around the green numbers become a real issue at a challenging test like Torrey Pines.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: While I do believe there is a possibility that Champ implodes and finds trouble over his first two rounds, there is no denying his upside. Champ does have the ability to start out hot and place his name near the top of the leaderboard briefly, but I don't know if he is quite ready to put four consecutive rounds together at a test like he will face this weekend. I think we eventually find the victory if both options make the cut, but Griffin isn't a lock to make the weekend himself.

1.10 Units to win 1.00

Joaquin Niemann +100 over Brandt Snedeker -120

Reasons I Liked the Play: Course history is baked into this price. Despite two victories and a runner-up finish here since 2012, Brandt Snedeker isn't a prototypical fit for this venue. His around the green game and capacity to prevent bogeys is why he has found success, but his driving distance and long irons don't check any of the boxes.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: By my math, this wager does have the least advantage of the three. Snedeker is entering the week with good overall form, even if his recent statistical numbers don't add up well for the test in front of him. Over his previous 12 rounds compared to the field, Snedeker ranks 107th in strokes gained off the tee, 137th in driving distance and 150th in proximity over 200 yards. That usually would be good enough to have this approach "Vegas Report" territory, but it seems foolish to aggressively take on an opponent that consistently has found success at Torrey Pines and has stellar bogey avoidance, around the green and par-four scoring numbers entering the week. I have Joaquin Niemann as the preferred favorite, but I can't say I trust him to produce either at a venue that isn't a birdie fest. An expected win probability of 52.4% for the Chilean is good enough for me to add this as the final wager, but I am not jumping for joy getting my 2.4% edge.

1.00 Units to win 1.00

Last Week's Results:

3-0-0 (+3.00 Units)

Things couldn't have gone much better last weekend. We were able to secure one of the three matchups before Sunday and had a relatively easy closing round with our other two wagers. Kevin Na did make things interesting against Andrew Putnam for a portion of the day, but it never felt like a bet that had much danger of losing.

Year-To-Date Free Head-To-Head Results:

6-2-0 (+4.50 Units)

2020 Premium Head-to-Head Record (5-2-1)

+2.85 Units Year-To-Date From H2H Bets

2020 Premium Outright Bets That Have Finished Inside the Top-10

Yearly Record:

2017 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.175 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)

2018 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (46-24-2) +24.49 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)

2019 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (16-9-2) +8.33 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open  (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)

Career Record (Excluding 2020 Season Results)

Head to Head Bets (72-35-6) +40.995 Units
Outright Winners (15)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41

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