Are You For Real? Surprising SP Starts from Week 3

August 12, 2020

Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SPs could emerge as waiver wire targets and sleepers, or simply mirages.

Welcome back to "Are You For Real?" Each week, we look at lower-owned starting pitchers who have performed unexpectedly well in their last outing(s).

This week we're looking at a trio of pitchers who put up surprising strikeout numbers over the weekend. Nathan Eovaldi dominated the baby Blue Jays, while Framber Valdez put up nine strikeouts in Oakland, and Kevin Gausman shut down the powerful LA Dodgers.

Ownership is based on Yahoo leagues and is accurate as of 08/10/2020. The goal of this article is to look at pitchers who are either still widely available or were hot waiver wire pickups after good starts, and to analyze whether they're a flash-in-the-pan or if there's any staying power.

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Framber Valdez, Houston Astros

25% Owned

2019 Stats: 70.2 IP, 5.86 ERA, 4.98 FIP, 7.3% K-BB%

08/08 @ OAK: 7 IP, 7 H, 2 R (1 ER), 1 BB, 9 K

Valdez has been straight dealing for Houston as of late, allowing just one earned run and striking out 17 over his last 13.1 innings pitched. The final numbers were ugly for Valdez last season, but the sinkerballer lefty looks to have something up his sleeve, and could be a sneaky add on the waiver wire, as he’s out there in over 80% of Yahoo leagues. Valdez gets it done with four pitches, a two-seamer, four-seamer, curveball, and changeup. As previously mentioned, he’s a sinkerballer, primarily pitching off his two-seamer, which has been his trademark as a prospect. Valdez consistently maintained a groundball rate better than 55% in the minors, and has a career 63.2% groundball rate at the major league level. Groundballs are nice, but the newly found strikeout numbers are what has fantasy owners interested in the Astros’ southpaw.

The curveball has been Valdez’s primary source of whiffs this season, as the pitch has a 20.8% SwStr rate and batters are hitting just .080 against it. Valdez has shown signs of improvement with the pitch, gaining over an inch of drop and break this season compared to 2019. The curveball has always garnered the best results for Valdez, and it looks like he’s taking it to another level through his first three appearances.
Valdez has made one more big change with his pitch mix, and that’s the abandonment of his four-seam fastball. Pitch F/x has registered just three four-seamers all season, and he didn’t throw a single four-seam fastball in his start against Oakland. That’s probably for the best, as batters have crushed Valdez’s fastball for a .345 AVG and .172 ISO over his major league career. To fill in the gaps he’s increased his sinker usage to 60.1% and his changeup usage to 9.7%, both career-highs. While ditching the four-seamer should prove fruitful for Valdez, owners should be wary of him leaning too heavily on his sinker.

As a left-handed sinkerballer pitching for Houston, it would be easy to compare Valdez to Dallas Keuchel, but unlike Keuchel, Valdez seems incapable of inducing soft contact, and it brews skepticism in this writer. Batters have hit Valdez’s fastball well throughout his career, no doubt, but his sinker hasn’t fared too much better, with a .292 AVG and .120 ISO all time. Valdez’s sinker has been creamed this year, with a 94 MPH average exit velocity against. He also has a 59.2% hard hit rate against, which is the second-highest among pitchers with at least 30 batted ball events. The groundballs are nice, but a fast groundball can sneak through the infield for a hit quite easily. Valdez is also allowed an increased line drive rate at 24.5%, and his 5.8-degree average launch angle is by far the highest of his career.

Valdez has looked good in his last two outings, but he’s fooled us in the past with hot stretches.  His meager 9.7% SwStr rate makes me question the sustainability of his 26.8% strikeout rate. His improved 60.1% zone rate has helped him cut walks from 13.4% last year to 4.2% this year. Still, it’s hard to trust what Valdez has done considering how hard he’s getting hit. Even though Valdez has a .313 BABIP, his .272 xBA is nearly 40 points higher than his actual .235 AVG against. He’s usable in a good matchup, but the foundation is shaky with Valdez.

Verdict: Valdez has ditched his troublesome four-seamer and seems to have found new success, but his 59.2% hard hit rate against and .272 xBA suggest lady luck has been on his side thus far. He could be streamed in his next outing at home against Seattle, but following that he’s in Coors Field and away against San Diego, two tough matchups.

Kevin Gausman, San Francisco Giants

8% Owned

2019 Stats: 102.1 IP, 5.72 ERA, 3.98 FIP, 18.2% K-BB%

08/09 @ LAD: 6.1 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K

Gausman has quietly been pitching well for San Francisco, piling up 21 strikeouts in 16 innings over his last three starts. Gausman has long toyed with fantasy owners, often seeming on the brink of a breakthrough, only to come crumbling down. It’s perhaps why he’s available in more than 90% of leagues despite delivering the strikeout numbers we thirst for in fantasy. Owners would much rather take a chance on a relative unknown like Zach Plesac or Christian Javier than return to someone who has burned them before, like Gausman. Even so, it’s undeniable that Gausman possesses some great talent in his arm, and like his ex-teammate Dylan Bundy, a ticket out of Baltimore could be just the thing Gausman needs to turn the corner. Unlike Bundy, Gausman has pitched outside of Baltimore for a year and a half with Atlanta and Cincinnati, but struggled with injures for the Braves and was a reliever for the Reds. This turn with the Giants may be his first chance as a starter while truly healthy and liberated from Baltimore, and ironically his last chance to make it as a starter in the big leagues.

Gausman works with a four-pitch repertoire, a four-seamer, a slider, a changeup, and a splitter. The splitter has always been Gausman’s defining pitch. He lives and dies with his splitter, and it’s been an elite offering throughout Gausman’s career, which is why it’s surprising to see Gausman succeed even though the pitch has underperformed relative to past seasons in 2020. Below are a few graphs charting the splitter’s performance in key metrics on a year-by-year basis.

Batters are hitting .240 against Gausman's splitter, the highest mark of his career.

Gausman is getting less drop on his splitter this season compared to previous years.

The whiff rate on Gausman's splitter is below 20% for the first time in his career.

Obviously, it’s still a small sample size, but the metrics on Gausman's splitter are trending downward. They are still respectable, but below where he usually hovers around. The pitch has lost about two inches of drop, and whiffs are down about four percent thus far. Whenever we’ve seen success from Gausman in the past, he’s been doing it with his splitter, but this time around Gausman is getting it done with other pieces of his arsenal.

Anyone who watched Gausman’s most recent start noticed one thing, and that was the fire coming out of his right arm right from the beginning. Gausman averaged 97.1 MPH with his heater in this one, and routine popped 98 and even hit 99 on the gun. In fact, even his last pitch of the game was a 99 MPH fastball that Cody Bellinger turned around for a single. That single caused Gabe Kapler to pull Gausman even though Gausman had only thrown 80 pitches and was still popping 99 MPH, and the Giants bullpen immediately blew the game, but as they say, it's easy to second-guess an obviously incorrect decision after it blows up in the manager's face, but I digress. This was the hardest Gausman has ever thrown as a starter, and the first time he’s averaged more than 96 MPH in a start since 2017. Not only did Gausman throw harder, but he attacked the upper portion of the zone more than ever. Below is a fastball heatmap from this start (top) compared to a heatmap prior to 2020 (bottom).

Gausman racked up the whiffs with his heater too, inducing nine swinging strikes with his fastball, out of eleven swinging strikes total. The combination of high velocity and that deadly splitter are what made Gausman such an exciting prospect and breakout candidate in years past, and if he can maintain this velocity and tweak his splitter just a bit back to previous years, he could be in line for a nice little pandemic year. The fact that he’s pitching half his games in San Francisco, while homers were such a problem for him in other ballparks, is just gravy.

Verdict: Increased velocity could give Gausman just what he needs to sustain success as a starter. If he can get a little more drop on his splitter Gausman will have a deadly strikeout combination. He’s burned this writer, and likely many readers before, but Gausman’s doing interesting things and deserves a pick up in deeper leagues, and to be on the watch list in shallow ones. His next two starts are at home against the A’s and Angels, two teams with strong lineups on paper, but haven’t quite performed at a high level yet. The friendly confines of Oracle Park certainly make it easier to roll with Gausman in those outings.

Nathan Eovaldi, Boston Red Sox

59% Owned

2019 Stats: 67.2 IP, 5.99 ERA, 5.90 FIP, 11.6% K-BB %

08/09 vs. TOR: 6 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 10 K

Eovaldi has a lot in common with Kevin Gausman. Both were highly-touted, hard-throwing right-handers, both sport an above-average splitter, and both have dealt with their share of ups-and-downs and injuries throughout their career. In fact, their career stat lines are eerily similar. Eovaldi has 47 wins and a 4.29 ERA over 939.2 innings during his career, while Gausman has 47 wins and a 4.29 ERA over 945.2 innings for his career. Both also had disastrous seasons in 2019, putting up career worst ERAs north of 5.50. Maybe it’s east coast (or Boston) bias, maybe it’s his memorable playoff performances, or maybe it was his clearly defined role coming into the season (okay, probably this one), but it’s a wonder why Eovaldi is so much more highly owned than Gausman.

Unlike Gausman, Eovaldi does sport a more rounded repertoire, throwing four pitches (fastball, cutter, splitter, and curveball) regularly, with the occasional show-me slider tossed in the mix. It was two years ago when Eovaldi first came to Boston that his slider took a backseat to a harder cut-fastball, which was a key piece of Eovaldi’s 2018 success. The cutter has hardly been the reason for Eovaldi’s success this year, as batters have walloped the pitch for a .379 AVG and .690 SLG. Instead, Eovaldi is having newfound luck with his curveball, a pitch that has been a source of pain for him in the past.

Batters are struggling against Eovaldi’s curve to the tune of a .188 AVG and .062 ISO against, which is a stark improvement compared to previous seasons, as opposing hitters knocked Eovaldi’s curveball around for a .276 AVG and .204 ISO prior to 2020. Eovaldi has gained two inches of drop with his curveball this season, and has induced a monster 26% SwStr rate with a 44.4% chase rate on the pitch this season. He racked up eight whiffs on the curve in this start against Toronto, along with 19 swinging strikes total. Eovaldi is still firing his fastball upwards if 97 MPH on average, so an improved curveball would add a new dimension to his game that gives Eovaldi previously untapped strikeout potential.

The curveball improvements are exciting, but it was just two years ago that Eovaldi’s cutter was adding a new dimension to his game and activating previously untapped strikeout potential. There’s still reason to be interested, but like with Kevin Gausman, Eovaldi is a house of cards that could come crumbling down at a moment’s notice.

Verdict: Increased curveball drop is letting Eovaldi pile up punchouts like never before, and in a pitching-starved landscape he’s definitely worth owning. He’s someone that belongs on a short leash, as things can go sideways in a hurry for Eovaldi. His next two starts are at the Yankees and home to Philadelphia, so if you can flip him after this 10 K start you should consider it. Otherwise he’s on the bench until August 25 at the Blue Jays.

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