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Another week with odd conditions that affect us posting a sweep. Some crappy weather in Baltimore affected the gameplay, to the tune of four turnovers combined and the total fell under by eight points. The Dallas covering -3 was probably the easiest bet we'll place and hit all year, while the under with Cleveland and Atlanta was also a rather easy hit. Overall, a great week and hopefully a sign of things to come!
I have always and will always put the disclaimer of **I'm not a professional.** I do this for fun, use my free time to research my favorite plays, and give a little of my insight into why I'm doing a particular play. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me.
- 2022 Record: 6-5, +0.82 units
- Spread: 2-0, +2 unit
- Total/Team Total: 3-4, -1.36 units
- Moneyline: 1-1, +0.18 units
- Props: 0-0
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Week 5 NFL Betting Picks - Moneyline
Miami Dolphins (-3) at New York Jets
Sunday 10/9, 1:00pm PM EST | O/U: 45.5
Things were different with Zach Wilson under center. I'm not quite sure that they were better, but they did beat the Pittsburgh Steelers on the road. It may have (it was) the Steelers own misgivings, but it was Wilson's first game since last season. The offense wasn't exactly efficient but multiple weapons were involved. Breece Hall is the clear lead back after totaling 66 yards and a score, now Wilson just needs to focus on his great wide receiving group more. There is definitely potential here.
The Jets defense doesn't raise any eye brows, but they do have at least one takeaway in every game while allowing 5.4 yards per play, which is about middle ground for the NFL.
Miami has been the topic of conversation following the handling of Tua Tagovailoa's concussion. He's not playing this week and veteran Teddy Bridgewater will be there. Bridgewater was sufficient with almost 200 yards passing with a touchdown and interception. The run game isn't exactly consistent as Raheem Mostert led the way last week, and now Jaylen Waddle (groin) is injured, though Tyreek Hill still looms large. Bridgewater's career has been based around being a solid backup, but that can only last so long, right?
The Dolphins defense has performed rather admirably, sans the Week 2 performance against the Ravens. Though it's a bit of an outlier. They allow 6.2 yards per play (bottom 5 in the NFL) and have just one takeaway since Week 1 when they had three.
Trends dating back to last year don't paint a pretty picture for the Jets, just 1-5 ATS versus the AFC East last year. As home underdogs under Robert Saleh, they're just 3-7 ATS. However, they came out of their first four games at 2-2, with all four games being against the AFC North, a traditionally tough division. This team will be ready to go at home against a journeyman quarterback. I'm taking them with the points, but will likely sprinkle a little beer money on the moneyline as well.
Pick: New York Jets +3 (-102, FanDuel) Bet to win 1 Unit
Week 5 NFL Betting Picks - Total
Seattle Seahawks at New Orleans Saints (-5.5)
Sunday 10/9, 1:00 PM EST | O/U: 46.5
I actually read an article that said Geno Smith is somehow in the early MVP talk. I'm not one to bash hot takes because it's how some make a living, but what? The Seahawks put up 48 against the Lions in Week 4. In the three weeks prior, they didn't score more than 23 points and only crossed the 400-yard mark once. Rashaad Penny had a breakout game against the Lions as well but is now a non-participant in practice. We'll see if Smith can maintain this pace against the solid Saints defense.
New Orleans scraped by last week without Jameis Winston, Alvin Kamara, and Michael Thomas. With Andy Dalton, they posted over 330 yards of offense and scored 25 points in London. Now we're onto Week 5 and Winston and Thomas are still no-shows in practice with Kamara a "possible" to be active but will likely be limited to not prolong the injury. If you believe in PFF ratings, Dalton posted a 79.8 rating last week, which at a full-season pace would be the second-highest mark of his career.
This total opened at 40.5 and has somehow climbed almost a touchdown, even with all the reported injuries. You're telling me that with two unhealthy running backs, a backup quarterback, and one team with a depleted receiving corps, we're going to boost a total of almost a whole touchdown? Seattle's defense is trash for sure, but New Orleans' isn't and they'll be the controller here. I'm going opposite of the public.
Pick: Under 46.5 (-110, BetMGM) Bet to win 1 Unit
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Week 5 NFL Betting Picks - Total
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-3/3.5)
Sunday 10/9 8:20 PM EST | O/U: 47.5
After an 0-2 start, the Bengals have turned the tide a bit winning their last two, both by double digits. Joe Burrow has been improving by game and that's with Jamar Chase not even being heavily involved. Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd have carried most of the load, but this just tells me that the bubble is about to burst, and who better than against Baltimore's leaky defense? We can't forget Joe Mixon hasn't even gotten started yet, with Cincy averaging just 3.1 yards per carry. If they can get the ground game going, look out for this unit.
Baltimore is just a hair under 30 ppg with no real signs of stopping. Throw out last week's loss to Buffalo, considering the wet weather threw both teams off. Lamar Jackson is a menace to defenses, throwing for almost 900 yards with 11 scores while rushing for two more. The receiving corps has been steady, with Mark Andrews unsurprisingly leading the way. Now the team is slowly working J.K. Dobbins back into the mix, which will only aid this unit more y opening up a run game other than with Jackson.
I'm expecting a bounce-back performance from Baltimore combined with Cincy continuing their offensive upward trend, especially coming off a long break. These are two of the more talented offenses in all of football and while primetime unders have been hot, I'm going to fade the trend and take the over.
Pick: Over 47.5 (-110, Fanduel) Bet to win 1 Unit
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