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Kyle's fantasy football draft busts, avoids and fades - NFL players trending downward for 2024. These fantasy football ADPs and draft stocks have plummeted.
Ah, the sweet siren song of the NFL preseason, where every player is in the best shape of their life, and the unheralded rookies shine like diamonds in the rough during drills. It's that time of year when coaches wax poetic about every last guy on the roster, setting fantasy football chat boards alight with speculation and hype.
Let’s cut through the noise a bit, as, unfortunately, not every story is a fairy tale here. Players are wrestling with injuries, grappling with inconsistency, and duking it out in fierce roster battles. These aren't always front-page news, but keen eyes on usage and preseason snaps can speak volumes. These under-the-radar signals might hint at who’s slipping down the depth charts.
So, who's not living up to the hype? Here's a rundown of players at each position whose fantasy stocks have taken a preseason plunge. That's not to say you shouldn't draft any of these players or that they will be busts in 2024; the purpose of this article is just to point out which way the arrow is pointing for some of these players.
Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.
Running Back Fantasy Football Fallers
Kendre Miller, New Orleans Saints
It hasn't been the best tenure for Miller since he was drafted by the Saints in the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft. He suffered a knee injury at the end of his final season at TCU that ended up lingering into the 2023 training camp and the regular season after Miller pulled his hamstring.
Despite starting running back Alvin Kamara missing three games with a suspension, Miller was never able to get on the field and finished his rookie campaign with just 41 rushes for 156 yards and one TD to go with 10 receptions for 117 yards.
#Saints HC Dennis Allen on Kendre Miller:
“All I can go off of is what I’ve been able to evaluate and, quite frankly, since we drafted him, there hasn’t been a whole lot of new information other than what I saw on the college tape, because he hasn’t been available.”
“He’s… pic.twitter.com/tSRDrAh7nD
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) August 21, 2024
During training camp this summer, Miller suffered another pulled hamstring, and Saints head coach said that Miller is going to have to figure out how to stay healthy during a post-practice interview with the press. As of right now, it appears Miller is in danger of losing his roster spot or of being buried on the depth chart altogether.
Many in the dynasty space liked Miller as a prospect, but it appears his head coach's patience is wearing thin. It's likely that Miller would get picked up by another team if he were released, but changing teams this late in the preseason isn't ideal, as he'd have to learn an entirely new offense. Perhaps we are all overreacting here, but the drumbeat for Miller hasn't been a solid one at all this summer.
Roschon Johnson, Chicago Bears
There were some rumblings of fellow RB Khalil Herbert getting traded, but those murmurs seem to have faded for the time being. Herbert is an unrestricted free agent after the 2024 season, and the Bears would likely get more for Herbert via compensatory picks than they would from trading him at this point.
The team is all-in on building around No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams at quarterback and helping to get him as many weapons as possible as a rookie.
D'Andre Swift was signed to a free-agent deal this offseason, and despite showing promise as a rookie, Roschon seems buried on the bench as the team's RB3 at this stage. Johnson averaged 4.9 yards per touch (20th among RBs) in 2023. He also featured a 9.5% target share and is a capable player when he's on the field.
However, this backfield is trending towards being a three-way committee with a rookie quarterback under head coach Matt Eberflus, making it a very difficult needle to thread for fantasy football in 2024.
Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers
Jacobs took a tumble in ADP over the summer after reports came out of Packers head coach Matt LaFleur suggesting that he prefers a committee-based approach with multiple backs to keep them fresh for the playoffs. Looking back at LaFleur's running back usage over five years as Green Bay's head coach, he's never given any back over a 62 percent snap share in a season.
Green Bay drafted RB MarShawn Lloyd out of USC in the third round of the draft, and A.J. Dillon still looms on the depth chart. The fact that Lloyd has been sidelined with a hamstring injury for much of training camp has meant that he hasn't been on the field to get meaningful reps and establish a role for himself in the offense.
Editor's Note: A.J. Dillon has now been moved to IR and is out for the season.
Despite how much the markets have frowned upon Josh Jacobs over the summer, the reality is he's going to be leaned on heavily, at least early in the season, in what could be a very good offense. Buy the dip!
AJ Dillon stinger.
MarShawn Lloyd's hamstring.Josh Jacobs workhorse 2024. https://t.co/fvUEmaa0Cm
— Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT (@jmthrivept) August 21, 2024
Tony Pollard, Tennessee Titans
Pollard was signed to a healthy three-year/$21.75 million contract this offseason and many across the fantasy landscape assumed that meant he was going to be the guy. However, the Titans' coaching staff has come out multiple times saying that they view Pollard and fellow RB Tyjae Spears as "interchangeable," a sort of "1-A" and "1-B" in their backfield.
Pollard was going well ahead of Spears for a portion of the summer, but now they are both going close to each other in ADP. Neither of them is a bad fantasy pick at this point due to the reality that each of them has contingent-based upside if the other back misses time, but Spears is the younger and more explosive of the two backs.
Under new head coach Brian Callahan, the Titans have a chance to improve their offense by leaps and bounds compared to 2023. If you still believe in Pollard, now is a good time to buy the dip.
Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
After head coach Todd Bowles came out this offseason and suggested that they needed to give White a little bit of a breather and get another running back involved in the offense, many in the fantasy football community panicked. Whether or not to draft White is a huge conundrum for fantasy football in 2024 as there are pros and cons.
Drafting White might feel like a good move at first glance, but the guy's averaging a modest 3.7 yards per carry across his career, and his efficiency metrics as a runner were some of the worst in the NFL last season.
The plot thickens with the Bucs' latest draft pick, Bucky Irving, fresh off two 1,000-yard rushing seasons at Oregon and known for snagging four passes a game last year. Plus, there’s Sean Tucker, who disappointed as an undrafted rookie free agent last season, but the team is still giving him a chance to prove himself.
The problem with White compared to last year is that he's being drafted as a fringe RB1 in the same neighborhood as Isiah Pacheco and James Cook. White offers tremendous upside as a pass-catcher, but there are valid reasons to be concerned about him holding down the job again for another full season.
Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Fallers
Marquise Brown, Kansas City Chiefs
There's a ton to like about Brown this season as he adds a strong vertical element to the Chiefs' offense that they haven't had since star wideout Tyreek Hill was traded. However, Brown suffered a nasty injury early in the preseason that caused him to be hospitalized. While there is optimism in Kansas City for an early return, one of my favorite medical experts isn't so sure.
Writing up Marquise Brown in the fade due to injury breakdown and realizing that people were drafting him ~WR37.
~61.3 overall ADP.
He should probably drop at least 2-3 full rounds, even if he’s back by Wk2-3.
— Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT (@jmthrivept) August 12, 2024
It's no secret that the Chiefs offense has the possibility of being much more explosive compared to the last two years, but there are a bevy of mouths to feed. Stud TE Travis Kelce was just re-signed to an extension, the team traded up for WR Xavier Worthy in Round 1 of the 2024 NFL Draft, and second-year wideout Rashee Rice is very good.
While the outlook is still solid for a healthy Brown overall, his injury might cause him to get bumped down in the pecking order for now.
Mike Williams, New York Jets
If Jets QB Aaron Rodgers can return to form after his Achilles injury, there is reason for optimism about the Jets offense this year. Outside of stud wideout Garrett Wilson, there isn't anyone out there as the team's established No. 2 pass catcher.
Williams has been one of the biggest 'what ifs' in fantasy during his time with the Chargers. Yeah, he’s put up some solid numbers but has only cracked the top 30 in full-PPR formats once.
Here’s the harsh truth: Williams has only seen 100+ targets once, hit 1,000 yards twice, and never reached 80 catches in a season. Now, with a new team and no clear timetable for his return, expecting a breakout in 2024 feels like a long shot, but there is a scenario where he could outperform his ADP, especially in best ball formats.
Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings
It's been a rough offseason for Addison and the Vikings in general. The second-year wideout was arrested for a DUI over the summer and nearly suffered a season-ending injury in training camp on the same day that rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy was ruled out for the season after suffering a meniscus tear.
Kevin O'Connell confirms that WR Jordan Addison avoided a major ankle injury. "I don't see him missing any extended time," he told reporters at Browns facility.
LB Blake Cashman injured a finger yesterday and needed surgery. He'll return once the stitches heal, per O'Connell.
— Kevin Seifert (@SeifertESPN) August 15, 2024
Veteran Sam Darnold will step in as the Vikings quarterback for the full season after many had anticipated he would only start the first four games before McCarthy took over following the team's Week 5 bye.
Going from McCarthy to Darnold for a full season shouldn't move the needle all that much, but it does remove a scenario where McCarthy would have played much better than Darnold in the second half of the year.
You shouldn't fade Justin Jefferson in fantasy because of Darnold, but it's fair to have doubts about him supporting Addison and T.J. Hockenson this year. While there's enough reason to be optimistic about head coach Kevin O'Connell keeping this offense humming, it's fair to have questions about a quarterback on his fourth team in seven years.
Troy Franklin, Denver Broncos
There was a reason to be hopeful for Franklin despite falling to the fourth round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Early on Day 3, the Broncos moved up in the draft to select Franklin and reunite him with his old college quarterback, Bo Nix.
Franklin is a taller receiver who is a total burner on the outside but reports out of training camp thus far have suggested that Franklin is struggling to get off press and isn't running routes well. While it's still fine to be optimistic about Franklin for dynasty purposes, he appears buried on the depth chart for now.
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