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Steve Janik's MLB betting picks for 5/7/2021. He breaks down today's MLB slate and recommends the top wagers and bets on money lines, totals, run lines, and more!
Welcome to another edition of RotoBaller’s free MLB Betting Picks. Our betting team is here to bring you top notch insight, including analysis, trends, stats, and more! Let’s have a great start to the weekend with a winning Friday!
A full disclaimer that I'm not even close to a professional, but I thoroughly enjoy doing research and making what I see to be educated picks. There's a lot of different bets to take action on nowadays, and I look over every prop, total, runline, etc. to try and find some value. I will say it's tough to find props available up until a few hours before first pitch, so check out my Twitter below for any adds not in the article.
Another 1-1 day this week is par for the course. I’m close and starting to get tore comfortable but just haven’t picked up much consistency yet. Milwaukee and Philadelphia going scoreless to cash the F5 under was music to my ears. The full-game over losing in the Atlanta/Washington game was tough to swallow, but I’d take that bet again if I could. Follow me on Twitter @stevejanik6 this baseball season for some fun banter and also extra plays! Below are my plays for Friday, May 7. Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
- Moneyline Record: 2-4 (-2.25u)
- O/U Record: 8-7-2 (+.28u)
- Runline Record: 3-4 (-0.6u)
- First 5 Record: 5-4-3 (-.31u)
- Prop Record: 2-4-1 (-1.71u)
- 2021 Total Record: 20-23-6 (-4.59u)
Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles
O/U: 9 | BOS -154 BAL +140
Boston: Eduardo Rodriguez; Baltimore: Matt Harvey
Rodriguez has answered any worries about the “dead arm” that kept him from starting on Opening Day. He’s 4-0 with a 4.18 ERA and a 31/3 K/BB over 28 IP. The southpaw has allowed five homers, but he’s pounding the zone, working ahead in counts and limiting hard contact. Offensively, the Sox devour RHP, especially on the road, housing a .795 OPS, .229 ISO, .344 wOBA, and 125 wRC+, all tops in MLB.
Everyone laughed off the Orioles signing the 32-year-old Harvey this offseason, but he’s silenced those doubters quite well. Posti a respectable 4.06 ERA with a 22/9 K/BB over 31 innings. Statcast predicts a steep falling off though, with his xERA, among others, falling below the 50th percentile. Offensively, the Orioles have held their own against LHP, posting a .733 OPS and a 108 wRC+ but Trey Mancini is realistically the only bat pitchers need to worry about on a day-to-day basis.
Boston has enjoyed being away from home, with a 10-3 record covering the run line, meanwhile Baltimore has struggled to that at home, being just 3-11 as hosts. Give Boston a big pitching and hitting advantage Friday, and I’ll take the plus money on the Red Sox to cover.
Pick: Boston -1.5 (+105, Foxbet/Fanduel) 1 Unit
Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers
O/U: 8.5 | TEX -120 SEA +108
Seattle: Chris Flexen; Texas: Mike Foltynewicz
Flexen has made a nice return to MLB after a year in the KBO. He’s 2-1 with a 3.33 ERA and a 21/6 K/BB over 27 IP. The righty has allowed one run or less three times, and in his other two starts, he allowed five and three runs, respectively. Offensively, the Mariners don’t have a lot to write home about, but on the road against RHP, they go boast a .172 ISO, a top 10 mark in MLB.
Folty has been in much better form over his last three starts, allowing just six runs over 17.2 IP with 16 strikeouts and just one walk. The veteran righty really has struggled with keeping the ball in the park, allowing nine homers already, including four in those previous three outings. This Rangers lineup hasn’t changed much, posting a 30 K% against RHP and they struggle at home, scoring just 3.1 runs per game at Globe Life Park and hold under a .700 OPS as a team.
The offenses in this game worry me, but I like Flexen a lot. Foltynewicz’s inability to keep the ball in the yard won’t hurt as much in the big home park, but his recent form will hit some regression soon, and I think it comes on Friday. Add in a boost to Seattle getting the day off to rest their stout bullpen that holds a 2.74 ERA. I won’t be surprised if the Mariners are favorites by first pitch.
Pick: Seattle ML (+105, Draftkings) 1 Unit
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