X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Nick Mariano's 10 Bold Predictions for 2019

Nick Mariano continues RotoBaller's 2019 Bold Predictions series with 10 outside-the-box calls for the 2019 fantasy baseball season.

2018 was a banner season for baseball's Marianos, as Mariano Rivera was headed full steam ahead towards a unanimous Hall of Fame entry and yours truly was cruising with the most accurate fantasy baseball ranks of the season per FantasyPros, unbeknownst to me until recently. I'm still riding high off of that and you're all going to have to hear about it.

Some nice hits from last season's bold predictions piece included the resurgence of Trevor Story and Xander Bogaerts, the excellence of Whit Merrifield and the blossoming of Sean Manaea. But I also believed in Yu Darvish and James Paxton to stay healthy and was sipping that Delino DeShields Jr. kool-aid. So, what do I have in store now?

Let's dive in and find out just how I'm going to make it two accuracy titles in a row in 2019!

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Rhys Hoskins is more valuable than Bryce Harper in 5x5 roto leagues.

Hoskins’ first full season saw him crush 34 homers with 96 RBI over 660 PAs, but the overall .850 OPS was disappointing after he cruised to a 1.014 OPS in a 50-game 2017 audition. His career .249 BA and .265 BABIP suffer from a 50.2% fly-ball rate, but true 40-homer power is possible as a result of his patient approach and it’s not like that's a Joey Gallo-ian BA.

Everyone is drawn to Bryce Harper and J.T. Realmuto without properly inflating Hoskins’ stock, as 100 runs and 100 RBI are on the table in a rejuvenated offense and hitter-friendly park. Harper also hit 34 homers last year with an average below .250, and could easily fall short of Hoskins unless Bryce swipes double-digit baggies. Hoskins trimmed his strikeout rate by five percentage points in the second half alongside a fly-ball and pull rate north of 50%. That spells power, baby. Walk Harper all day and let Rhys gobble up the ribbie pieces.

 

Luke Voit transcends his human form and finishes as a top-five 1B

Yankees manager Aaron Boone has said, “it’s tough for me to envision us having two first basemen” and that DJ LeMahieu could spell the starter. Greg Bird is 26 years old, injury-prone and owns a career .214/.302/.434 slash with 31 homers over 659 Major League PAs. Voit, in just 285 PAs, owns a .288/.358/.564 line with 19 homers and endeared himself to the Bronx faithful by going off in pinstripes. While we're not paying up for a career small-sample size, the opportunity of playing a full season as a starter in Yankee Stadium is juicy.

Voit had exactly 100 batted balls in 2018 and his 12.4% Barrels/PA rate was a full percentage point higher than second place (Joey Gallo) of others with 100+ batted-ball events. His 96.5 mph average exit velocity on flies and liners was a top-25 rate and even though I’m not saying he leads the league in Brls/PA again, he’s in a historically-potent Yankees lineup with a fly-ball approach that plays to the short porch in right/right-center. For what it’s worth, Statcast also gave him the highest xwOBA (.437) of any hitter (min. 150 results, different from batted-ball events), with Betts (.431) and Mike Trout (.430) eating his dust!

 

Corey Kluber is not a top-10 SP

This is really tough to defend because his division is soooo pitcher-friendly, especially for strikeouts, but he went from allowing an 85 mph average exit velocity and 5.5% barrel rate in 2017, to an 87.3 mph AEV and 6.4% barrel rate in ‘18 according to Statcast. His hard-hit also rose over four percentage points per Statcast. That’s not awful and his absurd ‘17 campaign helps paint it in bolder ink, but those small percentage rises can turn into a lot for a 33-year-old arm.

I don't love this, but I want to bring down a top arm amongst other calls that are largely positive. A mini boldish prediction here, “4B” if you will, is that Carlos Carrasco is higher ranked in 5x5 than both Kluber and Trevor Bauer.

 

Anibal Sanchez is a top-25 SP

Health is a fickle monster, but Sanchez finds himself on a Nationals squad that gets to face the Marlins and that Vegas is giving 89 wins right now. Out of 139 pitchers who had 300 batted-ball events under their belt, Sanchez’s 3.4 Barrels/PA was 17th and batters averaged only 90.5 mph on fly balls and liners off of him, the ninth-lowest total.

His changeup was particularly lethal, as hitters slugged a mere .205 off of it -- a mark bested only by Max Scherzer’s change (.192) for pitchers who threw at least 500 of them in ‘18. Jacob deGrom (.215) was third. Not bad company, eh? Couple that with a cutter that yielded a ninth-”worst” .317 SLG (tied with Walker Buehler) and you’ve got a nasty 1-2 punch. I see a recipe for wins, K’s and ratios, with a 1.15 WHIP within reason even as the .255 BABIP of last season faces some regression.

 

Mike Moustakas crushes 40 homers, wins NL HR Title

Moustakas is still just 30 years old, still within his power prime, and hit 38 homers while calling power-zapping Kauffman Stadium his home just two seasons ago. Now, without any midseason trade worries surrounding him, he gets to mash at Miller Park for a full year in a lineup that can bang. I understand he’s not hitting the heart of the order and the BA isn’t top-notch -- that’s why I’m not saying he wins MVP or anything -- but the pop is real and the environment is cushy.

Per Baseball Prospectus’ Handedness Park Factors, Kauffman Stadium was 58th out of 60 for left-handed batters in terms of HR Factor in 2018. Miller Park was seventh on the same list, yet Moose’s HR/FB rate dropped about four percentage points when he was dealt to Milwaukee last year. I’m betting on the larger body of work for both Moustakas and Miller Park to play up in ‘19 here, and it’s only a bonus that he’ll be 2B-eligible soon.

 

Corey Seager doesn’t return top-100 value, finishes within 20 spots of Asdrubal Cabrera in 5x5

I’ve never really understood the name-brand hype surrounding Seager, but you take a hot prospect and stick him in a Dodgers uniform and I suppose it shouldn’t surprise me. Seager is coming off of Tommy John surgery and is hoping to start playing defense in minor league contests later this week, per Bill Plunkett.

Seager hasn’t hit more than 26 homers before and I doubt his power peak comes after TJS recovery. His legs won’t bail his fantasy value out, with 14 steal attempts across 355 MLB games. The Dodgers may push him to 90-100 runs scored and his average could hit .300, but what’s a 90-24-80-2-.295 line worth? And that’s not baking in any rust from April and assuming he’s ready to rock come Opening Day -- which is not a given.

Meanwhile, Asdrubal Cabrera carries eligibility across much of the infield and now calls hitter-friendly Arlington home. That Handedness Park Factor chart from before graded Arlington as the best park overall for righties and fifth-best for lefties and both top-12 for HRs. Derek Carty’s THE BAT projects Cabrera to post a 74-24-80-3-.275 line. I can see that coming awfully close of Seager in 2019, with an ADP nearly 200 picks later.

 

Garrett Hampson & Trevor Story combine for 50 HR/50 SB

This flies in the face of everything Jeff Bridich and the Rockies mismanagement of youth has shown us thus far, but if Story could breakout then we can make this happen. To be fair, the Ian Desmond situation means it comes at Ryan McMahon’s expense, but the wheel of time is moved by blood alone. Also, I can’t do this without including Story!

Story went 37/27 last year and I’m comfortable going 35/25 on him, meaning I think Hampson goes 15/25 while the two becomes an exciting double-play duo in CO. Out of 549 players with 10 opportunities on the basepaths last season, Hampson’s 30 ft/sec was 10th and Story’s 29.6 ft/sec was 17th. The biggest hurdle here might be manager Bud Black’s willingness to run them! Hampson’s BA has cleared .300 at every level, his fly-ball rate sniffs 35% and he uses all fields. That’s enough for a solid 15 dingers.

 

Peter O'Brien clobbers 35 homers

You know who was in 11th place on that xwOBA list at .388, sandwiched between Joey Votto and Anthony Rendon? Yup, it’s O’Brien. He’s a one-tool dude and the counting stats won’t be kind on the 2019 Marlins, but the pop is oh so real.

The difference that showed itself in ‘18 was that instead of striking out a Herculean 40-45% of the time, he brought it down to an acceptable (in this era, at least) 28-30%. He’s 28 years old and only has 153 MLB PAs to his name, but if the whiffs stay manageable then that power plays at any venue.

 

Jorge Polanco is a top-10 shortstop, going 100/20/60/20/.300 from the leadoff spot

Eat your heart out, Byron Buxton truthers. Everyone may have chalked up his 10 HR, 7 SB, .316 BA in 55 games to end 2017 up to the PED suspension that “started” his ‘18 campaign, but he still hit six homers, swiped seven bags and hit .288 in 77 second-half games.

Most projection systems are giving him a realistic shot at 15/15 in his age-25 season, but we’ve seen power spikes (unknown relation to PEDs) and his sprint speed is identical to Francisco Lindor’s. If he can regularly get on base and dance a little ahead of Eddie Rosario and Nelson Cruz then 100 runs are happening.

 

Wil Myers fails to top 400 PAs, finishing around 250th overall

Honestly, this doesn’t feel that bold and I also don’t want to be right. I think Myers is an intriguing talent and he deserved better than to be sent back into the outfield where he always gets hurt. Alas, the Eric Hosmer signing robbed him of the 1B safety blanket and the Padres stacked infield gives him no home on the dirt, so the OF it is. Nevermind that he hit 58 HRs with 48 SBs between his two seasons at first, no, forget that.

The Rays started him in the outfield and he got hurt (right wrist sprain, fracture in ‘14). He came to the Pads in ‘15, made 37 OF starts and 19 1B starts between left wrist tendinitis DL stints. Then the two awesome, full years at first in 2016-17. Last season, he made two starts at first, 36 at third and 39 in the outfield. He would go on the DL with left arm nerve irritation, then an oblique strain and finally, a bone bruise on his left foot.

Mix in a deep Padres outfield with Manuel Margot, Hunter Renfroe, Franchy Cordero and Franmil Reyes, and San Diego likely won’t feel crunched to rush Myers back in should anything crop up.

More 2019 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Cal Raleigh

Continues Historic Homer Pace Tuesday
Jacob Wilson

Exits Early On Tuesday With Left Hand Contusion
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
Laken Tomlinson

Confident in Texans Offensive Line
J.K. Dobbins

the Starter in Denver?
JT Woods

Seahawks Release JT Woods
Darren Waller

Trade to Miami Becomes Official
Asante Samuel Jr.

Dolphins Interested in Asante Samuel Jr.
Nyheim Hines

Seeking Return to NFL
Dak Prescott

Expects to be Full-Go for Training Camp
Ajay Mitchell

Posts 16 Points in Summer League Win on Monday
Milwaukee Bucks

Vasilije Micic Waived by Bucks
Brice Sensabaugh

Logs 37 points in Summer League Win on Monday
Luis Garcia

Fans Four in Rehab Outing
GG Jackson II

Collects 27 Points in Summer League Loss
Ace Bailey

Scores 18 Points in Summer League Victory
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Kobe Bufkin

Cleared for Summer League Action
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Milwaukee Bucks

Vasilije Micic Agrees to Contract Buyout with Bucks
PGA

Sungjae Im Still a Liability at Scottish Open
James Wiseman

Pacers Bring Back James Wiseman
Ludvig Aberg

is a Solid Option at Scottish Open
Tyrese Haliburton

to Miss Entire 2025-26 Campaign
Paolo Banchero

Signs Historic Five-Year Extension with Magic
Anthony Santander

Hoping to Hit Soon
Luis Robert Jr.

Returning in Short Order
Alex Bregman

Could Return Later This Week
Ketel Marte

Day-to-Day with Groin Tightness
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Hunter Greene

Suffers Setback on Monday
Kyle Lowry

Staying With 76ers
Kyle Anderson

Lands in Utah
Kevin Love

Traded to Jazz in 3-Team Swap
Norman Powell

Traded to Miami
John Collins

Dealt to Clippers
J.J. Spaun

Finishes Tied For 14 at Travelers Championship
Xander Schauffele

Finishes Tied For 61 at Travelers Championship
Collin Morikawa

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Robert MacIntyre

Finishes Tied For 17 at Travelers Championship
Si Woo Kim

Finishes Tied For 11 at John Deere Classic
Viktor Hovland

Withdraws From Travelers Championship
Tommy Fleetwood

Finishes Tied For Second at Travelers Championship
Brian Campbell

Wins John Deere Classic
Bronny James Jr.

Scores 10 Points
Harrison Ingram

Limited on Sunday
Golden State Warriors

Isaiah Mobley Drops 16 Points
Ryan Rollins

Staying with Bucks
T.J. Watt

Pittsburgh Still Not Close on New Contract
Terry McLaurin

Still Not Pleased with Contract Situation
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Yu Darvish

to Make Season Debut on Monday
MLB

Nationals Fire Dave Martinez, Mike Rizzo
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
KaVontae Turpin

Arrested on Two Charges
Cole Ragans

to Begin Throwing on Monday
Theo Johnson

Prioritizing his Health this Offseason
Andrés Giménez

Andres Gimenez Hits 10-Day Injured List
Jermaine Burton

Continues to Show Growth
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
Cam Ward

"Not Expecting" to be handed Starting Job
Chase Claypool

Eager to Get Back on the Field
Wyatt Langford

Activated, Playing on Saturday
Jay Huff

on the Move to Indiana
Cam Whitmore

Wizards Acquire Cam Whitmore from the Rockets
LaJohntay Wester

Stands out on Special Teams
Clarke Schmidt

Likely to Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Nolan Arenado

Scratched from Saturday's Lineup
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Starting on Saturday
Corbin Carroll

Activated from 10-Day Injured List
Cincinnati Bengals

Shemar Stewart, Bengals Continue Contract Talks, No Progress Made
Ha-Seong Kim

Removed Early During Season Debut
ARI

Christian Fischer Retires From NHL at 28
NHL

Spencer Martin Moves to Russia
WAS

Anthony Beauvillier Re-Signs With Capitals for Two Years
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Sitting Out With Foot Issue
Isaiah Neyor

Impresses at Minicamp
Bo Bichette

Back in Blue Jays Lineup
Miles Sanders

Works With Starters During Mandatory Minicamp
Chimere Dike

Titans Could Move Chimere Dike Inside
Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith not Guaranteed Roster Spot
Anthony Bradford

Working Hard to Win Back Starting Job
Clarke Schmidt

Placed on Injured List
SJ

Sharks Claim Nick Leddy Off Waivers
SJ

Sharks Sign Dmitry Orlov to Two-Year, $13 Million Contract
CAR

Nikolaj Ehlers Joins Hurricanes on Six-Year Contract
COL

Brent Burns Inks One-Year Deal with Avalanche
STL

Blues Land Pius Suter on Two-Year Deal
Morgan Frost

Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
WPG

Gustav Nyquist Moves to Winnipeg
Cody Glass

Devils Re-Sign Cody Glass to Two-Year Deal
PIT

Anthony Mantha Joins Penguins
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF