RADIO
It’s now less than three weeks from the NBA trade deadline (Feb. 18th, 3pm). A lot can change both in the NBA and on your fantasy team overnight, and even relatively small moves in the NBA can launch guys into fantasy relevance (for example, Isaiah Thomas and Reggie Jackson last season). However, a trade can also destroy a players value just as easily - we call that a Rajon Rondo.
In this series I’ll look to highlight some of the players I think will be impacted the most from potential trades. In addition, I’ll touch on some guys whose minutes, and fantasy value, could increase or decrease substantially as the season progresses due to a variety of other factors. This usually includes younger guys on bad teams who are out of playoff contention. Even though we’re just over half way done with the fantasy season, it’s never too early to look ahead and grab guys who will have guaranteed minutes during the crucial rounds of the playoffs.
I've already taken a look at a few guys to buy low on -- see part 1 and part 2 of my Players to Buy Low. Now I’ll take a look at some interesting guys around the league to sell high on before their value goes down after the trade deadline.
NBA Trade Deadline: Players to Sell High, Part 1
Ish Smith (PG, PHI)
This pick might get me some heat, but I’m selling all my Ish Smith stock. Plain and simple, I don’t trust the Philadelphia 76ers. Towards the end of the fantasy season you need to get production from everyone on your roster, every game. If Philly needs to lose games down the stretch to grab some extra ping pong balls, you best believe Ish Smith will be the first one to get those mysterious DNP’s.
Ish has clearly been the spark to Phillys notable 6-10 record over the last 16 games since acquiring him. He’s averaged an impressive 15.9 points and 8.1 assists over that span, and an average of 6.6 assists on the season, which ranks him right at #10 in the NBA right now. Even if he keeps up this production, I’m still not buying Ish.
If you take a closer look at his stats, he’s not quite as valuable as some fantasy owners might think. As I’ve mentioned before, I like to use ESPN’s player rater as a good baseline of overall value. Surprising to some, Ish Smith sits all the way at #96, right in between P.J Tucker and Evan Turner. Crazy right?
Basically, Ish is an assist specialist, only providing you value in that category and some production in points and steals. Other than that he might actually be hurting your team. When it comes to FG%, Ish Smith sits at #410, barely above Kobe Bryant (#414) and Ricky Rubio (#411). In fact, there are only 422 players who qualify to be rated in this category (based on minimum attempts), making Ish Smith the 12th most harmful player in this category in the entire NBA. He’s shooting 39% from the field on a gaudy 16.7 attempts a game with the 76ers, and worse yet only 1.6 of those attempts are for three.
Now I’m not saying you should drop him. If you have a guard heavy team that likely punts FG% anyways, Ish Smith fits right in and likely supports your key categories in assists, steals, and points. However, if your team is centered around big men categories (rebounds, blocks, fg%) I would avoid rostering Ish at all costs.
I’ve definitely focused on his weaknesses as a fantasy player, but you certainly still have some leverage when it comes to dealing him. Any team that’s guard heavy, or in major need of assists, would probably love to have Ish. And, for some reason, he's a sexy player right now -- people now know his name and love owning him, so you could get some value in return.
Overall, I think he’s at his peak when it comes to fantasy value, so get something in return for him now before everyone else realizes he might not be that much more valuable than Evan Turner.
Ryan Anderson (PF/C, NO)
Oh boy, this article couldn’t have been timed better. Ryan Anderson is coming off arguably his best game of the season against the Sacramento Kings the other night, and his stock is at an all time high. He dropped 36 points (30 in the first half), nine rebounds, four assists, five 3PM, and even shot 13/25 (52%) from the field and 5/6 (83%) from the free throw line. Wow. That’s what I call an all-around performance. He didn’t record any steals or blocks, but we don’t expect Rudy Gobert to make three’s either.
Anthony Davis and the rest of the Pelicans have battled through a variety of injuries this year, leaving the completely healthy (for once) Ryan Anderson to grab some extra minutes and usage on the court. Although Anderson has been producing, that hasn’t exactly turned into W’s for the Pelicans. They haven’t been able to put a string of wins together and are sitting at 17-28 record a little over half way through the season.
With their playoff hopes nearly out of reach, the Pelicans will probably look to make a splash in the trade market to acquire some future assets to build around Anthony Davis. Ryan Anderson’s contract expires this season and has a reasonable price tag at $8.5 million (relative to Eric Gordon’s $15.5 million price tag). He is an ideal four-month rental for a contender who wants to bolster their roster for the playoffs.
Just spit balling some trade ideas (I just made these up, I'm not Woj-bombing here), I could see something like Ryan Anderson for Brandon Jennings and a lottery protected 1st round pick. Or maybe Ryan Anderson and Norris Cole for Ty Lawson, Terrance Jones, and a future 2nd Round pick. I think both of those trades make some sense for everyone, but there are a ton of other options out there, and Anderson will likely be a popular name in trade talks over the next couple weeks.
Regardless of where Anderson ends up, it will not be nearly as fantasy friendly as New Orleans right now. Although they have a super star in Anthony Davis, Alvin Gentry has been running a lot of the offense through Anderson, and he has had to boost his usage even more with all the injuries. Whether Anderson ends up in Detroit, Houston or any other playoff team, he’ll be at best the 3rd or 4th option on offense. I mean imagine him on Houston having to not only deal with Motiejunas and Capela for playing time, but competing with James Harden, Dwight Howard and Trevor Ariza for touches and shot attempts. That wouldn’t look pretty for his fantasy production.
Even on Detroit, which would basically be a remake of the 09’ Magic with Andre Drummond as Dwight Howard, Anderson’s value would still take a big hit. He would have to rely even more on spot-up attempts than he does this season, as he would basically be tasked with sitting on the three-point line around a Reggie Jackson/ Andre Drummond pick and roll all game. While he would definitely have nights that resemble his current production, they would be far and few in between, and Anderson would see plenty of nights where Ersan Ilyasova gets hot and he ends up watching the majority of the game from the bench.
Although I’ve only focused on two completely arbitrary potential Anderson trade locations, I think they’re among the most feasible and fantasy friendly options out there. Anderson has been red hot this season, but it’s very very likely he finds a new home soon, resulting in his fantasy value plummeting. He might fetch a pretty good return right now, so use all your leverage before it’s too late.
Lou Williams (PG/SG, LAL)
The Los Angeles Lakers currently own the 2nd worst record in the NBA at 9-39, “trailing” only the Philadelphia 76ers, who sit at an equally ugly 7-40. And to absolutely no one’s surprise, the Brooklyn Nets are giving both teams a run for their ping pong balls with a 12-34 record. This is noteworthy because the Lakers owe the 76ers (Via Phoenix) their first round pick in this year’s draft if it falls out of the top 3. Worst case scenario for Lakers fans is sucking this season only to give the #4 pick in the draft to the 76ers.
If the Lakers finish with the 2nd worst record, two teams would have to jump them in the draft, which is pretty unlikely. However, if they finish with the 3rd worst record behind Philly and Brooklyn, only one team would have to jump into the top 3 ahead of them, which has happened in each of the last 11 years (and then I stopped counting). Basically it happens all the time, and would nearly guarantee the Lakers enter this offseason with nothing gained from the season before.
Why did I just make you read 200 words about the Lakers offseason in a piece about Lou Williams you ask? Because Lou Williams has the highest PER on the team (Brandon Bass doesn’t count, he only plays 18 minutes a game) and is making losing – and keeping their pick - that much harder.
Sure, Lou Williams isn’t single handedly pushing the Lakers out of a top 3 pick. But I would bet the Lakers will do anything they can to ensure that’s not even a remotely possible scenario. Whether it’s via a trade, or just a massive change in the Lakers rotation, Lou Williams will be seeing less playing time in Los Angeles without a doubt. The Lakers even have two promising young guards in D’Angelo Russell and Jordan Clarkson that not only need more playing time to gain experience and develop, but would most definitely help them lose in the short term. And that's not even to mention Kobe Bryant, who will be wrapping up his retirement tour in front of sold out crowds that are there to see him, not Lou Williams. Sounds almost too logical, but there’s no way Lou Williams stock will ever be higher this fantasy season than it is right now.
Now that we’re back to fantasy, I should mention that Lou is the #73 ranked player on ESPN for overall fantasy value, right in the range of guys like Victor Oladipo, DeAndre Jordan, and Avery Bradley. That’s pretty impressive considering his average draft position on both ESPN and Yahoo was somewhere around the 12th or 13th round, meaning he probably went undrafted in a lot of leagues. While he is producing nearly 7 rounds above what everyone thought, Williams owners currently have the opportunity to reap the benefits of great drafting, and sell high on a player that has a very bleak fantasy future going forward this season.
However, because there hasn’t been much trade buzz surrounding Lou, I think there’s still plenty of leverage to get some great return for him right now. I would look to get guys like Wes Matthews or Rodney Hood, who are both trending in the right direction. Unlike some of my other Buy Low/ Sell High recommendations, I think if you own Lou Williams you need to unload him as soon as possible. Don’t trade him for nothing, but if someone offered me Devin Booker or even Dennis Schroder straight up for him, I would definitely think about it.
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