NFL Pick 'Em Pool Picks (Week 16) - Targets, Avoids, Predictions for Pick'em Contests (2025)

December 18, 2025

The top NFL Pick'em pool picks for Week 16 of the 2025 NFL season. Kyle's weekly NFL Pick'em pool targets, avoids, and predictions to help win pick'em contests.

Welcome back to our NFL Pick'em Pool Picks for Week 16 of the 2025 NFL season. The playoff picture is nearly set in both conferences, with 11 teams holding a 90% or better chance to make the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Bears (84%), Buccaneers (76%), and Steelers (66%) are also on the precipice, according to The Athletic. The AFC North and NFC South divisions have the most intrigue, but the wild-card spots feel pretty close to locked up.

Looking ahead to Week 16, we start with fireworks on Thursday night, as two 11-win teams face off, with the Rams traveling to Seattle. The winner of that game will likely take home the NFC West and the top seed in the conference. Sticking in the NFC and a non-Sunday game, the NFC North will likely be decided on Saturday night at Soldier Field between the Bears and Packers, facing off for the second time in three weeks. Including these two games, eight matchups this week feature a spread of three points or less

Every week of the 2025 NFL season, I'll lock in my picks for each game and rank them based on my confidence level in the selection. The games will be grouped into locks, semi-confident picks, and toss-ups. The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least-confident pick. As always, we'll dive into some traditional and advanced stats as well as historical trends on each side to find matchup advantages. Let's get to the picks for Week 16.

Week 16 NFL Pick'em Pool Locks

The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least-confident pick. The higher the number, the better. The projected winners are italicized.

16 - Houston vs. Las Vegas

This one could get ugly. The Raiders were anemic in Week 15 in Philadelphia. Kenny Pickett led them to just 75 total yards of offense, the lowest in a game this season. Pickett's 6.2 QBR ranked 12th-worst out of 447 QB performances this season. It's the second time this season Las Vegas has been held under 100 yards, becoming the first team this century with multiple games below 100 yards of total offense, per Stathead.

The Texans continue to look like one of the best teams in football, backed by an elite defense, forcing three-and-outs on defense on nearly 40% of opponents' drives. Houston put up 40 points last week against Arizona for the second time this season, the first time the franchise has done so since 2012.

15 - Buffalo at Cleveland

What a win for the Buffalo Bills last week in Foxborough. They overcame a 21-0 deficit to win 35-31 after scoring touchdowns on five straight drives. The Bills tied Dallas's 21-point comeback win over the Eagles in Week 12 for the largest comeback this season.

Bills QB Josh Allen talking about the team's 3-game win streak and comebacks this year against good teams, said you want to be peaking at the right time.

So I asked him if he feels like the #Bills are peaking right now.

Allen: "I feel like we're close."#BillsMafia @WGRZ pic.twitter.com/N3f2k7Jufy

— Jonathan Acosta (@JAcostaTV) December 17, 2025

Meanwhile, Cleveland's offense couldn't function last week in Chicago, posting an impossible 7.7% success rate, the lowest in any game since at least 2012. Buffalo's defense hasn't been great, but they should take care of business to stay in the fight for a potential AFC East title (27% chance).

14 - Philadelphia at Washington

This game is square in primetime on Saturday at 5:00 EST, but there is not much hype for it, justifiably so. The Commanders are one of the worst teams in the league, but they did snap their eight-game losing streak last week against the Giants. Philadelphia chewed up a bad team in the Raiders last week and should clinch the NFC East on Saturday evening, becoming the first team in 20 years to repeat as division champs.

Semi-Confident Picks For Week 16 Pick 'Em Pools

13 - San Francisco at Indianapolis

Philip Rivers is back in primetime. Rivers and the Colts face off against a strong NFC West team for the second straight week as they welcome a red-hot 49ers squad to town on Monday Night Football. San Francisco has won four in a row and has been elite on offense since Brock Purdy returned in Week 11, ranking sixth in EPA/Play and averaging 31 points per game.

The 49ers defense is still gettable, however, and could struggle against Rivers' quick passing attack. They're tied for the third most touchdowns allowed (13) against quick passes (under 2.5 seconds) and tied for the eighth highest EPA/Pass (0.14), per NFL Pro.

12 - New Orleans vs. New York Jets

Tyler Shough has been better than expected for the Saints this season. They've won back-to-back games with Shough completing 71.2% of his passes for 416 yards, one touchdown, and one interception with an 8.0 yards per attempt while adding 15 carries for 87 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. Additionally, New Orleans' defense is in the midst of a five-game streak allowing under 200 passing yards, and is one of only six defenses this season to post a streak of five games or longer.

The Jets got mowed over by Jacksonville last week, allowing Trevor Lawrence to post one of the best games by a quarterback in NFL history. Brady Cook will draw the start again in Week 16 and is unlikely to end the Saints' streak of holding opposing quarterbacks to under 200-yard passing.

11 - Minnesota at New York Giants

J.J. McCarthy built on his strong Week 14 performance against Washington and lit up the Cowboys for three total touchdowns last week. He averaged 10.0 yards per attempt and led the Vikings to 31 points for the second straight week. The Giants, meanwhile, looked like the worst team in football last week against the Commanders, never holding a lead and running only 12 plays within seven points.

10 -  Cincinnati at Miami

We could've had the second meeting between Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa, both a part of the 2020 QB class, but Tagovailoa was benched on Wednesday morning. The Dolphins were blown out in cold weather again on Monday night in Pittsburgh, and the team will likely be headed in another direction at QB next season.

"I think it's time to start playing the numbers game in Miami..

Tua Tagovailoa is gonna have a $99M cap charge if the Dolphins decide to move on from him"

Clearly Miami is gonna be moving forward without Tua one way or another" ~ @AdamSchefter #PMSLive pic.twitter.com/5Zp1vxuZU5

— Pat McAfee (@PatMcAfeeShow) December 17, 2025

The Bengals were shut out for the first time in the Burrow era last week against Baltimore. It's been a lost season for Cincinnati, and they will miss the playoffs for the third year in a row.

9 - Detroit vs. Pittsburgh

Aaron Rodgers is coming off his two best games of the season, and now returns to face the Lions in Detroit for the first time since Week 9 of the 2022 season. The last time the Steelers and Lions played in 2021 ended in a tie, during Dan Campbell's first season in Detroit. Outside of that game, the Steelers have owned the series in recent meetings, winning nine of the last 10 games since 1986.

Aaron Rodgers spoke to the media about keeping the intensity, facing the Lions, and more. @PondLehocky

— Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) December 17, 2025

The Lions' offense is still great, but the defense couldn't afford to lose star safety Brian Branch. They've been bad since Week 12's game against the Giants, ranking 29th in EPA/Play in that time.

NFL Pick 'Em Toss-Ups Of Week 16

8 - Atlanta at Arizona

We get a face-off between two former Washington Commanders quarterbacks in Kirk Cousins and Jacoby Brissett. The Falcons pulled off a stunning comeback last Thursday night against the Bucs, engineered by Cousins, who's been a comeback king his entire career, ranking 17th all-time in fourth quarter comebacks. This should be another high-scoring game as Arizona's defense has been shredded for 85 points in the last two games.

7 - Kansas City at Tennessee

This marks the first game (excluding Week 18 with benched starters) since Week 9 of the 2019 season, where Patrick Mahomes won't be starting under center for the Chiefs. Gardner Minshew will slide in to start in Week 16 to face a franchise that he's started more games against (six) than any other team in the league as a former Jacksonville Jaguar. He's 4-2 against them for his career with eight touchdowns to two picks and a 7.74 yards per attempt.

History repeating: Both Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes suffered torn ACLs in their 9th NFL seasons.

Both ACL injuries came the year after losing a Super Bowl, with both QBs already having won 3 Super Bowls prior to that. pic.twitter.com/FQf7HQ74Q5

— Jordan Schultz (@Schultz_Report) December 15, 2025

Tennessee has been more competitive of late, but still profiles as one of the worst teams in the league that will likely be overwhelmed by what has still been a good Chiefs defense.

6 - Tampa Bay vs. Carolina

It seems neither the Bucs nor the Panthers has any interest in winning the NFC South, both losing to the third and fourth place teams in the division this past week. Tampa Bay still feels like the better team and will spike to a 95% chance to win the division with a win, and still a decent chance at 44% with a loss. The Panthers move to 54% with a win, so they'd still have some work to do in Weeks 17 and 18.

5 - Baltimore vs. New England

For back-to-back weeks, the 11-win Patriots are underdogs. The Ravens are three-point favorites for a huge matchup in the AFC on Sunday Night Football. Lamar Jackson completed just eight-of-12 passes last week and took four sacks in a 24-0 win over the Bengals. The last team to complete eight or fewer passes on 12 or fewer pass attempts with at least four sacks taken was the 2022 New York Giants with Mike Glennon under center, who completed four of 11 passes for 24 yards with two picks and four sacks in a 29-3 loss to the Bears, per Stathead.

New England blew a 21-point lead last week to the Buffalo Bills and missed a chance to officially end the Bills' five-year AFC East title streak. It's tied for their fourth-largest blown lead in franchise history, with a 34-31 loss also against the Bills in Week 3 of the 2011 season. Drake Maye had his first game of the season with fewer than 200 passing yards, and he will face another good test against the Ravens' defense, which just pitched a shutout against the Bengals.

4 - Green Bay at Chicago

The Packers lost superstar edge rusher Micah Parsons to a torn ACL last week in Denver, a major blow to their Super Bowl aspirations. They travel to Chicago after winning a close game against the Bears just two weeks ago, bringing the Bears' record to 1-12 in their last 13 meetings.

Both offenses are in prime form, with Jordan Love playing his best ball, and the 2025 Bears' offense looking like one of the best in franchise history. Through 14 games, they've scored the most points (365) with the fewest turnovers (10) in their history.

3 - Denver vs. Jacksonville

The Jaguars are a legitimate contender in the AFC. The Broncos are the betting favorites to win the AFC at +300 according to FanDuel. Jacksonville crushed the Jets last week on the heels of a historic performance by Trevor Lawrence. However, that version of the Jets defense is a far cry from facing this Broncos defense at Mile High Stadium.

6 total TDs & 381 total yards 👏@trevorlawrence is your AFC Offensive Player of the Week! pic.twitter.com/Y4XbL4ISRh

— Jacksonville Jaguars (@Jaguars) December 17, 2025

Bo Nix played arguably the best game of his career in Week 15 against the Packers. It ranked as the 26th highest performance this season by EPA/Dropback (0.52) among qualified quarterbacks, per Next Gen Stats. If Nix is playing at that high a level during the playoffs, the Broncos could be headed to the Super Bowl 10 years after their most recent win.

2 - Dallas vs. Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers keep finding ways to win despite one of the worst pass protection units in recent memory. The defense is playing lights out, ranking fourth in EPA/Play since Week 10. Something will have to give here, with Dallas' offense also ranking among the elites all season.

Justin Herbert is a sneaky MVP candidate for managing crumbling pockets all season, but has lost both career meetings to the Cowboys by the score of 20-17.

1 - Los Angeles Rams at Seattle

This epic showdown on Thursday night football mirrors the stakes of last season's Week 18 clash between the 14-win Vikings and the 14-win Lions, which determined who would have to go on the road as a wild-card team or who would host the NFC playoffs. The Rams narrowly won the first meeting 21-19 in Week 11, but the Seahawks still had a shot to win at the end, despite Sam Darnold throwing four picks, but Jason Myers missed a 61-yard field goal. Myers has not missed a kick since that moment.

Coach Mike Macdonald the day before the #Seahawks host the Rams in a rather large one:

“Let’s go rip it.”@thenewstribune pic.twitter.com/G6Xd6DDKkw

— Gregg Bell (@gbellseattle) December 17, 2025

Seattle had Matthew Stafford's number in that game, holding him to his lowest yards per attempt in a game as a Ram. And Darnold's struggles against the Rams have been well discussed. What a game to kick off an elite weekend of football.

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