NFL Pick 'Em Pool Picks (Week 7) - Targets, Avoids, Predictions for Pick'em Contests (2025)

October 19, 2025

The top NFL Pick'em pool picks for Week 7 of the 2025 NFL season. Kyle's weekly NFL Pick'em pool targets, avoids, and predictions to help win pick'em contests.

Welcome back to our NFL Pick'em Pool Picks for Week 7 of the 2025 NFL season. Week 7 has some tasty matchups, beginning with a duel between the two oldest quarterbacks in the NFL on Thursday Night Football: Aaron Rodgers and Joe Flacco. Then, we get (hopefully) an exciting matchup in London between the Rams and Jaguars after one of the worst games in recent memory last week between the Jets and Broncos.

Five of the seven teams that entered Week 6 with a 4-1 record lost, the first time since at least 1997 that so many 4-1 teams were defeated in the same week. Parity is prevalent across the league. The 5-1 Colts lead the NFL with a +78 point differential, while the 2-4 Bengals are last with -80. Since 2020, that is the second-tighest gap between the best and worst teams through six weeks.

Every week of the 2025 NFL season, I'll lock in my picks for each game and rank them based on my confidence level in the selection. The games will be grouped into locks, semi-confident picks, and toss-ups. The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least confident pick. As always, we'll dive into some traditional and advanced stats as well as historical trends on each side to find matchup advantages. Let's get to the picks for Week 7.

Week 7 NFL Pick'em Pool Locks

The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least-confident pick. The higher the number, the better. The projected winners are italicized.

15 - Kansas City vs. Las Vegas

The Chiefs appear to be back. Unfortunate for the rest of the NFL, but this offense is humming, and now they get Rashee Rice back from suspension. Mahomes and the Chiefs are 21-3 straight up as favorites of 10 or more points since he became a starter, with two of those losses coming versus the Raiders.

14 - New England at Tennessee

The Patriots are back in first place in the AFC East through six weeks for the first time since 2019. The vibes are high, and Drake Maye looks like one of the league's next great young quarterbacks. The Titans, meanwhile, are a trainwreck and just fired Brian Callahan. We often see teams get a short-term bump with an interim head coach, but I wouldn't bet on it.

13 - Green Bay at Arizona

The last time these two teams played in Arizona was a memorable one. It came back in Week 8 of the 2021 season, when the 6-1 Packers faced the 7-0 Cardinals on Thursday Night Football. The Packers won 24-21 after Rasul Douglas picked off Kyler Murray in the end zone with a handful of seconds remaining. It was also the game where we got the classic Aaron Rodgers meme.

Semi-Confident Picks For Week 7 Pick 'Em Pools

12 - Denver vs. New York Giants

Denver's offense is concerning. It is currently 28th in success rate (41.7%), sandwiched between the Cardinals and the Raiders. The defense is still great and should send rookie QB Jaxson Dart back to earth after a really impressive performance against the Eagles last Thursday night.

11 - Pittsburgh at Cincinnati

Aaron Rodgers vs. Joe Flacco. The combined age of both starting quarterbacks in this game is 81. For comparison, the youngest starting quarterback matchup this week is Drake Maye versus Cam Ward, with a combined age of just 46. But Mike Tomlin's teams on short weeks haven't performed well. He has a career 2-9 record in road Thursday night games since being hired in 2007.

"Icy Hot Bowl": Aaron Rodgers, Joe Flacco prepare for just fourth 40-40 QB matchup in NFL historyhttps://t.co/8SrScpCErB pic.twitter.com/5Hn6HD87Zr

— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) October 15, 2025

10 - Carolina at New York Jets

The Jets remain the NFL's only winless team, while the Panthers might be the most Jekyll-and-Hyde team in the league. The Panthers have the third-largest home-to-away difference in offensive EPA/play and the fourth-largest difference in defensive EPA/play. They're the only team to be top-5 in both areas. This will probably be a pretty weird game.

NFL Pick 'Em Toss-Ups Of Week 7

9 - Washington at Dallas

The highest total of the season at a whopping 55 points. It's only the third game since 2022 with a total of at least 55 points. Washington is coming off a brutal home loss to Chicago, where it blew it at the end, and Dallas is kicking itself for losing a game against Carolina, where Dak Prescott finished with a 90.2 QBR. Both defenses stink, and both offenses are fun. Games involving Dallas are averaging a total of 60 points this season.

Despite their rich rivalry history, Washington and Dallas have only played 3 times since 1980 in Washington’s 7th game of season. The previous:

—A dominating 34-7 win at RFK in 1984
—A 33-19 loss in rain at FedEx in 2017
—Easy 25-3 win in front of no fans in 2020

This will be… pic.twitter.com/7WnZtJpfvl

— Washington Football Memories (@skinsmemories77) October 15, 2025

8 - Los Angeles Rams at Jacksonville

This projects as a good game, but it will be played across the pond in London, so who knows. It's a revenge game for Liam Coen, who served as assistant wide receivers coach from 2018 to 2019 and then as the offensive coordinator in 2022 under Sean McVay with the Rams.

7 - Chicago vs. New Orleans

It's the fifth meeting between two QBs of the 2024 draft class this season, and Caleb Williams has been involved in three of them. He's 1-1 in his first two games, losing Week 1 against J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings, then avenging their Hail Mary loss last week against Jayden Daniels and the Commanders. On the flip side, Spencer Rattler is playing legitimately good ball and is showing signs of being the guy of the future for New Orleans. Rattler and Williams, teammates at the University of Oklahoma in 2021, will face off for the first time since then.

6 - Indianapolis at Los Angeles Chargers

Justin Herbert put the cape on last week against Miami and willed the Chargers to a 29-27 win, and Indianapolis continues to roll as it looks like a machine on offense. The Chargers have gotten gashed with explosive runs over the past two weeks, and now the favorite to win Offensive Player of the Year, Jonathan Taylor, comes to town.

5 - Miami at Cleveland

The Browns are favored by 2.5 points in this game. That feels weird to say, but that's the state of the 2025 Miami Dolphins. The offense continues to perform well and isn’t the source of their problems, but the defense has been catastrophically terrible. However, a stoppable force meets a movable object. The Browns haven't scored 18 points or higher in 11 straight games.

4 - Houston at Seattle

Seattle continues to look great on the back of its defense, Sam Darnold, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. But I'm also buying back into Houston as it appeared to have figured some things out on offense in the two weeks before its Week 5 bye. It put up 26 points against Tennessee, then hung 44 on Baltimore. Yes, those defenses aren't impressive. But its 66% success rate against Baltimore was the highest mark of any offense in a game this season, and the defense is still great. It is the only defense to not allow an opponent to go over the team total.

3 - Minnesota vs. Philadelphia

Carson Wentz's revenge game? It's still to be determined if McCarthy will be able to return for this one. The Vikings are coming off a bye week, while the Eagles are coming off a mini-bye after getting thumped by the Jaxson Dart-led Giants last Thursday night. Nick Sirianni's Eagles are 7-14 against the spread coming off a loss.

2 - Atlanta at San Francisco

How about Atlanta's defense? It is currently the No. 1 defense by DVOA, and coming off a Monday night win where it had Josh Allen pressing. Impressive stuff by defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich. The Falcons are in prime time again on Sunday Night Football against the banged-up 49ers.

Josh Allen's last 3 games with 2+ INT and 4+ sacks:

2025 Falcons
2023 Jets
2022 Jets

Jeff Ulbrich was the defensive coordinator for all 3 games 👀

— Scott Kacsmar (@ScottKacsmar) October 15, 2025

1 - Detroit vs. Tampa Bay

Detroit is a lofty 5.5-point favorite over the NFC-leading Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Last season, when these two teams faced off in Detroit, Baker Mayfield and the Bucs walked away with a 20-16 win. Then, the Lions ripped off 11 straight wins on their way to the best regular season in franchise history. Mayfield is playing at an MVP level, but they're incredibly banged up on offense as well. Lions should roll after a tough loss at Kansas City.

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