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Read our best NRFI betting picks today - Major League Baseball NRFI predictions for 7/12/2025. No Runs First Inning (NRFI) betting tips, expert MLB predictions, odds, and trends.
Saturday's slate of MLB games features some of baseball's top left-handed pitchers, including a pair of All-Stars dueling it out in Max Fried and Matthew Boyd, among other potential matchups to exploit.
We went 4-1 yesterday, so we'll look to keep the good times going here as we coast into the All-Star Break. All 30 teams will be in action, and we will have four NRFI picks and one YRFI that is worth betting on.
On this page, I'll provide my best NRFI and YRFI bets today for MLB games on Saturday, July 12, 2025. Monitor the weather and lineups for each team before placing your wagers. Odds for these bets are from DraftKings or FanDuel Sportsbook.
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What Are MLB NRFI/YRFI Bets?
NRFI bets are bets where you try to pick whether or not two MLB teams will combine for one run in the first inning. YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning," while NRFI means "No Run First Inning."
We prefer to target NRFI because it tends to occur more frequently, which is why you usually see shorter odds than on YRFI. This strategy can change on a slate with worse pitching options, and we have seen offenses start to push back against the NRFI in the summer months with better hitting conditions.
The best part of NRFI wagers is how they settle so quickly. This is a fun sweat, as these six outs can be thrilling, especially if your pitcher works his way out of a jam. Remember to only go with a smaller percentage of your bankroll because this can be a volatile market, with even the best pitchers struggling in the first inning.
Best First Inning Bets Today (July 12, 2025)
- Chicago Cubs at New York Yankees: 1:05 pm
- Miami Marlins at Baltimore Orioles: 4:05 pm
- Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox: 4:10 pm
- Washington Nationals at Milwaukee Brewers: 4:10 pm
- Texas Rangers at Houston Astros: 7:35 pm
Chicago Cubs at New York Yankees NRFI (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- CHC: Matthew Boyd
- NYY: Max Fried
With the quality of both starting pitchers on the mound, the -110 price is a great one to roll the dice on. Both Boyd and Fried rank in the top five in ERA among qualified left-handed starters.
Max Fried, Pretty 75mph Curveball. 🌈 pic.twitter.com/XGlvl4XEh0
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 1, 2025
On the team level, the Cubs have been shut out in eight of their last ten first innings, and the Yankees are scoreless in seven of their last ten.
Fried is 15-4 on first-inning shutouts for the season, and he should roll on here in his last start before the break. Similar story with Boyd, who sits at 13-5 for the season for first-inning shutouts.
Miami Marlins at Baltimore Orioles NRFI (-104 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- MIA: Janson Junk
- BAL: Trevor Rogers
Since making his season debut on May 24, Rogers has been dominant, pitching to a 1.57 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in 28.2 innings. He gets a favorable revenge spot against his former team, as they own a .663 OPS against left-handed pitching over the last 30 days.
Jansen Junk has surprised in a starting role for the Marlins, with a 3.12 ERA in 43.1 innings.
Trevor Rogers is off to a hot start 🔥
After a disappointing '24, he trained with Driveline in the offseason. A lower-body test showed how far off he was from MLB averages — and gave him a clear path to get his velo back.
"He's just scratching the surface," said @D_Gargas to… pic.twitter.com/D2f36bhU3c
— Driveline Baseball (@DrivelineBB) July 8, 2025
With how well Rogers has been throwing and the Marlins' struggles against lefties, it should be a clean top of the first inning. Furthermore, the Orioles are the second-worst scoring team in the first inning all season, with a 71-22 record to the NRFI.
Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox NRFI (-136 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- TB: Shane Baz
- BOS: Garrett Crochet
Baz has been almost untouchable in the first inning this season, with a 17-1 record for first-inning shutouts. And then we also have one of the top candidates for AL Cy Young on the other side in Garrett Crochet.
Garrett Crochet is good. pic.twitter.com/bCM3nHzbCg
— Section 10 Podcast (@Section10Pod) July 1, 2025
Both offenses have been hitting well recently, ranking in the top ten in runs scored over the last 30 days. But they are also both 7-3 to the NRFI in their last ten games. With how Baz has been pitching much better of late and Crochet's dominance, we should have a pretty good shot at getting out of the first inning unscathed.
Washington Nationals at Milwaukee Brewers YRFI (-104 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- WAS: Shinnosuke Ogasawara
- MIL: Brandon Woodruff
Ogasawara made his MLB debut last week and promptly got pounced on by the Red Sox for four runs in the first inning. He wasn't particularly effective in the minor leagues before his promotion either, with a 4.50 ERA in 24 innings. Woodruff, on the other hand, did look quite good in his season debut. The velocity was down, however, and he'll have to get past the freak show James Wood once.
Trevor Story (14)
2-Run Home RunOpponent: Washington Nationals
Pitcher: Shinnosuke Ogasawara
Date: 7/6/25 pic.twitter.com/h6jvETvzlQ— Red Sox Home Runs (@RedSox_HR) July 10, 2025
Neither offense has been adept at putting up runs in the first inning over the last month, with the Brewers struggling all season in this area. But this is a bet against Ogasawara more than anything, as his 90.7 MPH average fastball velocity is among the lowest among all pitchers.
Texas Rangers at Houston Astros NRFI (-166 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- TEX: Jacob deGrom
- HOU: Framber Valdez
The line is juiced up a bit more than we'd like to see at -166, but that's for good reason with the duel aces on the mound in deGrom and Valdez. Both have been dominant all season long, and that's continued recently with both AL West starters ranking in the top 25 in ERA among qualified starters in the last 30 days.
Players in MLB history to have a sub-2.50 ERA & 1700+ strikeouts through 235 career pitching games:
Jacob deGrom.
That’s it. pic.twitter.com/jdmNZWl5wZ
— Greg Harvey (@BetweenTheNums) July 2, 2025
Both offenses have been hot over the last ten days in the first inning, ranking in the top four in batting average. The Rangers are second in baseball with a .378 AVG, and the Astros are at .357, respectively. We're zagging a bit and looking to trust the strength of the two starting pitchers over the recent hot streaks. With the juiced-up odds, you can consider pairing this game up with the Rays at Red Sox NRFI for a juicy parlay.
NRFI Parlay in TEX/HOU + TB/BOS: +178 FanDuel
Notable NRFI/YRFI MLB Trends: Last 10 Games
- Best NRFI hit rate: Orioles, Mariners, D-Backs, Padres, Phillies, Pirates (90%)
- Best YRFI hit rate: Angels (30%)
- Most First Inning Home Runs: Athletics (6)
- Best First Inning Batting Average: Angels (.419)
- Best First Inning On-Base Percentage: Angels (.481)
Conclusion
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