X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Michael Conforto - Budding Superstar or Extraordinary April?

Vin DiBetta takes a close look at advanced statistics supporting Michael Conforto's superb April to evaluate whether it is sustainable for the 2017 MLB season.

We all know the timeless adage, "Fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me... you can't get fooled again.” At least that's the version I learned from George W. Bush.

As of May 1st, 2016, Michael Conforto was sporting a 196 wRC+ fueled by a 1.118 OPS, a .411 BABIP, and 6.9% K-BB%. Michael Conforto then battled injuries, and poor play, and when it was all said and done, he finished the year with a 96 wRC+, 15.3% K-BB%, and a .724 OPS over 348 plate appearances.

One year later, Michael Conforto, still a mere 24 years of age, has posted a 179 wRC+ fueled by a 1.093 OPS and a .358 BABIP. He has bumped his walk rate up to 14.1% BB% while cutting down to a 19.6% K%. Comparatively, he finished 2016 with a 10.3% BB% and a 25.6% K%. Is this a sign of a legitimate breakout season or simply an excellent April from a fast starter who will ultimately fade?

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Michael Conforto: Is His Best Yet to Come?

As of May 1st, 2016, Michael Conforto sported a 10.5% BB% and a 17.4% K%. Michael Conforto has shown plate discipline nothing short of elite in 2017. Mike Trout has a 13.1% BB% and a 20.8% K% and represents a good comparison of a player who walks a ton and strikes out a good amount as well. However, these plate discipline numbers don't seem incredibly sustainable, seeing as Conforto's underlying plate discipline statistics haven't changed much from his 2016 campaign, such that nearly a 4% spike in BB% and a 6% cut in K% would make sense.

Notably, Conforto has posted nearly identical Swing%: 44.1% in 2016 compared to a 44.7% in 2017. His contact rate has actually fallen: 78.4% Contact% in 2016, compared to a 75.9% Contact% in 2017. Perhaps even more notably, Conforto has been whiffing at a few more pitches, seeing as in 2016 he had a 9.5% Sw-Str% and a 10.5% Sw-Str% thus far in 2017. Furthermore, when compared to an established hitter with similar walk rates and strikeout rates, Mike Trout, we see again that the plate discipline numbers Michael Conforto has posted thus far in 2017 seem unsustainable. As a disclaimer, comparing most players to Mike Trout usually ends poorly, but when it comes to plate discipline statistics, a comparison becomes more realistic.

When it comes to career rates, Mike Trout is more selective with his swings, with a 24.2% O-Swing% and a 56.9% Z-Swing%, compared to Conforto's rates of 26.4% and 66.4%, respectively. Mike Trout also makes more contact with pitches he offers at, highlighted by a 81.2% Contact% and a 7.2% Sw-Str%. When compared with Michael Conforto's career rates of 78.2% Contact% and 9.6% Sw-Str%, we see that Mike Trout likely should be taking more walks and striking out less than Michael Conforto, something that he has done in his career. Thus far in 2017 we see the opposite, however, as Conforto has walked at a higher rate and struck out at a lower rate than Trout. All in all, one can conclude that the encouraging plate discipline changes Michael Conforto seemingly has made in 2017 could potentially be nothing but a mirage.

The next issue with Michael Conforto's breakout lies in his performance and playing time against southpaws. The Mets are still hesitant to play Conforto against left-handers, seeing as he has only had 10 PAs, compared to other Mets such as Asdrubal Cabrera and Neil Walker who have had 30 PAs and 35 PAs against left-handers in 2017, respectively. For his career, over 78 PAs, Michael Conforto has posted an 11 wRC+ against southpaws, compared to a 134 wRC+ against right-handers over 556 PAs.

In his minuscule 10 PA sample against southpaws thus far in 2017, Conforto has four strikeouts, one walk, and two hits: a single and a solo home run.  The home run actually represents his only homer against left-handers in his career, and while some may read more into this home run, it would be better to dismiss it as luck and consider his continued struggles against left-handers as unchanged. Even if the Mets were to give Conforto consistent playing time against left-handers, there exists no evidence to suggest he will improve against them.

It doesn't take a rocket-scientist to tell you Michael Conforto's 33.3% HR/FB will regress, as will his .358 BABIP, so the real question with Michael Conforto should be what will he be once those numbers do begin to normalize?  Unfortunately, it looks like Conforto hasn't made any drastic changes to his approach at the plate, and in terms of batted balls, Conforto has actually sacrificed 10% worth of FB% for nearly a 10% increase in GB%, as well as sacrificing 3% worth of Hard% for Soft%.  Neither of these tradeoffs are ones you want to see from a power hitter, and they raise even more questions about the legitimacy of the Michael Conforto breakout.

Overall, Michael Conforto is still a high-upside fantasy baseball option who has been known to go on extended hitting tears, but it doesn't really look like he has made any significant changes, and thus the holes in his game still limit him from taking the leap from upside to elite.  Take this as you will, but Michael Conforto looks like a prime sell-high candidate, as he possesses enough talent for someone in your league to believe that his breakout is legitimate.




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
Austin Cindric

Remains an Overrated Road Racer
Brad Keselowski

Likely to Brush Past Chicago Street Course to Focus on Daytona
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek One of the Best Underdog Options After Strong Runs at Mexico City and Last Year
Cole Custer

Strong Mexico City Run and Xfinity Series Chicago Win Make Him a Solid DFS Option
Erik Jones

Likely Not Good Enough on Road Courses for DFS Consideration Despite Poor Qualifying Result
Noah Gragson

May Be Better Than Other Cheap DFS Options
Riley Herbst

Despite Decent Mexico City Run, Don't Expect Riley Herbst to Contend at Chicago
Cody Ware

Is a Road Course Veteran, but It's Rarely Helped Him in NASCAR
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Is The Heavy Favorite to Win at Chicago Street Course
Christopher Bell

Should Be Strong Despite Practice Struggles at Chicago Street Course
Cam Ward

"Not Expecting" to be handed Starting Job
Chase Claypool

Eager to Get Back on the Field
Wyatt Langford

Activated, Playing on Saturday
Jay Huff

on the Move to Indiana
Cam Whitmore

Wizards Acquire Cam Whitmore from the Rockets
LaJohntay Wester

Stands out on Special Teams
Clarke Schmidt

Likely to Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Nolan Arenado

Scratched from Saturday's Lineup
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Starting on Saturday
Corbin Carroll

Activated from 10-Day Injured List
Cincinnati Bengals

Shemar Stewart, Bengals Continue Contract Talks, No Progress Made
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Potential Giannis Antetokounmpo Trade may not Happen Until "August, September"
Ha-Seong Kim

Removed Early During Season Debut
ARI

Christian Fischer Retires From NHL at 28
NHL

Spencer Martin Moves to Russia
WAS

Anthony Beauvillier Re-Signs With Capitals for Two Years
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Sitting Out With Foot Issue
Isaiah Neyor

Impresses at Minicamp
Houston Rockets

Jock Landale Waived by Rockets
Bo Bichette

Back in Blue Jays Lineup
Jonas Valančiūnas

Jonas Valanciunas Considering Returning to Europe
Miles Sanders

Works With Starters During Mandatory Minicamp
Jabari Walker

Signs Two-Way Deal With Sixers
Chimere Dike

Titans Could Move Chimere Dike Inside
Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith not Guaranteed Roster Spot
Anthony Bradford

Working Hard to Win Back Starting Job
Byron Young

Still Improving?
Cody Simon

Jonathan Gannon has Been Impressed With Cody Simon
SirVocea Dennis

has Impressive Offseason
Trevor Penning

Could Still Have a Role in New Orleans
Jonathan Kuminga

Warriors Decline Recent Offer for Jonathan Kuminga
Orlando Magic

Moritz Wagner, Magic Agree to One-Year Deal
Clarke Schmidt

Placed on Injured List
José Soriano

Jose Soriano Throws Gem Against Braves
Robbie Ray

Earns Ninth Win in Complete Game
T.J. Watt

Likely to Reset the Edge-Rush Market
George Springer

Blasts Two Homers, Drives in Four
James Wood

Goes Yard in Five-Hit Night
Bradley Beal

Suns Discussing Potential Buyout
Los Angeles Lakers

Jaxson Hayes Staying with the Lakers
NBA

Damian Lillard "Open" to Signing With a Team This Offseason
Max Muncy

Out at Least Six Weeks
Clarke Schmidt

Leaves Start with Forearm Tightness
Colson Montgomery

Promoted to the Major Leagues
Pittsburgh Steelers

Omar Khan, Steelers Agree to Three-Year Contract
Max Muncy

Goes on Injured List With Knee Bruise
Max Muncy

Out of Thursday's Lineup
James Wood

Joining Home Run Derby
SJ

Sharks Claim Nick Leddy Off Waivers
Max Scherzer

Cleared to Start on Saturday
SJ

Sharks Sign Dmitry Orlov to Two-Year, $13 Million Contract
CAR

Nikolaj Ehlers Joins Hurricanes on Six-Year Contract
Kodai Senga

Could be "in Play" to Return Before All-Star Break
Chau Smith-Wade

Having Stellar Offseason
Ace Bailey

Inks Rookie Contract With Jazz
Divine Deablo

Could be the Quarterback of the Defense
Isaiah Rodgers

a Likely Starter for the Vikings
Jacob Monk

Sees Plenty of Work With Starters
Avonte Maddox

has Impressed Dan Campbell
Boston Celtics

Josh Minott Inks Deal With Celtics
Chicago Bears

Ruben Hyppolite Shows Notable Improvement
Sandro Mamukelashvili

Heading to Toronto
Jared McCain

Not on 76ers Summer League Roster
Dylan Harper

Unavailable for California Classic
COL

Brent Burns Inks One-Year Deal with Avalanche
STL

Blues Land Pius Suter on Two-Year Deal
Morgan Frost

Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
WPG

Gustav Nyquist Moves to Winnipeg
Cody Glass

Devils Re-Sign Cody Glass to Two-Year Deal
PIT

Anthony Mantha Joins Penguins
Cleveland Cavaliers

Larry Nance Jr. Headed Back to Cavaliers
Eric Gordon

Remaining with 76ers
Los Angeles Lakers

Deandre Ayton Joining Lakers
Emil Heineman

Signs Two-Year Deal with Islanders
Simon Holmstrom

Re-Signs with Islanders for Two Years
UTA

Nate Schmidt Signs Three-Year Deal with Mammoth
UTA

Brandon Tanev Moves to Utah on Three-Year Contract
NJ

Evgenii Dadonov Joins Devils on One-Year Deal
BUF

Sabres Snap Up Alex Lyon on Two-Year Contract
Dallas Mavericks

Dante Exum Returning to Dallas
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Has Surgery to Repair a Turf Toe Injury
Bud Cauley

in Great Form Ahead of John Deere Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

a Player to Avoid at John Deere Classic
Jake Knapp

Riding Momentum Ahead of John Deere Classic
PGA

Sungjae Im Looking for Consistency at John Deere Classic
Ryan Gerard

a Solid Option at John Deere Classic
Rickie Fowler

Looking to Rebound at John Deere Classic
Cameron Champ

a Volatile Option at John Deere Classic
Jackson Suber

Staying Below 70 is Key to Success for Jackson Suber
Kevin Roy

Playing Better Heading into John Deere Classic
Justin Lower

Hoping for Something Positive in Illinois
Ben Kohles

a Long Shot at John Deere Classic
Stephan Jaeger

Attempts to Stop Roller-Coaster Ride
Beau Hossler

Needs a Challenge in Illinois
Harry Higgs

Has Potential at John Deere Classic
Nick Dunlap

Keeps Plugging Through Tough 2025 Season
Kevin Yu

a Near Must-Play at TPC Deere Run
PGA

J.T. Poston Returns to John Deere Classic Looking for Another High Finish
Thriston Lawrence

a Decent Fit For John Deere Classic
Tom Kim

Not Finding Much to be Happy About Ahead of John Deere Classic
Si Woo Kim

is a Prohibitive Fade at John Deere Classic
Ben Griffin

is the Appropriate Favorite at TPC Deere Run
Ilia Topuria

Becomes The New Lightweight Champion
Charles Oliveira

Knocked Out At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Alexandre Pantoja Submits Kai Kara-France
Kai Kara-France

Submitted At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Extends His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Drops Decision
Renato Moicano

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Beneil Dariush

Gets Back In The Win Column
Felipe Lima

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Payton Talbott

Bounces Back
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF