NFL Coaching Matters: AFC East Preview

July 30, 2023

NFL Head Coaches and Offensive Coordinators can have a major impact on fantasy football values. This article by Eli Grabanski brings up historical data on key AFC East coaches.

After every NFL season, NFL teams take the time to evaluate not only the players but also the coaching staff and front office as well. While many teams choose to retain the same head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator, a few other teams opt to go in a new direction with their coaching staff.

Today's article will look at the fantasy track record of each team's head coaches and offensive coordinators in the AFC East to help pinpoint potential fantasy values. The Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills will have the same play-callers in 2023, but the New England Patriots and New York Jets will switch it up with some new faces at offensive coordinator.

Without further ado, let's dive into the coaches of the AFC East!

Miami Dolphins

2023 Head Coach: Mike McDaniel

Mike McDaniel has been the Miami Dolphins' head coach since 2022 and also served as an offensive coordinator for the San Francisco 49ers in 2021. Below are some fantasy statistics from his career as an offensive play-caller so we can get a better idea of how to value the Miami Dolphins players in 2023.

Comparison To NFL League Averages

Above are the number of fantasy points that Mike McDaniel's offenses have produced relative to the NFL league averages at the running back, wide receiver, and tight end positions. Below you can see his career net value (sum), yearly average, per-game average, season ceiling (max), and season floor (minimum) in terms of fantasy production compared to the NFL league averages.

2023 Offensive Coordinator: Frank Smith

Frank Smith has worked as an offensive coordinator for the Miami Dolphins since 2022. Below are some fantasy statistics from his career as an offensive play-caller so we can get a better idea of how to value the Miami Dolphins players in 2023.

Comparison To NFL League Averages

Above are the number of fantasy points that Frank Smith's offenses have produced relative to the NFL league averages at the running back, wide receiver, and tight end positions. Below you can see his career net value (sum), yearly average, per-game average, season ceiling (max), and season floor (minimum) in terms of fantasy production compared to the NFL league averages.

Mike McDaniel & Frank Smith's Takeaways & Expectations

Because Frank Smith has only served as an offensive coordinator as a part of Mike McDaniel's coaching staff, this section will primarily focus on what fantasy production we've seen from the offenses that Mike McDaniel has been a part of as an offensive coordinator or head coach.

Looking at McDaniel's data for 0.5 PPR formats, there are a couple of things to pay attention to. First, Mike McDaniel's offense has yet to have an above-average running back room for fantasy purposes. Secondly, McDaniel's wide receiver room has been pretty good in terms of fantasy output - especially last year where the team scored 167.72 more points than the NFL league average (0.5 PPR). Lastly, Smith's tight-end rooms have been up and down early in his career with one good fantasy season and one subpar fantasy season.

Based on this information:

• The Miami Dolphins backfield may struggle to produce anything more than a FLEX play running back. Keep this in mind when trying to decide where to take Raheem Mostert, Devon Achane, or Jeff Wilson Jr. in your fantasy draft(s).
• Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle should once again be top-tier fantasy options at the wide receiver position.
• It's clearly not worth it to use a draft pick on tight ends Durham Smythe or Tyler Kroft in your fantasy leagues.

Fantasy Relevant Players: Tua Tagovailoa, Mike White, Skylar Thompson, Raheem Mostert, Devon Achane, Jeff Wilson Jr., Myles Gaskin, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Cedrick Wilson Jr., Robbie Chosen, Braxton Berrios, Durham Smythe, and Tyler Kroft

Buffalo Bills

2023 Offensive Coordinator: Ken Dorsey

Ken Dorsey has been the Buffalo Bills offensive coordinator since 2022. Given his offensive background, let's take a look at some of Dorsey's team offensive statistics over the course of his career in an offensive coordinator role to get a better understanding of how the Bills may utilize their offensive players in 2023.

Above are the number of fantasy points that Ken Dorsey's offenses have produced relative to the NFL league averages at the running back, wide receiver, and tight end positions. Below you can see his career net value (sum), yearly average, per-game average, season ceiling (max), and season floor (minimum) in terms of fantasy production compared to the NFL league averages.

Ken Dorsey's Takeaways & Expectations

Because Buffalo Bills head coach Sean McDermott has been more defensive-minded over the course of his career, we will look at Bills offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey's info in this section.

He's only been a play-caller for one season so far, but there are a couple of things to take notes on from Ken Dorsey's offense in year one. First, the Buffalo Bills running back room had below-average fantasy production last year and they performed slightly better in standard formats compared to PPR formats. Second, the wide receiver room balled out in 2022 with Dorsey calling the plays. Third, the Buffalo Bills tight end room was slightly below-average in all formats with regard to fantasy production during the 2022 season.

Looking ahead to next season, it's likely:

• The Bills running back room is once again a committee mess for fantasy purposes and struggles to produce a FLEX-caliber option.
• Stefon Diggs is a clear WR1 once again and Gabe Davis will have some FLEX-caliber weeks.
• The offense needs a little time to adjust to getting a talented young tight end in Dalton Kincaid. He should be a good player for dynasty leagues down the line, but you should be skeptical of him in any redraft formats.

Fantasy Relevant Players: Josh Allen, Kyle Allen, Matt Barkley, James Cook, Damien Harris, Latavius Murray, Nyheim Hines, Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Khalil Shakir, Trent Sherfield, Deonte Harty, Justin Shorter, KeeSean Johnson, Dezmon Patmon, Dalton Kincaid, and Dawson Knox

New England Patriots

2023 Offensive Coordinator: Bill O'Brien

The New England Patriots hired Bill O'Brien to be their offensive coordinator for the 2023 season. At the NFL level, O'Brien has previous experience as an offensive coordinator from his first stint with the Patriots (2011) and experience as a head coach from his time as the Houston Texans head coach (2014-2020).

Given his offensive background, let's dive into some fantasy statistics from O'Brien's experiences running an offense to better understand how the Patriots may utilize their offensive players in 2023.

Above are the number of fantasy points that Bill O'Brien's offenses have produced relative to the NFL league averages at the running back, wide receiver, and tight end positions. Below you can see his career net value (sum), yearly average, per-game average, season ceiling (max), and season floor (minimum) in terms of fantasy production compared to the NFL league averages.

Bill O'Brien's Takeaways & Expectations

Because head coach Bill Belichick is more well-known for his legendary coaching impact on the defensive side of the ball, this section will primarily focus on offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien's previous fantasy impact.

There are a couple of trends you can pick up right away on after looking at Bill O'Brien's data for 0.5 PPR fantasy leagues. First, his running back room has pretty consistently been below average in terms of fantasy production. Second, his wide receiver room has been generally above average for fantasy purposes over the course of his career as an offensive play-caller...with the exception of 2016 – which was rough, to say the least. Third, in terms of fantasy production O'Brien's tight end room has been right around the league average for most of his career – with the exception of 2011 which was one of the greatest seasons by a tight end room ever.

Based on this information:

• From a fantasy perspective, the Patriots running back room as a whole might not be quite as good as last year with Bill O'Brien calling the plays. Having said this, O'Brien did tend to favor the bell-cow approach during his previous play-calling gigs, so at least Rhamondre Stevenson should be fine at his current ADP.
• While you are probably not going to be overly excited about it, the Patriots' wide receiver room might actually be able to produce a top-30 fantasy wide receiver this year with Bill O'Brien's play-calling. The safest bet is JuJu Smith-Schuster, but DeVante Parker and Tyquan Thornton might actually be the better dice rolls at their current ADPs.
• Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki are likely going to be matchup-based streamers once again in 2023.

Fantasy Relevant Players: Mac Jones, Bailey Zappe, Trace McSorley, Rhamondre Stevenson, Pierre Strong Jr., Ty Montgomery, Kevin Harris, JuJu Smith-Schuster, DeVante Parker, Tyquan Thornton, Kendrick Bourne, Kayshon Boutte, Hunter Henry, Mike Gesicki, and Anthony Firkser

New York Jets

2023 Offensive Coordinator: Nathaniel Hackett

The New York Jets hired Nathaniel Hackett to be their offensive coordinator for the 2023 season. At the NFL level, Hackett has previously spent two seasons as the Buffalo Bills offensive coordinator (2013-2014), 36 games as the Jacksonville Jaguars offensive coordinator (2016-2018), three seasons as the Green Bay Packers offensive coordinator (2019-2021), and 15 games as the Denver Broncos head coach (2022).

Given his offensive background, let's dive into some fantasy statistics from Hackett's experiences running an offense to better understand how the Jets may utilize their offensive players in 2023.

Above are the number of fantasy points that Nathaniel Hackett's offenses have produced relative to the NFL league averages at the running back, wide receiver, and tight end positions. Below you can see his career net value (sum), yearly average, per-game average, season ceiling (max), and season floor (minimum) in terms of fantasy production compared to the NFL league averages.

Nathaniel Hackett's Takeaways & Expectations

Because head coach Robert Saleh is more well-known for his coaching impact on the defensive side of the ball, this section will primarily focus on offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett's previous fantasy impact on the offensive side of the ball.

There are a couple of trends you can pick up right away on after looking at Nathaniel Hackett's data for 0.5 PPR fantasy leagues. First, his running back room has generally been very good in terms of fantasy production. Second, his wide receiver room has been generally below average for fantasy purposes over the course of his career as an offensive play-caller. Third, Hackett's tight end room has been consistently awful in fantasy with the exception of 2020.

Based on this information:

• Breece Hall will be a great fantasy asset (RB1) in Hackett's offense as long as his recovery from his ACL injury last season continues to go according to plan. Hall's handcuff should also probably be rostered in most fantasy leagues next season so pay attention to whoever wins that job between Michael Carter, Israel Abanikanda, and Zonovan Knight.
• Garrett Wilson is likely the only fantasy-relevant wideout in this offense.
• Tyler Conklin and C.J. Uzomah are not even worth considering in this offense – there are better uses for your late-round lottery ticket picks.

Fantasy Relevant Players: Aaron Rodgers, Zach Wilson, Tim Boyle, Breece Hall, Michael Carter, Israel Abanikanda, Zonovan Knight, Garrett Wilson, Corey Davis, Allen Lazard, Mecole Hardman Jr., Randall Cobb, Denzel Mims, Tyler Conklin, and C.J. Uzomah

Follow Eli Grabanski on Twitter: @3li_handles

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