X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Are You For Real? Surprising SP Starts from Week 3

Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SPs could emerge as waiver wire targets and sleepers, or simply mirages.

Welcome back to "Are You For Real?" Each week, we look at lower-owned starting pitchers who have performed unexpectedly well in their last outing(s).

This week we're looking at a trio of pitchers who put up surprising strikeout numbers over the weekend. Nathan Eovaldi dominated the baby Blue Jays, while Framber Valdez put up nine strikeouts in Oakland, and Kevin Gausman shut down the powerful LA Dodgers.

Ownership is based on Yahoo leagues and is accurate as of 08/10/2020. The goal of this article is to look at pitchers who are either still widely available or were hot waiver wire pickups after good starts, and to analyze whether they're a flash-in-the-pan or if there's any staying power.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Framber Valdez, Houston Astros

25% Owned

2019 Stats: 70.2 IP, 5.86 ERA, 4.98 FIP, 7.3% K-BB%

08/08 @ OAK: 7 IP, 7 H, 2 R (1 ER), 1 BB, 9 K

Valdez has been straight dealing for Houston as of late, allowing just one earned run and striking out 17 over his last 13.1 innings pitched. The final numbers were ugly for Valdez last season, but the sinkerballer lefty looks to have something up his sleeve, and could be a sneaky add on the waiver wire, as he’s out there in over 80% of Yahoo leagues. Valdez gets it done with four pitches, a two-seamer, four-seamer, curveball, and changeup. As previously mentioned, he’s a sinkerballer, primarily pitching off his two-seamer, which has been his trademark as a prospect. Valdez consistently maintained a groundball rate better than 55% in the minors, and has a career 63.2% groundball rate at the major league level. Groundballs are nice, but the newly found strikeout numbers are what has fantasy owners interested in the Astros’ southpaw.

The curveball has been Valdez’s primary source of whiffs this season, as the pitch has a 20.8% SwStr rate and batters are hitting just .080 against it. Valdez has shown signs of improvement with the pitch, gaining over an inch of drop and break this season compared to 2019. The curveball has always garnered the best results for Valdez, and it looks like he’s taking it to another level through his first three appearances.
Valdez has made one more big change with his pitch mix, and that’s the abandonment of his four-seam fastball. Pitch F/x has registered just three four-seamers all season, and he didn’t throw a single four-seam fastball in his start against Oakland. That’s probably for the best, as batters have crushed Valdez’s fastball for a .345 AVG and .172 ISO over his major league career. To fill in the gaps he’s increased his sinker usage to 60.1% and his changeup usage to 9.7%, both career-highs. While ditching the four-seamer should prove fruitful for Valdez, owners should be wary of him leaning too heavily on his sinker.

As a left-handed sinkerballer pitching for Houston, it would be easy to compare Valdez to Dallas Keuchel, but unlike Keuchel, Valdez seems incapable of inducing soft contact, and it brews skepticism in this writer. Batters have hit Valdez’s fastball well throughout his career, no doubt, but his sinker hasn’t fared too much better, with a .292 AVG and .120 ISO all time. Valdez’s sinker has been creamed this year, with a 94 MPH average exit velocity against. He also has a 59.2% hard hit rate against, which is the second-highest among pitchers with at least 30 batted ball events. The groundballs are nice, but a fast groundball can sneak through the infield for a hit quite easily. Valdez is also allowed an increased line drive rate at 24.5%, and his 5.8-degree average launch angle is by far the highest of his career.

Valdez has looked good in his last two outings, but he’s fooled us in the past with hot stretches.  His meager 9.7% SwStr rate makes me question the sustainability of his 26.8% strikeout rate. His improved 60.1% zone rate has helped him cut walks from 13.4% last year to 4.2% this year. Still, it’s hard to trust what Valdez has done considering how hard he’s getting hit. Even though Valdez has a .313 BABIP, his .272 xBA is nearly 40 points higher than his actual .235 AVG against. He’s usable in a good matchup, but the foundation is shaky with Valdez.

Verdict: Valdez has ditched his troublesome four-seamer and seems to have found new success, but his 59.2% hard hit rate against and .272 xBA suggest lady luck has been on his side thus far. He could be streamed in his next outing at home against Seattle, but following that he’s in Coors Field and away against San Diego, two tough matchups.

 

Kevin Gausman, San Francisco Giants

8% Owned

2019 Stats: 102.1 IP, 5.72 ERA, 3.98 FIP, 18.2% K-BB%

08/09 @ LAD: 6.1 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K

Gausman has quietly been pitching well for San Francisco, piling up 21 strikeouts in 16 innings over his last three starts. Gausman has long toyed with fantasy owners, often seeming on the brink of a breakthrough, only to come crumbling down. It’s perhaps why he’s available in more than 90% of leagues despite delivering the strikeout numbers we thirst for in fantasy. Owners would much rather take a chance on a relative unknown like Zach Plesac or Christian Javier than return to someone who has burned them before, like Gausman. Even so, it’s undeniable that Gausman possesses some great talent in his arm, and like his ex-teammate Dylan Bundy, a ticket out of Baltimore could be just the thing Gausman needs to turn the corner. Unlike Bundy, Gausman has pitched outside of Baltimore for a year and a half with Atlanta and Cincinnati, but struggled with injures for the Braves and was a reliever for the Reds. This turn with the Giants may be his first chance as a starter while truly healthy and liberated from Baltimore, and ironically his last chance to make it as a starter in the big leagues.

Gausman works with a four-pitch repertoire, a four-seamer, a slider, a changeup, and a splitter. The splitter has always been Gausman’s defining pitch. He lives and dies with his splitter, and it’s been an elite offering throughout Gausman’s career, which is why it’s surprising to see Gausman succeed even though the pitch has underperformed relative to past seasons in 2020. Below are a few graphs charting the splitter’s performance in key metrics on a year-by-year basis.

Batters are hitting .240 against Gausman's splitter, the highest mark of his career.

Gausman is getting less drop on his splitter this season compared to previous years.

The whiff rate on Gausman's splitter is below 20% for the first time in his career.

Obviously, it’s still a small sample size, but the metrics on Gausman's splitter are trending downward. They are still respectable, but below where he usually hovers around. The pitch has lost about two inches of drop, and whiffs are down about four percent thus far. Whenever we’ve seen success from Gausman in the past, he’s been doing it with his splitter, but this time around Gausman is getting it done with other pieces of his arsenal.

Anyone who watched Gausman’s most recent start noticed one thing, and that was the fire coming out of his right arm right from the beginning. Gausman averaged 97.1 MPH with his heater in this one, and routine popped 98 and even hit 99 on the gun. In fact, even his last pitch of the game was a 99 MPH fastball that Cody Bellinger turned around for a single. That single caused Gabe Kapler to pull Gausman even though Gausman had only thrown 80 pitches and was still popping 99 MPH, and the Giants bullpen immediately blew the game, but as they say, it's easy to second-guess an obviously incorrect decision after it blows up in the manager's face, but I digress. This was the hardest Gausman has ever thrown as a starter, and the first time he’s averaged more than 96 MPH in a start since 2017. Not only did Gausman throw harder, but he attacked the upper portion of the zone more than ever. Below is a fastball heatmap from this start (top) compared to a heatmap prior to 2020 (bottom).

Gausman racked up the whiffs with his heater too, inducing nine swinging strikes with his fastball, out of eleven swinging strikes total. The combination of high velocity and that deadly splitter are what made Gausman such an exciting prospect and breakout candidate in years past, and if he can maintain this velocity and tweak his splitter just a bit back to previous years, he could be in line for a nice little pandemic year. The fact that he’s pitching half his games in San Francisco, while homers were such a problem for him in other ballparks, is just gravy.

Verdict: Increased velocity could give Gausman just what he needs to sustain success as a starter. If he can get a little more drop on his splitter Gausman will have a deadly strikeout combination. He’s burned this writer, and likely many readers before, but Gausman’s doing interesting things and deserves a pick up in deeper leagues, and to be on the watch list in shallow ones. His next two starts are at home against the A’s and Angels, two teams with strong lineups on paper, but haven’t quite performed at a high level yet. The friendly confines of Oracle Park certainly make it easier to roll with Gausman in those outings.

 

Nathan Eovaldi, Boston Red Sox

59% Owned

2019 Stats: 67.2 IP, 5.99 ERA, 5.90 FIP, 11.6% K-BB %

08/09 vs. TOR: 6 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 10 K

Eovaldi has a lot in common with Kevin Gausman. Both were highly-touted, hard-throwing right-handers, both sport an above-average splitter, and both have dealt with their share of ups-and-downs and injuries throughout their career. In fact, their career stat lines are eerily similar. Eovaldi has 47 wins and a 4.29 ERA over 939.2 innings during his career, while Gausman has 47 wins and a 4.29 ERA over 945.2 innings for his career. Both also had disastrous seasons in 2019, putting up career worst ERAs north of 5.50. Maybe it’s east coast (or Boston) bias, maybe it’s his memorable playoff performances, or maybe it was his clearly defined role coming into the season (okay, probably this one), but it’s a wonder why Eovaldi is so much more highly owned than Gausman.

Unlike Gausman, Eovaldi does sport a more rounded repertoire, throwing four pitches (fastball, cutter, splitter, and curveball) regularly, with the occasional show-me slider tossed in the mix. It was two years ago when Eovaldi first came to Boston that his slider took a backseat to a harder cut-fastball, which was a key piece of Eovaldi’s 2018 success. The cutter has hardly been the reason for Eovaldi’s success this year, as batters have walloped the pitch for a .379 AVG and .690 SLG. Instead, Eovaldi is having newfound luck with his curveball, a pitch that has been a source of pain for him in the past.

Batters are struggling against Eovaldi’s curve to the tune of a .188 AVG and .062 ISO against, which is a stark improvement compared to previous seasons, as opposing hitters knocked Eovaldi’s curveball around for a .276 AVG and .204 ISO prior to 2020. Eovaldi has gained two inches of drop with his curveball this season, and has induced a monster 26% SwStr rate with a 44.4% chase rate on the pitch this season. He racked up eight whiffs on the curve in this start against Toronto, along with 19 swinging strikes total. Eovaldi is still firing his fastball upwards if 97 MPH on average, so an improved curveball would add a new dimension to his game that gives Eovaldi previously untapped strikeout potential.

The curveball improvements are exciting, but it was just two years ago that Eovaldi’s cutter was adding a new dimension to his game and activating previously untapped strikeout potential. There’s still reason to be interested, but like with Kevin Gausman, Eovaldi is a house of cards that could come crumbling down at a moment’s notice.

Verdict: Increased curveball drop is letting Eovaldi pile up punchouts like never before, and in a pitching-starved landscape he’s definitely worth owning. He’s someone that belongs on a short leash, as things can go sideways in a hurry for Eovaldi. His next two starts are at the Yankees and home to Philadelphia, so if you can flip him after this 10 K start you should consider it. Otherwise he’s on the bench until August 25 at the Blue Jays.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More 2020 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Shemar Stewart

Not Practicing With College Team
Uchenna Nwosu

Seahawks Place Uchenna Nwosu on PUP List
Taylor Decker

Alim McNeill, Taylor Decker Placed on PUP List
Tyrion Davis-Price

Titans Waive Tyrion Davis-Price
Tre Harris

Chargers Relying on Tre Harris to Be Starting X Receiver
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Expected Back Friday
Micah Parsons

Will Become Highest-Paid Non-QB
MarShawn Lloyd

Vying for RB2 Role
Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith Finds End Zone in First Training Camp Practice
Tyler Shough

Pushing for Fully Guaranteed Rookie Deal
Ar'Darius Washington

Goes on PUP List
Lamar Jackson

to be Even Better in 2025?
Tre Harris

Agrees to Terms on Rookie Deal
Justin Herbert

Off to Good Start at Training Camp
Jameson Williams

Earning Rave Reviews from Lions Coaches
Christian Mahogany

Expected to Start for Lions
Zach Allen

an Extension Candidate in Denver?
Zaire Franklin

May Miss Start of Training Camp
Portland Trail Blazers

Damian Lillard Returning to Portland
Mason Taylor

to Play "Crucial" Role in Jets' Offense
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
T.J. Watt

Once Again Becomes Highest-Paid Non-QB
RJ Harvey

Reaches Agreement on Four-Year Rookie Contract
Rashee Rice

Chiefs Believe Rashee Rice Will Receive Two- to Four-Game Suspension
Brooks Barnhizer

Grabs 19 Points, Nine Boards in Summer League Win
Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
Isaiah Collier

Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
Caleb Houstan

Joins Hawks
AJ Johnson

Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
Washington Wizards

Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Trey Alexander

Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

Has Historic Summer League Outing
Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
Tyrese Proctor

Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
LeBron James

Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
Josh Hart

Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
Jake Burger

Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
Sal Frelick

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
Chris Sale

Plays Catch
Los Angeles Clippers

Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
GG Jackson II

Records 13 Points in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Johni Broome

Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
DaRon Holmes II

Records Double-Double in Summer League Loss to Raptors
Kyle Schwarber

Named All-Star Game MVP
Harris English

Takes Stellar 2025 Performance to The Open Championship
Aldrich Potgieter

Seeks Better Result in Northern Ireland
Cameron Young

Likely to Hang Around at The Open Championship
Cameron Smith

Just Trying to Make the Cut at Royal Portrush
Jordan Spieth

Is Jordan Spieth Still a Natural for Links Style Golf?
Patrick Reed

a Viable Option at The Open Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound from Last Experience at Royal Portrush
Xander Schauffele

Looks to Defend His Claret Jug at Royal Portrush
Tony Finau

Trying to Turn Tide at Royal Portrush
Daniel Brown

Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
Rory McIlroy

Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
Daniel Berger

Trending Poorly as The Open Championship Looms
Clayton Kershaw

Retires Both Batters In ASG Appearance
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Hit In Pinky In All-Star Game, X-Rays Negative
MLB

NL All-Stars Win On Tie-Breaker Home Run Swing-Off
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Oneil Cruz

Ties Home Run Derby Distance Record
Cal Raleigh

Wins 2025 Home Run Derby
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Michael Lorenzen

Royals Put Michael Lorenzen on Injured List With Oblique Strain
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Junior Tafa

Unsuccessful in his Light-Heavyweight Debut
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Tosses Gem Against Giants
Shota Imanaga

Shuts Down Yankees on Sunday
Nathan Eovaldi

Dominant Again in Seventh Win
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Chicago White Sox

Billy Carlson Goes 10th Overall to White Sox
Cincinnati Reds

Steele Hall Selected Ninth by Cincinnati
Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays Select JoJo Parker with Eighth Overall Pick
Miami Marlins

Marlins Select Aiva Arquette With Seventh Overall Pick
Pittsburgh Pirates

Pirates Select Seth Hernandez with Sixth Overall Pick
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
Erik Karlsson

Open to Move Away From Pittsburgh
Zach Hyman

Hopes to be Ready for Start of Next Season
SJ

Jeff Skinner Joins Sharks on One-Year Contract
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF