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Rishi Patel breaks down rookie running back Javonte Williams' skillset and situation with the Denver Broncos to determine his fantasy football outlook for 2021 and beyond.
Though the Denver Broncos did lose RB Philip Lindsay this offseason to the Houston Texans, it didn’t take long for them to replace him as they scooped up 21-year-old RB Javonte Williams out of North Carolina in the second round of this past draft.
For a playoff-hopeful team, the addition of Williams surely does help this offense, but the rookie won’t get the backfield to himself as he must compete with Melvin Gordon for touches. Will he thrive in his first season or come up short for fantasy managers?
Let’s break down Williams’ college career and look at his fantasy situation for 2021.
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College Production
Javonte Williams played three seasons for North Carolina from 2018-2020 and improved his rushing and receiving yards each season. The former Tar Heel had a slow start to his college career as he posted 43 rushes for 224 yards and five scores along with eight receptions for 58 yards in 10 games during his freshman year.
From there, things improved quite a bit during his sophomore year where Williams essentially broke out, posting 933 rushing yards and five scores on 166 carries along with 17 receptions for 176 yards and a receiving touchdown.
Williams’ best campaign was his junior year in 2020 where he posted a stellar 1,140 rush yards and 19 touchdowns on 157 carries. He also added 25 receptions for 305 yards and three receiving touchdowns. The former North Carolina player raised his draft stock during his final season in Chapel Hill while finishing with an average of 6.3 yards per rush and 10.8 yards per reception.
Williams has a good build (5-10, 212) and per Bleacher Report, he’s a power back who is able to charge full steam ahead without much resistance. He also has good coordination and footwork and can prevent defenders from tackling him. Overall, he is capable of being a workhorse back in the NFL and with only 416 total touches in three college campaigns, Williams’ legs remain fresh to contribute at the NFL level. The North Carolina product has drawn comparisons to Raiders back Josh Jacobs.
2021 Fantasy Outlook
Williams’ rookie year situation isn’t the worst, but it’s not ideal either. Essentially, he will have to fight with veteran Melvin Gordon for touches. Both backs are expected to split the carries with neither having an edge over the other, at least heading into the season that is.
Gordon paced the team in rushing last season, amassing 215 carries for 986 yards and nine rush touchdowns along with 32 receptions for 158 yards and a score on 44 targets. Now, Williams will come in and try to cut into that production.
Due to the Broncos’ situation being a committee approach, both Williams and Gordon have their fantasy values take a hit because it’s hard to tell who may end up with more touches and thus production. To further complicate things, a recent report stated head coach Vic Fangio may want an RB rotation featuring three backs.
That third back would be Mike Boone, who signed with Denver this past offseason after spending his first three years with the Vikings. Boone has a total of 379 rush yards and 28 receiving yards in three NFL seasons so he’s likely not a threat to either Gordon or Williams in terms of fantasy.
Nevertheless, both Williams and Gordon should only be considered in the RB3/flex tier heading into 2021 drafts. Neither is trustworthy enough, at the beginning of the season at least, to be a capable RB1/workhorse back for your fantasy team given the expected timeshare between the two. As the season progresses, their roles may fluctuate depending on injury, the “hot hand” approach, or weekly production. As a result, Williams’ fantasy value may increase or even decrease at some point during the 2021 campaign.
