Too Good To Be True? Buying/Selling Hot Pitching Starts

Eric Samulski looks at hitters who started off the 2020 MLB season on fire and analyzes whether you should be buying or selling these hot starts in fantasy baseball.

Last week, we dove into the hitters who were off to hot starts and tried to decide what was real and what wasn't as sustainable. Now we'll turn our attention to the arms. After two full weeks of baseball, we're over 20% done with the season, more FAAB dollars are being spent than ever before, and everybody feels like their team is hanging on for dear life. Which is why it's more important than ever to take stock of the hot starts and see which guys are for real and which guys are fakes. A legitimate hot start could lead to two to three weeks of elite-level production and a championship, but, similarly, one or two bad starts from a pitcher who was pitching over his head early on can tank your ratios.

Below, I took a look at some of this year's most surprising arms to decide who is real or phony and give some recommendations on how I would handle each player if he was on my team. The key here is the word "surprising." I know Dylan Bundy is off to an amazing start with the Angels and Max Fried looks like an ace, but I'm trying to identify arms who weren't really on radars at the beginning of the season or were at least not widely owned.

While some of the hitters I had less faith in last week are still producing (Kyle Lewis), remember that something being unsustainable doesn't mean it will collapse immediately; it just means I think it will eventually fall apart. A recommendation to sell doesn't mean do it immediately for whatever you can get. Treat it as a warning sign that you should try to find a good deal for that player and closely monitor his production for signs that the bottom is starting to fall out. All stats and metrics are up to date as of the morning of August 12th. 

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Zach Plesac, Cleveland Indians

3 games started, 1-1, 1.29 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, 10.29 K/9

Every Indians pitcher is off to a hot start, and Aaron Civale was another candidate for this piece, but he was touted by a few analysts before the season and was drafted in most leagues, so Plesac might be the more "surprising" of the arms. Despite a strong rookie season last year that saw him register a 3.81 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 115.2 innings, many were skeptical because of his 6.85 K/9, 5.06 xFIP and the Indians not guaranteeing him a rotation spot. Yet, here we are. The 25-year-old has been succeeding by hiding his 93 mph fastball up in the zone and utilizing it less than last year in favor of an 8% increase in his slider and a slight increase in his curve.

While it's not common for pitchers to succeed with a fastball that has a .329 xBA, .601 xSLG, and 12th-percentile spin rate, the Indians have made it work in the past. Part of Plesac's success is that he has swing-and-miss pitches for both left-handed and right-handed batters. The slider, which he throws 94% of the time to RHH has a .083BA,.125 SLG, and a 42.6 Whiff%, and the change-up, which he throws 80% of the time to LHH, has a .077 BA, .077 SLG, and 33.3 Whiff%. He mixes in a solid curveball to all hitters in order to keep them from sitting on the fastball. As a result of the change in pitch mix, Plesac's K/9 has jumped to 10.29 and his SwStr% has gone from 9.5% to 13.5%.

VERDICT: Sell High

I know this might seem counter-intuitive after everything I listed above, but I swear there's a reason for it. First of all, I can't stress enough, this is not sell for the sake of selling. If owners in your league aren't giving you good value because he was just suspended by his team for being selfish and going out to a bar after a game, then don't deal him. However, if somebody looks at him and sees a potential fantasy stud, make the deal. Plesac's breaking pitches all have below-average spin and movement and have actually decreased their movement since last year. The change-up also may be doing well now, but the .077 BA and .077 SLG is paired with a .244 xBA and .446 xSLG so regression is coming. Lastly, the biggest change in his success is that his Chase% jumped from 24.1% to 31.5% and his Chase Contact% dropped from 61.8% to 42.6%.

So, essentially, the change in pitch mix has caused batters to chase more pitches out of the zone and they are making drastically less contact on those pitches. Considering his breaking pitches don't have "nasty" movement, I expect this to be more of an adjustment period and hitters will begin to chase less as they see what Plesac is doing and force him to come over the plate more. As a result, I think he'll be a useable fantasy arm, so not a guy you NEED to sell, but I think he'll settle as more of an SP4/5 on your roster than what he's showing right now.

Spencer Turnbull, Detroit Tigers

3 games started, 2-0, 2.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 9.00 K/9

Turnbull may not be a surprise to some since he was a late-round sleeper among many fantasy writers, but his strong start to the season seems to show that he's taken another step in his development. For starters, he's all but abandoned his curveball, going from throwing it 12% of the time to 4.5%. In its place, he's upped his change-up percentage to 8.3% and sinker to 23.7%, now his second most frequent offering. That's important because he seems to have tweaked both pitches, increasing the spin rate and vertical drop on both pitches. This has led to a drastic improvement in his contact metrics with his sinker, going from a .325 xBA, .505 xSLG, and .425 xwOBA to a .220 xBA, .323 xSLG, and .246 xwOBA. It's given him a strong second weapon against left-handed hitters, and it's clear that his approach has become fastballs up, sinkers low and away to lefties, and sliders low and away to righties.

VERDICT: HOLD

Turnbull's changes are real, and I think you can lock him in as a solid SP4 for your roster. Turnbull's approach is more mature and leading to less hard contact (down from 41.4% to 31.1%); however, I need to see one more change before I feel confident that he can take a leap and be a dynamic fantasy asset. His slider has become a solid out pitch with a 44.4 Put Away% and 26.9 SwStr%, which is third-best in the league, but he's not throwing it any more than he did last year. Right now, it's his only swing-and-miss pitch and I'd love to see him utilize it more since his O-Swing% is down rather drastically from last year as is his Soft%. If he can start to make better use out of the slider to get hitters to chase out of the zone or make weak contact, then I like his chances to be a worthwhile fantasy arm for the foreseeable future.

Randy Dobnak, Minnesota Twins

4 games started, 3-1, 0.90 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 4.95 K/9

One look at Randy Dobnak's Statcast page will likely have you run screaming for the hills.

That does not inspire confidence, but we can't look at the color alone. There are some interesting things happening under the hood. For one, Dobak has forgotten his fastball, going from throwing it 22.7% of the time last year to 5% this year. In its place, he's raised his changeup usage from 12.9% to 16.1% and his slider (even though Statcast calls it a curve) from 27.9% to 31.5%. The slider is interesting here because he has been vocal about working on it during the quarantine with pitching coach Wes Johnson, and he's been able to up the spin rate on it. It was his highest Whiff% pitch last year and remains so this year as well, also register as his best pitch by pVAL. It's currently given up a .077 BA, .115 SLG, and only 85.5 mph exit velocity. Only, he hasn't needed to use it.

He's throwing his sinker early, and teams are just hitting io into the ground, which is why is GB% is currently 66.7%. He threw 79 pitches in five innings of four-hit ball against Milwaukee his last time out and 71 pitches of three-hit ball in the start before against Pittsburgh. However, all three strikeouts against Milwaukee were on the slider, as were all four against the Indians (and the one against the Pirates). What this tells me is that Dobnak can go to the slider for strikeouts when he has to; he just hasn't had to.

VERDICT: BUYING IN 

The presence of the slider as a potential put-away pitch gives Dobnak an added layer of intrigue; however, he's never going to be a high K-rate arm. Also, the Twins under Rocco Baldelli have shown that they are willing to limit a pitcher to facing an offense only twice, so don't expect them to push Dobak deep into games too often. Yet, he's likely going to be a solid ratio arm on a team that will give him a fair amount of wins, which means he could be valuable for you if you're getting your strikeouts from somewhere else.

Framber Valdez, Houston Astros

2 games started, 0-2, 2.04 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 9.68 K/9

Elliott Bass did a great breakdown of Framber this week, so I'm not going to spend too much time on him here.

VERDICT: SELL HIGH /HOLD

I agree with much of what Elliott says in his article; however, even if I'm not in on Framber, I think he can be useful given that the offense behind him could lead to some much-coveted wins. I would certainly look to see if some owners in your league think he's legit, perhaps spinning him for any of the other names on this list, but I wouldn't abandon ship if you can't get a good offer. Just hold onto him if you have the room and stream him in good match-ups.

Chris Bassitt, Oakland Athletics

3 games started, 1-0, 1.08 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 8.10 K/9

Chris Bassitt wasn't supposed to be in the rotation, pushed aside by the hyped-up futures of A.J. Puk and Jesus Luzardo. Then, unfortunately as has become common in their young careers, both players suffered arm injuries and a spot was opened. Even with Luzardo now back, Bassitt is pitching well enough that the A's may have to think about keeping Puk in the bullpen when he's healthy enough to return. Bassitt has held health concerns of his own but has been a solid starter for the A's when healthy. Interestingly, Bassitt has gone back to something that resembles his 2018 pitch mix, when he finished with a 3.02 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and only 7.74 K/9.

What's more interesting is that the 9% increase in his cutter comes a year after the cutter was Bassitt's worst pitch, registering a .344 BA, .705 SLG, and 90.1 mph exit velocity. The x-stats were friendlier, but nothing signaled the .091 BA, .901 SLG, and 84.7 mph exit velocity. The pitch has a near-identical spin rate to last year, the same vertical movement, and only .5 inches more horizontal movement yet his PutAway% on the pitch has spiked from 16.7% to 50%. That's the definition of flukey. That's his highest Whiff% pitch in his regular arsenal, so when that comes back to normal, he's not going to feature a true out pitch. The sinker can get swings and misses, as can the change-up that he's started throwing more often, but Bassitt is not a strikeout arm. That further evidenced by the fact that he's getting hitters to swing outside of the zone more this year, his O-Swing% rising from 26.1% to 29.7% but they are making WAY more contact, with his O-Contact rising from 65.9% to 80%. That's a concerning amount of contact on pitches outside of the zone and shows that he's incredibly reliant on his defense since he can't put many batters away on his own.

VERDICT: STREAM AND RELEASE

Yes, that was a bad play on bass fishing and "catch and release." However, I won't apologize for it, and the message is true. Stream Bassitt for the good matchups and then release him. He has a good defense behind him, so being overly reliant on them isn't a bad thing, but regression is coming here. Batters are making a lot of contact off of him and the .244 BABIP against him is going to rise to the norm - he's .284 for his career. When it does, he's going to be a dangerous arm to throw against good offenses since he can't rack up strikeouts. He'll be great for your ratios, and the possible win, against bad and mediocre offenses, but you need to be really selective in when you deploy him, and I don't think you'll kick yourself if you cut him loose for an attractive streamer and aren't able to get him back.

Trevor Gott, San Francisco Giants

5 games, 4 Saves, 1.80 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 3.60 K/9

All off-season we were hearing about the deceptive delivery of Tyler Rogers and how the submariner was a sneaky bet for saves in the Giants bullpen. Then he got demolished on opening day, Gott took his opportunity and hasn't looked back. But here's the thing: it's not a really attractive profile. He throws only two pitches: a fastball 64.4% of the time and a curve 35.6% and both of them are over-performing.

Look at the average exit velocities against his two pitches. That's not what you want to see if you've got Gott. His curve and fastball both have bottom-of-the-league levels of spin and the xBAs for both pitches are substantially higher than the actual average against. He's also not getting many whiffs with either with low Whiff% and a 4.1% SwStr%. 4.1 PERCENT! Which explains that crazy low 3.6 K/9.

VERDICT: SELL HIGH 

This is going to end so poorly. Dangle the four saves that he's gotten so far and let some desperate owner take the bait. If you don't own Gott, it's time to roster Tony Watson or even Shaun Anderson and wait for the closer change to happen.

For these next two, I'm going to cheat a little bit because they're not exactly starting the season "hot" from a statistical standpoint, but they are different pitchers then they have been in the past, which has put them back on the radar. 

Yusei Kikuchi, Seattle Mariners

3 games started, 0-1, 5.28 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 9.39 K/9

Jamie Steed wrote Kikuchi up as a waiver wire add, so I wanted to add him here to plug Jamie's work and the logic. Remember that Kikuchi was a star in Japan and spent last year adjusting to a new league and living in a new country. That's not an easy transition. He looks like a new pitcher this year, and I'm in on his resurgence.

VERDICT: BUY 

Tyler Chatwood, Chicago Cubs

3 games started, 2-1, 5.40 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 13.80 K/9

There are not many pitchers who make this drastic of a pitch mix change.

Chatwood basically overhauled his entire approach last year when he moved to the bullpen and continued that this year, officially abandoning his four-seamer to become a sinker-cutter pitcher and overhauling his curveball to the extent that it was among the league leaders in spin rate. While the four-seamer wasn't a bad pitch for him, the new approach has drastically cut down on BB%, going from 19.6% in 2018 (his last year as a full-time starter) to 6.2%.

The cutter is the big difference since he cut back on it last year when he was in the bullpen, but has added it as a third pitch now that he's a starter again. The pitch has a .210 xBA, .392 xSLG, 47.2 Whiff% and 40.9 PutAway%. Part of the reason for those numbers is the 4.7 inches of horizontal break he's getting on the pitch, which is bright red on Statcast and one of the top rates of movement in the league. It's become a real weapon for Chatwood, especially since he has historically struggled against left-handed hitting and the cutter in on the hands can be an effective weapon to neutralize power from that side. His sinker is getting hit hard, which makes me want him to lessen his reliance on it and incorporate his solid curve a bit more, but don't be turned off by one bad start.

VERDICT: HOLD / ADD TO YOUR BENCH

Listen the 13.8 K/9 isn't sustainable, but Chatwood is doing something different this year and his bad start against an underrated Royals lineup shouldn't turn you off completely. I wouldn't go ahead and cement him into your rotation, but I want to see another start before I abandon ship. If he's available on your waiver wire and you can add him and throw him on the bench, I'd do it. I think there is something interesting happening here.

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