October 12, 2016

Brad Leibfried looks at three overvalued NBA forwards to avoid as potential draft busts in 2016-17 fantasy basketball leagues. Think twice before drafting them.

What's up RotoBallers. Welcome back to another edition of our overvalued players, or guys that you may want to take a longer look at on draft day. Today I will take a look at overvalued forwards for 2016-17 fantasy basketball drafts. Hopefully my analysis helps you make better decisions for your drafts, and pick some winning squads.

You can read about more overvalued players and guys to avoid, if that's your thing. And don't forget to check out our famous fantasy basketball draft sleepers and values list, which is updated daily with all our draft recommendations. Good luck RotoBallers!

Editor's Note: RotoBaller has the best Premium NBA Subscription, only $29.99 for the full season. We have all the preseason tools to help win your drafts, and in-season tools to win your seasonal and daily leagues: Draft Kit, Premium Rankings, Sleepers List, Late-Round Fliers, Early-Round Avoids, DFS Cheat Sheets, Lineup Picks, Expert Lineups, Stacks and Avoids.

Forwards Who May Not Return Their Draft Day Cost

LeBron James - SF, CLE

Current ADP: 5.5

James may still be the greatest basketball player on the planet, however his average draft position (ADP) of 5.5 is simply too high for what he brings to a fantasy basketball team.  James will turn 32 this season - and last season we saw his minutes, scoring, 3-point shooting, blocks, steals and assists all drop from the previous year.

He still put up spectacular numbers with 25.3 points, 7.4 rebounds and 6.8 assists last year - but he does not offer the same numbers he did as a younger player.  Also of note, coach Ty Lue has said he will sit James and others to rest for the playoffs, which does not bode well for James who played 76 games last year.

In roto leagues, James will still be well worth a first round pick. However in head-to-head leagues, his occasional rest day is likely to cost you a few wins throughout the year. Look towards a more consistent option such as Kawhi Leonard early in drafts.

Kevin Love - PF, CLE

Current ADP: 35

Like his teammate, Kevin Love continues to be overvalued in fantasy circles.  Gone are the days in which Love scored 26 points and pulled down 13 rebounds per game.

In two seasons with Cleveland, Love has averaged 16.2 points and 9.8 rebounds. Along with good shooting numbers, and 3-pointers, these are solid stats from a power forward. However, given that he is a complete non-contributor in steals, blocks, and assists, Love loses much of his fantasy appeal for a player being picked at the end of round three in average leagues.

If you are searching for a big man who can contribute in these areas you should look to a player such as Ryan Anderson, going 47 picks after Love on average, who can bring a few elite stats at the forward position.

Harrison Barnes - SF, DAL

Current ADP: 77.6

Barnes was one of the pieces that was discarded from Golden State to make room for Kevin Durant, as he signed a max deal in Dallas.  His ADP of 77.6 shows that many are believers in Barnes getting a much bigger role of the offense with the Mavericks.

It is certainly logical that he will see a boost in production, as he has increased his scoring in each of his first four seasons. But it is important to remember that although he was not getting many shot attempts per game, those attempts were generally wide open.  Also important to note, Barnes has never been an all-around good fantasy player having never averaged over 0.8 steals, 0.2 blocks, or 1.8 assists in his career.

Another stat to monitor would be his shooting percentage, which has been at 48.2% and 46.6% over the past two years respectively.  Through two preseason games, Barnes is just 4-for-18 from the field. And although it is just two preseason games, that will be worth noting throughout the season.