RADIO
Hey there RotoBallers! For those fortunate enough to be in the championship round in season-long formats, good luck this week! For those who missed the playoffs, DFS contests can be an excellent way to stay involved as the NFL regular season winds down. The Week 16 main slate will be a bit thinner than usual with six teams playing on Saturday, plus the standard Sunday and Monday night games. Of the games on the main slate, we have the Cardinals/Seahawks checking in with the highest over/under, set at 51.0 points. The Saints/Titans game is second, set at 50.5.
The goal of this weekly column will be to locate some of the best DFS stacks each week. Stacking, or pairing a quarterback with one of his pass-catchers, is a great way to maximize the number of points scored. This method is generally viewed as a strategy in tournaments, but I also have no problem using safe, high-floor stacks in cash games, as well.
The top Week 16 DFS stacks will be listed below, loosely sorted by my preference. This article will center on the main slate (1:00 PM and 4:00 PM Sunday) games across both DraftKings and FanDuel. Each stack will reference two pass-catchers along with their quarterback. The pass-catchers will be listed in preferential order but sometimes a three-man stack is in play as full-game stacks led to several wins in the Milly Maker in 2018. If you feel strongly about how an offense will perform in a given week then consider loading up on several offensive players from that offense. All references to team defense DVOA come from Football Outsiders while cornerback and wide receiver matchups and grade references come from Pro Football Focus.
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Week 16 DFS Tournament Stacks
Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals
- QB Russell Wilson ($7,000 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel)
- WR Tyler Lockett ($7,600 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel)
- TE Jacob Hollister ($4,200 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel)
Russell Wilson draws a fantastic matchup against an Arizona pass defense that hasn't been able to stop many offenses this season. The Cardinals secondary ranks 28th in the league in pass-defense DVOA and is allowing the most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position on the year. Wilson was quiet when these two teams met back in Week 4 but that is no reason to go away from the talented signal-caller in a smash spot.
Of the Seattle pass catchers, Tyler Lockett draws the top matchup as he will see primary coverage from slot corner Byron Murphy. Murphy is allowing .40 fantasy points per route covered and has earned just a 46.8 grade from Pro Football Focus this season. Lockett proved that he is finally over the painful shin contusion that he suffered in Week 10, finishing with eight catches for 120 yards and a touchdown last week. He is going to feast in this matchup this weekend.
Consider rounding out the three-man Seattle stack with tight end Jacob Hollister. Hollister has been quiet in recent weeks but draws an amazing matchup against an Arizona defense that has been dismal at stopping the tight end position. The Cardinals are coughing up the most fantasy points per game to the position and have allowed at least one tight end touchdown in all but three of their games played.
New Orleans Saints @ Tennessee Titans
- QB Drew Brees ($6,900 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel)
- WR Michael Thomas ($9,300 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)
- TE Jared Cook ($5,000 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel)
The Saints offense has saved their best for last as the unit has scored 80 points over the past two games, with Drew Brees tossing nine touchdowns over that span. Brees sets up well again in Week 16 as he will travel to Tennessee to take on a Titans Defense that snuffs out the run but can't stop anyone through the air. Look for the Saints to deploy a pass-heavy gameplan against a frisky Titans offense that has shown it has the firepower to keep up with New Orleans on the scoreboard.
There isn't much else to be said about Michael Thomas, who is setting a new standard at the wide receiver position. The star wideout is a PPR dream, having caught at least eight passes in 12 of 14 games this year. He has also converted an insane 133 of 160 targets into catches. Tennessee has given up some huge games to their opponents' top wide receivers in the second half of the season, including 11 catches for 198 yards and two touchdowns to Mike Evans, 7/101/0 to D.J. Moore, 11/151/1 to Tyreek Hill, 7/109/0 to Zach Pascal (with T.Y. Hilton out), and 6/119/0 to DeAndre Hopkins.
It took him about half of the season but Jared Cook finally carved out a role as the No. 2 option in the New Orleans passing attack. Cook is averaging 3.8 catches and 68.2 yards with four touchdowns over his past six games played. While Brees and Thomas will be expensive in DFS lineups, Cook offers savings while still providing plenty of upside.
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
- QB Dak Prescott ($6,400 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel)
- WR Amari Cooper ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel)
- WR Michael Gallup ($5,500 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel)
There have been some injury concerns surrounding Prescott this week as he sprained his throwing shoulder during Week 15. Those concerns should help keep Prescott's ownership levels suppressed in a prime Week 16 matchup against the Eagles where both teams will be fighting for the division title. Philadelphia's pass defense is 20th in the league in DVOA while their run defense is much better (11th). Prescott should be out there for this big matchup and has as much upside as any quarterback on the slate.
Cooper is another player who DFS gamers may not feel great about slotting into their lineups after he caught just one of two targets for 19 yards against the Rams in Week 15. Of course, Dallas was able to do whatever they wanted on the ground against Los Angeles, which limited the chances for the entire passing attack. Look for Cooper to bounce back against a weak Philly secondary in Week 16. The Eagles are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season, while Cooper has lines of 6/75/0, 10/217/3, and 5/106/0 in his three games against Philadelphia since joining Dallas in the middle of last season. Michael Gallup is a strong play for many of the same reasons as Cooper. Gallup will see primary coverage from regular burn victim Ronald Darby on Sunday. Darby has just a 42.1 grade from PFF, fourth-worst of all the projected starting cornerbacks in Week 16.
Under-Owned Week 16 DFS Stack
Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins
- QB Andy Dalton ($5,200 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel)
- WR John Ross ($4,200 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel)
- WR Tyler Boyd ($5,800 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel)
With several excellent quarterbacks in smash spots, Andy Dalton will go overlooked in what shapes up as an excellent matchup. Dalton will take aim at a Miami defense that ranks dead last in the league in pass-defense DVOA. This game features two terrible defenses and could develop into a shootout as a result. Dalton very well has three-touchdown potential despite having not reached that threshold yet this season.
Of Dalton's pass catchers, I like both John Ross and Tyler Boyd. Ross sets up as my preferred play as he has the game-breaking speed that can win DFS tournaments. The speedy wideout was well on his way to a breakout season before missing Weeks 5 through 13 with a broken clavicle. Ross moves around the formation a lot so he will see coverage from all three of Miami's starting cornerbacks. Nik Needham is the highest-ranked with a 61.2 grade from PFF while Nate Brooks and Jomal Wiltz, respectively, are the second and third-worst graded cornerbacks projected to start in Week 16. Tyler Boyd, of course, will also enjoy this prime matchup as he will mostly see Wiltz in the slot. This is a great spot to fire up a three-man Cincinnati stack.
Thanks for reading, go win some money this weekend RotoBallers!
