X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

Goodbye Runners, Hello Pass-Catching RBs: 2019 Season Trends

Antonio Losada looks at the pass-catching trend among NFL running backs that is growing higher by the year and was validated again in the 2019 season to determine how this affects fantasy football value at RB.

As the 2019 summer kept going we all had two things in our minds with regard to September's fantasy drafts and both of them were related to running backs: Where in the world are Ezekiel Elliott and Melvin Gordon and when will they be back? It made sense back then (and it still does now, don't get me wrong), given their incredible 2018 seasons. Elliott finished that year with 329 PPR-points (RB5) and Gordon did so at 276 good for RB8. At 23 and 25 years of age respectively, drafting those two studs in any of the first slots in 2019 would be advisable at the very least, but both of them were holding out at the time, lowering their upside and bumping up the risks.

Elliott was back in Dallas in time to start the season, but Gordon missed the first four games entirely. While Elliott's situation didn't call for the use of a backup/handcuff in Dallas, Gordon's second-fiddle Austin Ekeler took on the leading role at the start of the season and by the end of the year, he was the RB4 of 2019 with 309 fantasy points, fewer than six behind second-best Aaron Jones (315).

Both Gordon in 2018 and Ekeler in 2019 (and any other running back in any season) performed duties as rushers and receivers during the year. Gordon got to his 276 fantasy points by dividing them into a 55% rushing and 45% receiving split. Ekeler's 309 points went to him via 23% rushing production and 77% receiving fantasy points. The difference is staggering, and Ekeler's 2019 season is an outlier in the history of fantasy football, but it serves to make the point of why do-it-all rushers are more important than ever these days. Let's try and find how those RBs are gaining historical importance these days.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

The Gap Between Pure Runners and Pass-Catching RBs is Narrower Than Ever

The information I used for the introductory example comes from a dataset that goes back to the 2000 season. It contains 3,246 RB seasons in which those players performed in at least one game each in the given year.

In order to analyze how the league has evolved at the running position in terms of rushing/receiving fantasy production, I divided each rusher's fantasy points into "rushing points" and "receiving points". Given that I'm working with data from PPR-format leagues I named those ruPPR and rePPR, with PPR or FP being the total fantasy points on the season and PPR/G or FP/G the fantasy points per game.

As there are multiple RB seasons that really amounted to nothing, I limited my population to the top-24 running backs of each season, which is to say only the RB1/RB2 if we consider each tier is made of 12 players (the average amount of teams in a standard fantasy league). That gave me the best pair of starting running backs from each season (RB1 and RB2). Here is where those players' fantasy points have come from yearly since 2000:

If that plot was a cave and you had to walk through it from left to right, you'd notice two things:

  1. After descending the 2002 peak you will find yourself mostly going up and up and up almost without exception.
  2. You'll steadily see the roof become closer to you with each step, to the point where around the end of the cave you'd have reached the shortest of gaps between that roof and the floor.

Or, translated to fantasy football:

  1. The average top-24 rushers are getting more and more points from their receiving stats and prowess.
  2. The average top-24 rushers are getting fewer and fewer points from their rushing stats and prowess.

This doesn't mean running backs are getting worse at fantasy football. While they are not as surefire as their early 2000s counterparts, the top rushers from 2018 and 2019 had the two-highest total fantasy points since all the way back in 2006, and the trend has also been climbing upward from 2016 (included) on. What rushers are getting better at is catching the ball and performing all kinds of tasks on the field to get the most possible fantasy points they can.

 

Fantasy Implications

While the study above is representative and illustrates the point I'm making, it has a flaw in that we never know where fantasy points truly come from, or how many points would be earned by players at any position. The evolution of football has skewed stats to favor passers/wideouts and reduced the impact of the running game. That alone explains the decrease in RB fantasy points, although at the top of the leaderboards changes aren't that great.

Something very simple we can do to actually check how players are doing at the position in terms of rushing and receiving is looking at the percentages of points they're getting each way, as I did in the introductory Gordon/Ekeler example. Knowing the total fantasy points scored by each player we can easily calculate how many of those came via rushing and how many came via receiving, and finally, calculate the percentage they amounted to.

Here are the same top-24 players from each season and the percentage of their points that came via rushing/receiving since 2000:

The trend should be much clearer now with the cave becoming even more suffocating in its final stretch that it was during our first run, right? That, again, is because rushers are slowly but surely becoming more do-it-all players rather than just pure runners, and that is also showing at the top of the yearly fantasy leaderboards.

What once was an all-time (in fantasy terms) difference favoring rushing at 40% of over receiving (in the span from 2004 to 2007) has been getting narrower and narrower since 2015 with the exception of 2016 (the main reason being LeGarrette Blount, whose ridiculous 95%/5% ruPPR/rePPR split skewed the full 24-man field average a bit).

Just so the evolution is clearer, here is another plot including the number of RB1/RB2 rushers with at least 50% of their points coming through the air instead of on the ground that made the top-24 each of the past 20 seasons:

Not only is the trend going upward, but 2019 marked the highest number of rushers (along with those found in the 2001 and 2014 seasons) who relied more on receiving than rushing to get the bulk of their fantasy points and still finish as top-24 performers on the year. During the first 13 years of the decade just once (2001) did we see at least five rushers qualify, while in the last seven seasons that has happened in all but two years (2016 and 2017).

The 2019 peak (seven players) mean that 29% of the top-24 rushers of the year were better fantasy receivers than rushers while being labeled RBs. The average in the 20-year span is of a 16% per season (78 total players distributed in 20 years, considering RB1/RB2). That is almost double the average this past season than in the past twenty years, and it feels like the trend is only getting started.

 

How to Use This to Your Advantage

One last thing for those trying the get advantage of the do-it-all rushers come 2020 draft season: there is a negative correlation between rePPR and ADP. Translated: the more points a running back gets through receiving compared to rushing, the "cheaper" he usually is.

This shouldn't come as a surprise. Pure, surefire-rushers are those most coveted at the top of draft boards. There are 3,246 RB seasons registered since the year 2000. Of those, 76 represent players that racked up at least 200 ruPPR and their ADPs averaged a 24.6 pick in drafts. If we only consider the 65 players with ADPs under 48 (fourth round or higher picks), the average ADP decreases to 15, a high-end RB2 and virtual low-end RB1.

Obviously, there have not been that many 200-point rePPR rushers in the last 20 years (only nine). But if we lower our threshold to 150-plus rePPR on the season we find 40 since 2000. Those 40 players' ADP average is 58.8, more than double that of the first group of "super-rushers", yet all but three of them finished their seasons as top-24 (aka RB2) at the very least -- the other three finished 27th, 27th, and 28th, though.

This should clear any internal debate you have about rushing vs. receiving tailbacks. Other than those picked within the first three-to-five picks in the first round, you're better off drafting do-it-all running backs. In a serpentine draft, this could be an intelligent "average strategy" with the data at hand:

  • Picks 1 through 4: Surefire rushers, no matter their receiving prowess
  • Picks 5 through 8: Surefire receivers
  • Picks 9 through 16: Best do-it-all running backs (not focusing on pure rushing stats), top-tier receivers

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jauan Jennings

Day-to-Day With Ankle Injury
Logan O'Hoppe

Activated Off Seven-Day Injured List
CBJ

Denton Mateychuk Dealing With Groin Issue
Bo Horvat

Fine for Training Camp
Kirby Dach

on Track to Be Ready for Opening Night
Jose Altuve

Returns Against Rangers
J.J. McCarthy

Expected to Miss 2-4 Weeks With High-Ankle Sprain
J.J. McCarthy

Likely Out for Week 3 With High-Ankle Sprain
Jean Silva

Gets Finished For The First Time In His Career
Aaron Jones Sr.

Unlikely to Play in Week 3 Due to Hamstring Injury
Diego Lopes

Returns To The Win Column
Jayden Daniels

' Week 3 Status in Doubt
Rob Font

Outclassed In The Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
David Martinez

Wins His Second UFC Fight
Jared Gordon

Suffers Brutal TKO Loss At Noche UFC 3
Rafa Garcia

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Brian Thomas Jr.

Dealing with Wrist Injury
Dustin Stoltzfus

Drops A Decision At Noche UFC 3
Kelvin Gastelum

Gets Back In The Win Column
Diego Ferreira

Suffers Second-Round TKO
Alexander Hernandez

Extends His Win Streak With A Brutal TKO
Quang Le

Suffers First-Round Knockout
Santiago Luna

Shines In His UFC Debut
Christopher Bell

Earns his First Bristol Cup Series Victory
Alex Bowman

Falls Short of Advancing Through Cup Series Playoffs
Chase Briscoe

Collects his Third Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Ryan Blaney

Strong Top-Five Bristol Performance Advances him to the Playoffs
Corey Heim

Earns his First Career Cup Series Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Leads Greece to Bronze Medal
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Drops 28 Points in EuroBasket Finals
CFB

Indiana's Lee Beebe Jr. Out for Season with Knee Injury
Dennis Schröder

Dennis Schroder Named EuroBasket MVP
Bryce Eldridge

Giants to Promote Bryce Eldridge
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Progressing in Recovery
Jonathan Kuminga

Receives New Offer From Warriors
Kenneth Walker III

Bounces Back with Big Week 2 Performance
Bijan Robinson

Rushes for 143 Yards in Week 2
Justin Fields

Currently in Concussion Protocol
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Calling Around to Available Free-Agent Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow

to Undergo Surgery, Out at Least Three Months
Emil Heineman

Aiming to Take the "Next Step" This Season
Braeden Cootes

Good to Go for Camp
Ivan Fedotov

Blue Jackets Acquire Ivan Fedotov From Flyers
Aaron Jones Sr.

Injures Hamstring During Sunday Night Football
Darren Waller

Not Expected to Play in Week 3
Garrett Crochet

Punches Out 12 in Win
Cole Ragans

to Return on Wednesday
Jameson Williams

Records Long Touchdown in Week 2, Still Limited to Downfield Role?
George Kirby

Strikes Out 14 in Win
Jayden Daniels

Considered "Day-to-Day" with Knee Injury
Carlos Estévez

Carlos Estevez Exits with Back Tightness
Jonathan Taylor

Tops 200 Yards From Scrimmage in Week 2 Win
Joe Burrow

Could Miss Three Months if he Requires Toe Surgery
Davante Adams

Headlines Rams Receiving Corps Sunday
Wan'Dale Robinson

Explodes for 142 Yards, Touchdown in Overtime Thriller
Joe Flacco

Browns Not Considering Benching Joe Flacco After Week 2
Quentin Grimes

Still Not Close to a New Contract Agreement
Lamar Jackson

Throws for Four Touchdowns in Week 2 Win
Joel Embiid

"Looking Slender, Spry and in Positive Spirits"
Ty Gibbs

Has Arguably his Best Career Drive, but Only Finishes 10th
Chase Elliott

Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

Misses Round of 12 After Extremely Mediocre Bristol Run
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
Josh Berry

Finishes Last in All Three Round of 16 Races to Fail to Advance
Luis Arraez

Takes a Seat on Sunday With Head Injury
Adolis García

Adolis Garcia Activated, Starting on Sunday
CFB

Ryan Williams Explodes In Return To Field
CFB

Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
CFB

LaNorris Sellers Exits Game In Blowout Loss
CFB

DJ Lagway Tosses Five Interceptions In Loss
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Plays Game Manager in Saturday's Win
CFB

CJ Carr Remains Poised In Narrow Loss
CFB

John Mateer Leads Oklahoma In Rout
CFB

Arch Manning Struggles Against UTEP
CFB

Jeremiah Smith Impresses In Win
Bryan Woo

Records Career-High 13 Strikeouts
Max Muncy

Exits Early on Saturday
CFB

Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Salvador Perez

Reaches 300 Home Runs, 1,000 RBI
Jose Altuve

Exits Early With Foot Discomfort
Trey Yesavage

Heading to Big Leagues
Will Smith

Placed on 10-Day Injured List
Ivan Demidov

Turning Heads in Rookie Camp
NHL

Calvin de Haan Signs With Swedish Team
Samuel Girard

Skates With Non-Contact Jersey
Mackenzie Blackwood

Dealing With Injury Ahead of Training Camp
Spencer Knight

Signs Three-Year Extension With Blackhawks
Chris Buescher

May have Another Solid Run at Bristol
Corey Perry

Out 6-8 Weeks Following Surgery
Kyle Busch

Should DFS Managers Roster Kyle Busch at Bristol?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Too Risky to Consider Rostering at Bristol?
Michael McDowell

Could be A Solid Value Option For Bristol DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

Probably Won't Factor in for Bristol Win
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12
Ross Chastain

has Never Led at Bristol but Has Been Pretty Consistent
Austin Dillon

Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
Justin Haley

Bristol One of Justin Haley's Few Recent Bright Spots
Tarik Skubal

Avoids Serious Injury, Expected to Make Next Start
CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Struggles In Fourth Straight Loss
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Dealing With a "Tweak"
BUF

Alexandar Georgiev Joins Sabres on One-Year Deal
Corey Perry

Injured During Pre-Camp Skate
Tanner Bibee

Fans 10 in Two-Hit Shutout
Zach Neto

Dealing With Wrist Soreness
Masyn Winn

Shut Down for Rest of Season
Tarik Skubal

to Undergo Imaging on Saturday
Tyler Soderstrom

Scratched on Friday With Groin Tightness
CFB

Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
CFB

CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest
CFB

Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
Jean Silva

A Favorite At Noche UFC 3
Diego Lopes

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Event
Rob Font

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
David Martinez

Set For Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
Rafa Garcia

An Underdog At Noche UFC 3
Jared Gordon

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Dustin Stoltzfus

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Kelvin Gastelum

In Dire Need Of Victory
Diego Ferreira

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Malcolm Brogdon

Heading to Knicks on One-Year Deal
CFB

David Sanders Jr. Won't Play Against Georgia
Landry Shamet

Staying with the Knicks
CFB

Dylan Edwards Slated to Return on Friday
Adam Lowry

Aims for Early-Season Return
CFB

Ryan Williams Expected to Play Against Wisconsin
CFB

Billy Edwards Jr. Unlikely to Play on Saturday
P.J. Washington

Officially Signs Contract Extension
CFB

David Sanders Jr. Questionable to Make Debut Against Georgia
Lauri Markkanen

Big at Both Ends as Finland Books Place in EuroBasket Semis
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Notches 39 Points in Losing Effort
NBA

Cam Reddish Expected to Move to Europe
NBA

Trey Lyles Joins Real Madrid
Charles Bassey

Signs Exhibit 10 Deal With Hawks
Sacramento Kings

Terence Davis Waived by Kings
Matthew Knies

Ready for Bigger Role With Maple Leafs
Jack Eichel

Unbothered by Lack of Extension
Sidney Crosby

Not Thinking About Leaving Pittsburgh
SJ

Michael Misa Signs Entry-Level Contract With Sharks
Rutger McGroarty

Nursing an Injury
Cameron Champ

the Ultimate Wild Card at Procore
Cameron Young

Looks to Extend Momentum in Napa
Davis Thompson

Searching for a Spark at Procore
Sahith Theegala

Looking to Reignite Form at Procore
Mackenzie Hughes

Aims for Another Strong Showing at Procore
Luke Clanton

Brings Ball-Striking Upside to Napa
Seamus Power

Looking to Overcome Poor Course History at Procore
Joe Highsmith

Hoping to Find Form in Napa
Kristaps Porzingis

Reportedly Still Not Completely Healthy
Kelly Oubre Jr.

Reportedly on the Trade Block
Andre Drummond

Future in Philadelphia in Doubt
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Helps Greece Reach Semis at EuroBasket
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Posts Historic Triple-Double
Joel Dahmen

Finishes Tied For 15 at Wyndham Championship
Bud Cauley

Finishes Tied for 33rd at BMW Championship
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied for Seventh at Tour Championship
J.J. Spaun

Finishes Tied for 25th at Tour Championship
Collin Morikawa

Finishes Tied for 19th at Tour Championship
Keith Mitchell

Misses Cut at Wyndham Championship
Ben Griffin

Finishes Tied for 10th at Tour Championship
Patrick Cantlay

Finishes Tied for Second at Tour Championship
Gary Woodland

Could Hang Around at Procore Championship
Karl Vilips

Ready for Napa Valley This Weekend
Taylor Montgomery

Heating Up at the Right Time
Jackson Koivun

May Be a Little Rusty at Procore Championship
Doug Ghim

Looking to Rise Up at Napa Valley

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP