RADIO
Jackson Merrill is a outfield fantasy baseball draft sleeper prospect for 2024. Target Merrill as a potentially undervalued OF in fantasy drafts.
ANALYSIS: Merrill was selected 27th overall in 2021 on an under-slot deal but was a successful scouting find by the Padres. Since being drafted, Merill has done nothing but hit and has shown progress with his hit tool every season despite being young for the level.
From a pure contact standpoint, you would be hard-pressed to find a better contact hitter who also has a well-rounded skillset. After posting a 90 percent zone-contact rate in 2022 to pair with an 85 percent overall contact, Merrill followed it up with an 88 percent zone and 83 percent overall contact rate between High-A and Double-A, despite being a young 20-year-old. Merrill chased more in 2023(30 percent vs 26.5 in 2022), but it did not lead to more strikeouts due to the amount of contact he makes.
Given the frame plus bat speed, Merrill gets to solid exit velocity, especially as he has filled out his frame. Posting an average exit velocity and 90th percentile exit velocity firmly above average, Merrill has failed to turn it into home runs due to high ground ball rates. He managed 15 home runs in 2023, and he saw the ground ball rate trend downward from 59 percent to 40 percent. A substantial change in launch angle was a key part of Merrill getting to more power, but there is still more in the tank.
If you like a high-floor caliber player who is a safe bet to be a solid major league bat, Merrill is a solid bet. While already having a solid frame, there is room for more, and Merrill could add more power to the profile. While the speed is average or slightly above, Merrill has shown consistent success on the base paths, swiping 15 bases this year in 19 tries. The potential is there for Merrill to provide seasons where he hits .300 with 25 home runs and 10 stolen bases.
It might be crazy to think that Merrill breaks camp with the Padres as a 20-year-old who has not played above Double-A. But the way the Padres talk about Merrill and have utilized him this spring makes it seem like it is a real possibility. Coming up a shortstop, Merrill has spent the majority of his time in the outfield this spring and I am banking on him being in the Opening Day Lineup.
Jackson Merrill (MLB's No. 12 prospect) puts together his second multihit game of the spring for the @Padres. pic.twitter.com/efKe09p529
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) March 3, 2024
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