RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~215 Overall
CURRENT ADP: ~269
ANALYSIS: The 2022 offseason has been good for Mo Alie-Cox's (MAC) fantasy value. Jack Doyle retired after nine seasons with the Colts and MAC was handed a generous three-year, $18 million contract extension with $8.2 million guaranteed. Indianapolis did spend a third-round pick on Jelani Woods out of Virginia, but rookie tight ends typically don't see the field very much their first season. Just ask Colts second-year tight end Kylen Granson, who saw just 15 total targets as a rookie and played on fewer than 25% of the snaps in 13 of 17 games.
So now Alie-Cox steps into a much more prominent role as the lead tight end of the bunch. He hasn't historically been a steady producer, but that could change in 2022 for a multitude of reasons. First, it's possible he's Matt Ryan's second-favorite target in the passing game by default. After Michael Pittman Jr., the wide receiver depth chart is as follows: Parris Campbell (missed 34 games in three seasons), Alec Pierce (rookie), Keke Coutee (has only played 25 of 65 games in four seasons), Dezmon Patmon (four career targets), and Mike Strachan (three career targets). Second, Matt Ryan is now the quarterback in Indianapolis, and he has a history of targeting his tight ends. From Kyle Pitts to Austin Hooper, all the way back to Tony Gonzalez, Ryan has a knack for getting the ball into his tight end's hands.
Frank Reich is no stranger to involving his tight ends in the passing game either. Zach Ertz was a top-five tight end for multiple seasons in Philadelphia, while Eric Ebron had a career year in 2018 with a career-high 13 touchdowns on a career-high 110 targets.
At 6'4" with an almost 36" arm length (100th percentile), Alie-Cox found himself as one of the Colts' best weapons in the red zone last season. He turned 10 red zone targets into four touchdowns (40%). If he sees even 15 red zone targets in a full-time role in 2022, a 40% conversion rate would give him six touchdowns on the season. Add to the equation MAC's fourth-highest aDOT amongst all tight ends (9.4), his 13.2 yards per reception, and number one overall juke rating (25%) a season ago, and there's a lot to like about his potential this season as the number one tight end in a Matt Ryan-led offense. Don't sleep on Mo Alie-Cox.
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