RADIO
Happy Monday, RotoBallers! I hope your Week 5 has been successful so far. I had a great day yesterday, cashing out on three of the four slates, and missing out on last night's showdown. Last night was a fun defensive battle that featured some drama towards the end of the game, and it appears we have another fun divisional game tonight as the Las Vegas Raiders head into Kansas City to take on the Chiefs.
We were pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around and it's always a shame for it to come to an end. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Raiders vs Chiefs NFL DFS showdown slate on October 10th. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Patrick Mahomes - QB, $18,000 (DK), $17,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 1,106 passing yards, 11 touchdowns, two interceptions.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 35% (7th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 16.4% (22nd), per Football Outsiders.
I'll start tonight's slate off with Patrick Mahomes, and for good reason. For one, the Chiefs are showing a strong passing funnel, according to their DVOA tonight. Secondly, Mahomes has some darn good stats against the Raiders. In eight games, Mahomes has tossed for 2,546 yards, 22 touchdowns, and just three interceptions. This includes a 406 passing yards and five touchdown game against Las Vegas last season. I'll look for Mahomes to build off his terrific performance against the Buccaneers last week.
Davante Adams - WR, $17,100 (DK), $14,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 47 targets, 26 receptions, 290 receiving yards, three touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs L'Jarius Sneed): 16% targets per route, 78% catch rate, 0.32 fantasy points per route covered.
I normally wouldn't like to mention the two most expensive players on the slate (at least on DraftKings) as my top two 1.5x spot options, but I think it is warranted tonight. While I could just as easily put Travis Kelce here, and I will have a solid amount of shares of Kelce at the 1.5x spot, I slightly lean toward Adams. Adams has a great matchup against L'Jarius Sneed and should continue to be the target monster that he always has been. While his numbers have certainly dipped since joining the Raiders, I expect a breakout game tonight as Vegas looks to keep it close.
Other Captains/MVPs: Travis Kelce, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Josh Jacobs
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DFS Flex Plays
Derek Carr - QB, $10,200 (DK), $15,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 1,038 passing yards, six touchdowns, four interceptions.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 1% (21st), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 13.5% (21st), per Football Outsiders.
Throwing Adams the ball will be Derek Carr. Now Carr hasn't had a great season by any stretch of the imagination, but he always seems to pull a rabbit out of his hat, particularly in divisional games. In two matchups against the Chiefs last season, Carr threw for 524 passing yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions. While those numbers aren't good enough for me to be willing to put him in the 1.5x spot, I have no problem correlating him with a 1.5x Davante Adams or simply as a run-back option against a Mahomes/Kelce line.
Travis Kelce - TE, $10,800 (DK), $13,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 34 targets, 26 receptions, 322 receiving yards, three touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs Denzel Perryman): 14% targets per route, 100% catch rate, 0.24 fantasy points per route covered.
It's never optimal when three of my favorite roster options are three of the most expensive players on the slate, but when it's a showdown and the Chiefs are playing, it always seems to be the case. Kelce has a phenomenal matchup tonight against Denzel Perryman and the Raiders' defense and projects to a 28.05% DVOA. While he had a relatively slow game against them in their last matchup of 2021, I think we'll see shades of their first matchup where Kelce caught eight of ten targets for 119 yards.
Other Flex Options: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, JuJu Smith-Schuster
DFS Value Plays
Mecole Hardman - WR, $4,600 (DK), $7,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 12 targets, eight receptions, 71 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- Individual Matchup (vs Amik Robertson): 13% targets per route, 83% catch rate, 0.39 fantasy points per route covered.
I'm not mentioning Hardman here just because he was, as the kids would say, a "menace" on Twitter this past week, but rather since he's got a phenomenal matchup tonight. While Hardman will have to earn his targets tonight, he's always a threat to break out over the top for big gains. I think that will be the case tonight, and the Chiefs' "other" receivers have a projected DVOA of 70.95%. I love Hardman as a safer value play tonight and Justin Watson as a dart throw, as I think one of them catches a long touchdown.
Daniel Carlson - K, $3,800 (DK), $9,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 12/12 field goals made/attempted, 6/7 extra points made/attempted.
After Justin Tucker's near-perfect game-winning field goal last night, a friend of mine and I were talking about some of the best kickers in football. While I believe that Tucker sits on the throne as the best kicker in the sport, Carlson seems to be next in line. My friend, a Raiders fan, mentioned how Carlson has "kept the Raiders afloat" over the last few seasons. He's been perfect in terms of field goals this season and should see multiple opportunities if the Kansas City defense hunkers down and causes the Raiders to stall out a few times.
Other Value Plays: Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Jerick McKinnon, Brandon Bolden, Justin Watson
Enjoy your week and good luck everyone!
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