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There are very few things more volatile in the fantasy landscape than closers. MLB teams continue to adapt and use their bullpens differently to gain an edge. That has left very few elite fantasy closers with more teams opting to go match-ups over having one ninth-inning option.
It's not often an elite closer hits the free-agent market so it should have come as no surprise when the Astros opted to give out a five-year contract worth $95 million to one of the best relievers we've seen in recent times.
Where does this signing leave the players involved, how does it impact the Astros and what's next for the remaining free-agent relievers? Don't forget to keep up to date with all your preseason fantasy baseball needs by following RotoBaller on X.
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Not all regression is the same
It was a nice bounceback season for Josh Hader in 2023. After putting up a 5.22 ERA in 2022, everyone expected him to get back to something like his former self last year. Hader did, with a 2-3 W-L record, 1.28 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 85 Ks and 33 saves. It was the third straight year of recording 30 or more saves and at least 80 strikeouts.
However, a look at Hader's underlying numbers suggests he's been gradually declining over the last three years.
| Year | IP | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | FB% | HR/FB% | K% | K-BB% | Blown saves |
| 2021 | 58.2 | 1.23 | 2.35 | 2.09 | 46.3% | 6.8% | 45.5% | 34.8% | 1 |
| 2022 | 50.0 | 5.22 | 2.94 | 2.38 | 46.9% | 15.1% | 37.0% | 27.4% | 4 |
| 2023 | 56.1 | 1.28 | 3.52 | 3.15 | 47.3% | 5.8% | 36.8% | 23.8% | 5 |
The biggest takeaways from these numbers are; that Hader had similar seasons in 2022 and 2023 despite a 3.94 ERA difference, his 2022 season was one of the unluckiest any pitcher has ever had and although we've seen regression over the last three years, Hader is still elite. How elite? Just look at his Baseball Savant page and you will see how elite.
Given the strikeouts and walks, Hader will continue to have a notable difference between his ERA, xFIP, and SIERA. Even if there is more regression on that front, he will still be one of the best (if not the best) relievers in baseball. The same goes for the strikeouts. Only four relievers (with at least 50.0 IP) had a higher K% than Hader last year and only three relievers over the previous two years combined (with at least 100.0 IP).
It's perfectly acceptable to believe Hader will regress in 2024. There's nothing to suggest he'll fall off a cliff and 2022 appears to be a massive outlier. Unlike some pitchers who outperformed their underlying numbers, Hader should still be an elite reliever in 2024.
Hader's role with the Astros
Given the investment the Astros have made with Hader, the assumption is he will be the closer and Ryan Pressly's fantasy value has nosedived. The reports that the Astros tried to trade for Hader during the 2023 season further cement the notion that even though Pressly was excellent, the Astros wanted to strengthen the back end of their bullpen.
Following the signing, Astros manager Joe Espada didn't name who will be their closer, but things are pointing towards Hader. Pressly is in the final year of his contract and when the opportunity to sign an elite reliever presents itself, you take it. This will be Espada's first time in the big seat so there is some uncertainty as to how he'll manage the bullpen. As a rookie manager, it's unlikely that Espada will want to try and reinvent the wheel.
With Josh Hader on the way to the Astros bullpen, manager Joe Espada is not yet ready to name him the closer, while saying Ryan Pressly was kept in the loop.
"We made him aware and he’s excited about the fact we added Hader to the team.”https://t.co/OPVMxmqkkt
— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) January 21, 2024
Any "rightie/leftie" notions can be dispelled. Pressly had similar numbers against right-handed and left-handed hitters while Hader had better numbers against RHH (albeit in a small sample). Let's not forget about Bryan Abreu, who had a 1.75 ERA (72.0 IP) last year. The most likely usage will be Abreu pitching in the seventh inning, Pressly in the eighth inning, and Hader in the ninth inning.
There will be some fluidity with that order and certain matchups will see some alternative usage. Then you have to factor in days when one or more of the trio won't be available. But on paper, that seems the probable usage. If anything, it feels more likely that Pressly could be used in a more "firefighter" role, getting one or two outs in big situations. That would leave Abreu to set up for Hader to close out games.
Of course, this is all conjecture. Until we see it in action, we won't know for sure. But one certain thing is in leagues that only count saves, Pressly's fantasy value has likely plummeted. In saves and holds leagues, Pressly still holds the same value. And in deeper leagues, stashing Pressly makes sense as he is the best handcuff option for Hader.
Hader remains one of the best reliever options and remains firmly in the conversation for being the number one reliever in drafts. He could set a career-high in saves (37 saves in 2019) given he's on a team that is likely going to win 90 games again. There's an even stronger case for Hader to be the first reliever taken in drafts now he's got a new home for 2024.
Remaining closer options
How does this leave the remaining free-agent closer market? With Aroldis Chapman signing for the Pirates, there are only four remaining relievers with a market value of over $6 million a year (according to Spotrac). Liam Hendriks is set to miss the 2024 season as he recovers from Tommy John Surgery. Hector Neris only has five saves over the last two years along with a 3.89 xFIP. Keynan Middleton has a 4.31 ERA since 2020. And Wandy Peralta has 13 career saves.
Liam Hendriks underwent Tommy John surgery today, the White Sox announced
He is expected to be out until 2025. pic.twitter.com/ZEfu2yzijJ
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) August 2, 2023
That does mean there is less chance that any closer you've already drafted will be replaced by a free agent signing, as Pressly's fantasy managers have suffered. Of course, trades are still possible and some teams expecting to compete for the postseason don't have a clear option for saves (*cough* Texas Rangers *cough*). But with Hader off the board, I'd be more confident in drafting a closer without them being usurped before Opening Day.
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