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It's one of the oldest pools out there. It used to be the most popular league during football season until fantasy came along. But picking a team to win each week, not being able to take them again, is as simple as it gets. You don't need to worry about every little injury like you do in fantasy, you can just root for the team to win, not the player. It doesn't get any better.
It seems every year there are more storylines in the NFL season, more predictions, too much information that you don't know what to believe. When making picks, try to drown out that noise and go with your gut. Don't listen to that analyst on TV because they most likely are not putting their money where their mouth is. The worst thing is you have a team you're going to pick, change it at the last moment because so-and-so says they'll lose and gives out his "lock." Trusting your initial reaction is the best way to go about this pool.
All season long I'll be bringing you weekly columns on teams to target and avoid each week. Strategy is a major part of winning this pool and this article will help you through the season.
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Survivor League Strategy
There are several ways to play this contest.
Week-by-week: What it sounds like. Don't look ahead, take it week-by-week choosing a team that will advance you.
The Long-Game: People plot out the entire season from Week 1-18. They look at the entire schedules determining when it would be best to choose teams based on opponents and other scheduling factors. I've personally never done this because injuries to star players can throw the whole plan into disarray. If you like this strategy, I'd advise looking ahead a maximum of three weeks and plotting the season a month at a time.
Contrarian: Don't take the big popular favorite each week. For Week 1, that would be avoiding the Bucs or Niners. The reason why people like this strategy; when one of the big favorites gets knocked out, the majority of entrants are eliminated and you avoid it.
Teams to Fade: Find the team that will be the worst and constantly fade them. Last year it was the Jets. This year it'll likely be the Texans.
My strategy: A combination of the above. I obviously want a team I'm confident in weekly. I like to look ahead but not too far ahead. And I don't like to be with the majority of people. For example, the Bucs and Chiefs are expected to be so why waste them in Week 1? Plenty of better opportunities later in the year. For example; the Bucs play the Giants in Week 11.
Teams favored by 7+ in Week 1
Lines are consensus The Action Network (home team in caps); BUCS -7.5 vs. Cowboys, 49ers -7.5 @ LIONS, and RAMS -7.5 vs. Bears.
If you're reading this article on Thursday or later, know that these lines are from Tuesday. Check the current spreads and see how the line moved.
With gambling now legal for some of you, I'm going to be giving out my three top plays against the spread. They'll be at the bottom. I'll also be giving my predicted score for games written about.
Top Survivor Picks for Week 1
The Bucs, 49ers, and Rams will be the three most popular picks. You may want to consider saving these three teams.
BUCS -7.5 vs. Cowboys
Tampa gets to show off their new Super Bowl banner at home, where they won the championship, against the Cowboys on Thursday night. The Bucs have nearly everyone returning. Dallas is off a terrible year in which Dak Prescott was injured. He's still having issues with his shoulder.
Bucs 31 - Cowboys 27
49ers -7.5 at LIONS
San Fran is expected to challenge for the NFC West crown and some have even pegged them as Super Bowl contenders. Detroit is expected to be one of the worst teams.
49ers 34 - Lions 17
RAMS -7.5 vs. Bears
This is the Sunday Night Football game. It's pretty much Super Bowl-or-bust for the Rams after trading Jared Goff for Matthew Stafford. Sean McVay finally has the quarterback needed to run his offense. The Bears have their own quarterback controversy with Andy Dalton getting the start instead of Justin Fields. Either way, it won't make a difference in L.A.
Rams 24 - Bears 16
Broncos -2.5 at GIANTS
This is my Week 1 survivor play. I really like how Denver played their starters throughout the preseason. Teddy Bridgewater looked good and he's a proven winner. He's a smart quarterback. Bridgewater will have weapons to throw to in Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton.
But the reason I like this pick is their defensive line. Pass-rushers Von Miller and Bradley Chubb finally get to play together. They should dominate the Giants offensive line that looked grossly overmatched in the preseason especially against the Patriots in their final game. Quarterback Daniel Jones looked flustered and immediately upon feeling pressure, would get happy feet. Saquon Barkley is coming off an ACL tear so he shouldn't be expected to be himself right away.
Broncos 23 - Giants 13
Panthers -5 vs. Jets
Sam Darnold gets to go against his old team in his Carolina debut. The Panthers have a plan, a real infrastructure with a legitimate head coach, Matt Rhule, to give Darnold the support he needs. Jets are starting rookie Zach Wilson with a bunch of new players.
Panthers 33 - Jets 17
Jaguars -3 at Texans
The big question is whether Deshaun Watson will be playing in Week 1 amid his slew of sexual assault accusations. If he doesn't play, the Jaguars should be strongly considered. Houston has one of the worst rosters and when can you plausibly take Jacksonville again? Well, that may be in Week 15 against the Texans again. But that is too far to look ahead to with both teams expected to be bad.
Top Survivor Picks to Avoid
BILLS -6.5 vs. Steelers
Buffalo is going to be one of the best teams in football. They should be saved for later in the year. They get the Jets twice, Texans, Jaguars, and Falcons in Week 17 in Buffalo. Plus, people are so down on the Steelers, perhaps they prove all the doubters wrong in Week 1.
Bills 28 - Steelers 25
CHIEFS -6 vs. Browns
Same logic goes for Kansas City. Plenty of other chances to use the Chiefs; the game I'm circling is Nov. 1 against the Giants on Monday Night Football.
Browns 30 - Chiefs 28
Best Bets
- Broncos -2.5 at Giants
- Panthers -5 vs. Jets
- Steelers +6.5 at Bills
Season Picks
AFC NFC
1 - Bills (East) 1 - 49ers (West)
2 - Chiefs (West) 2 - Bucs (South)
3 - Steelers (North) 3 - Vikings (North)
4 - Titans (South) 4 - Cowboys (East)
5 - Patriots 5 - Packers
6 - Browns 6 - Seahawks
7 - Broncos 7 - Rams
Wild Card:
Chiefs over Broncos | Bucs over Rams
Steelers over Browns | Seahawks over Vikings
Patriots over Titans | Packers over Cowboys
Divisional:
Bills over Patriots | 49ers over Seahawks
Chiefs over Steelers | Bucs over Packers
Conference Championships:
Chiefs over Bills | 49ers over Bucs
Super Bowl:
Chiefs over 49ers
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