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Steve Janik's MLB betting picks for 4/6/2021. He breaks down today's MLB slate and recommends the top wagers and bets on money lines, totals, run lines, and more!
Monday was a bit of a let down. My plays went 0-1-1 after the Pirates gave up a game tying solo home run with two outs in the bottom of the fifth; truly a tough beat. Then the Dodgers put up seven runs in the first three innings, killing their first half under early. No worries, we have today, tomorrow, and the rest of the season to make up for it!
I'm Steve Janik and I'm here to bring my insight, analysis and picks to help you make informed betting decisions this season. I've been writing up betting picks for RotoBaller since the 2019 NCAA football season and have covered both football and baseball. I am probably most known around these parts for my wild 2020 KBO gambling success when that was the only sport we had to bet on during the COVID shutdowns. I also handicapped some MLB last season, but it didn't end up very well, going 17-24-2 (-9u). Just like everything else with 2020, we want to put that in the past!
We have been really increasing our sports betting content at RotoBaller, and this year will be no different. Tommy Bell will be handling things over in our premium offering, while I will be carrying the free picks throughout the season with some help from Jamie Steed. Early on in the season, my plays will be smaller in volume, as we have very little info on teams and players. As things start to progress, expect to see more action. Follow me on Twitter @stevejanik6 this baseball season for some fun banter and also extra plays! Below are my plays for Tuesday, April 6. Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
Moneyline Record: 0-1 (-1u)
O/U Record: 0-1 (-1u)
Runline Record: 1-0 (+.86u)
First 5 Record: 1-1-2 (-.1u)
Prop Record: 0-0-1
2021 Total Record: 2-3-3 (-1.2u)
Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics
O/U: 9 | HOU -115, OAK +105
HOU: Zack Greinke; OAK: Dylan Bundy
Greinke came out on opening day shut up any doubters because of his age, spinning six frames with four strikeouts and allowing just three hits. The 37-year-old has a history of starting the season strong, holding a career 2.89 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over 423.1 career innings in March/April. The Astros lineup started the season on fire and kept it going Monday, despite eventually losing; they've now scored at least six runs in every game to start the season. They're still loaded from top to bottom and guys like Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez are primed for big seasons.
The hot topic around the Angels is obviously superstar Shohei Ohtani, and after taking Monday off, he should return to the lineup tonight. His added prowess makes the lineup doting Mike Trout even more deadly. As an offense in 2020, the Angels racked up a .359 wOBA, .230 ISO, and a 130 wRC+ against RHP at home. Canning will be likely be looking for some back up, as he has to face this stout Houston lineup. However, the 24-year-old has shown some strong signs through 146 career innings, posting a 4.36 ERA and a 24 K%, but his Statcast metrics show some work still to be done, including a 26th percentile Barrel %, which is a number he'll want to limit in this one.
UPDATE: Dylan Bundy is now the listed LAA starter for Tuesday afternoons game. The righty turned in a solid outing against the White Sox on opening day, going six strong while allowing three runs on six hits with six strikeouts and one walk. This is just his second season with the Angels, and while he impressed for the most part in 2020, he struggled at times in Angels Stadium, posting a 4.38 ERA with a .393 SLG. However, those numbers are inflated by left-handed batters. Against righties, Bundy held hitters to a .232 average with a 20/3 K/BB. There’s a solid mix of both in this Houston lineup, and barring any days off, Bundy will have his hands full.
**UPDATE: Upon this writing Monday evening, every site had Griffin Canning listed as the starter for the Angels, then this morning, it shifted to Bundy. I still like the play posted, but Bundy is a totally different animal, compared to Canning; play at own risk.*** I focus pretty heavily on pithing early in the year, because in most cases, veterans like Greinke, are just built to be ready for the beginning of the long, grueling season. Plus consider the ‘Stros used five relievers Monday, so they’ll need a big start from the ageless star. While the Angels lineup is no joke, the Astros just seem to carry more of a consistent punch, so give me the trash can bangers.
Pick: Astros ML (-115, BetMGM) 1 Unit (be sure to read above paragraph)
Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers
O/U: 9.5 | TOR -130, TEX +105
TOR: Tanner Roark; TEX: Dane Dunning
It's slightly difficult to understand how Tanner Roark is still starting MLB games at 34, especially following last year's dismal output where he posted career worsts in ERA, WHIP, and HR/FB %. Statcast agrees it was an atrocious season, with most major categories falling in the 30th percentile or worse. Luckily he has an offense to back him up, and they opened up a little bit in the series' opener. They're a righty-heavy lineup, but hit RHP pretty well in 2020, with a .193 ISO and 101 wRC+. They'll continue to rely on their youth until George Springer (oblique) returns.
Dunning makes his Rangers debut after being the key return in the Lance Lynn trade. Once a first-round pick of the Nationals, the righty debuted in 2020 and posted solid results. His stuff isn't anything to write home about, but utilizes a sinker and slider to put guys away. He probably wishes the lineup behind him had more pieces to it, and they're polar opposite of patient at the plate, but facing a guy like Roark, Joey Gallo and company will look to make things happen.
Roark is fresh off a career-worst year and is most likely fighting for his job, but that doesn't mean he'll deliver. It's hard not to be impressed by Dunning, but he'll have his hands full with this Jays lineup. I'm trusting in Toronto's bats to stay strong and for Texas to get out of the cellar.
Pick: Over 9.5 (-114, Draftkings) 1 Unit
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