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John's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings - Titans vs Packers showdown slate on 11/17. His Thursday Night Football daily fantasy football advice.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! We're back at it again with some Week 11 Thursday Night Football DFS lineups. We had an interesting one as the Panthers and Falcons squared off last week, and tonight it appears that we'll have a run-heavy matchup as the Tennessee Titans (6-3) head up to Lambeau to take on the Green Bay Packers (4-6). We'll take a look and see how these teams match up and see how it affects our DFS lineups. Let's get to it!
We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues throughout this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around once again. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Titans vs. Packers NFL DFS showdown slate on November 17th. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Aaron Rodgers - QB, $15,600 (DK), $15,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 2,315 passing yards, 17 touchdowns, seven interceptions.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 11.2% (15th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 1.6% (13th), per Football Outsiders.
I'll start off tonight's slate with Aaron Rodgers. With this game likely to be a low-scoring defensive battle, with both teams looking to use the run and short passing game to their advantage, I'm afraid my lineups are going to be pretty straightforward, with nothing quite "off the wall". So I'll start with Rodgers, and although he hasn't had his best of seasons to date, he seemed to pick it up a bit last Sunday against Dallas. Tonight, I have Rodgers projected for 283.48 passing yards, 1.56 passing touchdowns, and 0.57 interceptions. Should the Packers get in a goal-line situation, though, I won't be shocked to see a vintage Rodgers roll out and see him jog into the endzone untouched.
Derrick Henry - RB, $17,400 (DK), $17,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 202 attempts, 923 rushing yards, 21 targets, 16 receptions, 154 receiving yards, nine touchdowns.
- 2022 Offensive Rush DVOA: -1.1% (16th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: 8.4% (30th), per Football Outsiders
On the other side of the field, we have the most obvious, expensive, and likely owned option on the slate. "King Henry" or as I like to call him, "Tractorcito", is proving once again that he's among the league's best rushers and one of the best running backs we've ever seen. There's obviously a strong rushing funnel here given Green Bay's porous rushing defense. My model projects Henry for 117.95 rushing yards on 26.01 attempts, with a 77% chance of finding the end zone.
Other Captains/MVPs: Christian Watson, Ryan Tannehill, Aaron Jones
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DFS Flex Plays
Ryan Tannehill - QB, $9,600 (DK), $14,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 1,352 passing yards, eight touchdowns, three interceptions.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 6.3% (17th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -7.4% (8th), per Football Outsiders
Likely handing the ball off to Henry, of course, will be Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill had a solid showing last Sunday after missing two weeks of action, completing 19 of his 36 passes for 255 yards and two touchdowns. While I think that Tennessee will be running the ball quite a bit in this one, I think there is a course to play Tannehill as well. Green Bay looked good against Dallas on Sunday, and should they end up scoring some points, it'll be up to Tannehill to keep Tennessee in the game. His projections aren't fantastic, as my model has him throwing for 178.51 passing yards, 1.25 touchdowns, and 0.7 interceptions. I will play him in somewhere between 40 and 50% of my lineups tonight.
Aaron Jones - RB, $11,200 (DK), $14,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 131 attempts, 738 rushing yards, 42 targets, 34 receptions, 228 receiving yards, five touchdowns.
- 2022 Offensive Rush DVOA: 6.3% (6th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Rush DVOA: -27.9% (1st), per Football Outsiders.
On paper, the matchup for Aaron Jones isn't great, despite the Packers coming into this one ranking sixth in rushing DVOA on the season. This doesn't bode great for the Packers running backs, but I believe it affects AJ Dillon more than it affects Aaron Jones. I'm not playing Jones because I think he'll run for 100 yards and score two touchdowns. The Titans have a projected 27% pressure rate in this one and I think that will correlate to short passes to Jones, as my model projects for Jones to log four receptions on five targets out of the backfield, providing a solid floor for single-entry lineups.
Other Flex Options: Allen Lazard, Robert Woods
DFS Value Plays
Sammy Watkins - WR, $4,800 (DK), $7,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 20 targets, 13 receptions, 206 receiving yards
- Individual Matchup (vs Terrance Mitchell): 19% targets per route, 62% catch rate, 0.35 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
Speaking of targets, seeing a nice target uptick over the last two weeks has been Sammy Watkins. While this is relative, of course, as it was only eight targets, I do think this is a solid outlook considering Watkins's cheap price on both sites. My model projects the Packers to have a 17.77% DVOA passing to "other" wide receivers in this game, and Watkins draws a strong matchup against Terrance Mitchell. My model projects Watkins to catch 2.73 of his 4.43 targets tonight for 34.53 receiving yards and an 18% chance of hauling in his first touchdown reception of the season.
Green Bay Packers - D/ST, $3,800 (DK), $9,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 21 points per game allowed, 19 sacks, seven interceptions, three fumble recoveries, one defensive touchdown.
- Projected Weighted DVOA: -5.22%
Last but not least, I'll write up the Green Bay defense. Could the Titans explode, where both Derrick Henry and Ryan Tannehill both playing at the top of their games at Lambeau on a short week? Sure. Do I find it likely? No. Should Green Bay get a lead and force Tennesee to throw the ball, I do see considerable value here in the Packers' defense which has hauled in five interceptions across the last three weeks.
Other Value Plays: Josh Lambo, Mason Crosby, Titans D/ST, Chig Okonkwo
Enjoy your night and good luck everyone!
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