Free NFL Betting Picks - Week 11 Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (11/21/21)

November 19, 2021

Steve Janik's top NFL betting picks and best bets for Week 11 NFL games on 11/21/21. His free picks against the spread, moneyline bets and NFL player prop.

A winner, a loser, and a heartbreak, all in one week. Our TB/Was under hit with relative ease in a surprising upset by The Football Team. Indianapolis went up big early only to fall flat the remainder of the game and let Jacksonville hang around. Then Javonte Williams’ Anytime TD bet was a winner, only to get called back by a penalty, giving us a losing week. It’s been a rough season, but onto the next!

• 2021 Season: 12-18 (40%, -6.5u)
  • Spread: 6-4, +1.3u
  • Total/Team Total:  4-9, -5.3u
  • Moneyline: 0-3, -2.3u
  • Props: 2-2, -.2u

As of August, this is my fourth NFL season writing for RotoBaller and I couldn’t more enjoy being a part of this amazing site with amazing writers and analysts. However, I will always keep the disclaimer of **I'm not a professional** but I love researching stats and finding value. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me. PLEASE be sure to odds shop. As sports betting becomes "legal" in more states, there's so many different books trying to get your business. Also, just an FYI, I "bet to lose" one unit on almost every play but will definitely label it if I do differently.

I'm glad to say that I am back and ready to bring you my favorite bets for Week 11 of the 2021 NFL season. I'll be here at RotoBaller all season long and you can find me on Twitter @stevejanik6 where I will occasionally add plays to my season record. I am always down to chat and spend most of my days and nights browsing for information or news. You can also follow me on the Action app (@sgjanik6) where I'll post every pick I have for a day and week. With that, I hope you enjoy, best of luck, and please bet responsibly!

NFL Betting Picks - Spread

Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills (-7)

Sunday 11/21, 1 PM EST | O/U: 49.5

It’s tough to find a more intriguing team right now than the Colts, who’ve won four of their last five while averaging 32 points per game. Running back Jonathan Taylor has established himself as a top back in the league, and it’s no coincidence that he rushed for over 100 yards in all four of their recent wins. Carson Wentz has been incredibly effective game manager this season, holding a 17/3 TD/Int and has thrown for over 300 yards just once. Outside of Michael Pittman  Jr., Wentz doesn’t have an elite receiving corps, but he’s still lead the offense to a Top 10 ypg mark over the L3. Defensively, Indianapolis has one of the easier slates over the last eight weeks and that includes facing Derrick Henry twice. They’re ranked 10^th in DVOA but 23^rd against the pass, leaving them vulnerable against a talented Buffalo pass attack.

Following the biggest NFL upset in recent memory in Week 9, to the Jaguars, the Bills took our their frustration on the Jets in a 45-17 win. Clearly the strange outlier in Week 9, the Bills’ offense has been a well-oiled machine this season, going over 350 yards of offense in seven of their nine games. Josh Allen has had his up-and-down moments but he’s still thrown for multiple scores in seven games so far and is averaging 10.2 yards per completion. On the defensive end, Buffalo is at the tops of the league in terms of yards (274 ypg) and points allowed per game (15 ppg). They also have a sizable lead in the turnover department, averaging 2.7 Takeaways per game, .6 more than the second place team which just happens to be Indianapolis.

This really has the chance to be the top game of the week. Some high-profile players on two top notch offenses with a lot to prove. However, Buffalo has had some serious underachieving moments this season and Indianapolis has had their moments of overachieving. While it’s hard to bet against Taylor, the Bills are the more complete team on all fronts.

Pick: Buffalo -7 (-110, BetMGM) 1 Unit

NFL Betting Picks - Spread

San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Sunday, 11/21, 1 PM EST | O/U: 45

San Francisco showed the Rams who was boss last week in a 31-10 home win, their first home victory of 2021. It was a balanced effort to reach 335 yards of offense as a team, but the star of the day was Deebo Samuel. The speedy receiver has turned into a do-it-all player for a Niners offense that has averaged 380 ypg over the L3. Jimmy Garoppolo has proven efficient as a game manager this season, but that's because Elijah Mitchell (finger) and the run game has been solid thus far. Mitchell and Samuel are banged up this week during practice, and it was announced Samuel is good to go but Mitchell is doubtful, so it will be interesting to see how the Niners gameplan. Defensively, the 49ers have been a mixed bag, allowing 123 rushing ypg, but they hold a Top 5 rank by DVOA against the run hinting that they are bound to improve. Against the pass, they've allowed just one 300 yard game all year, but they have just seven takeaways all season.

The Jaguars put up a testy effort against the Colts in their follow-up to the 9-6 win over Buffalo in Week 9. They were sparked by one big touchdown run from Jamal Agnew, but outside of that, the offense struggled mightily. It's back-to-back games that Trevor Lawrence hasn't thrown for 200 yards and he hasn't thrown a touchdown since Week 8. The rookie is getting thrown to the wolves, but has somewhat handled it well for a young signal caller on a terrible team. Running back James Robinson (heel) played last week and was limited Thursday, so expect him to play but he's clearly not 100% which is not great for the offense. Defensively, there's not much to be said but they have been solid of late, allowing under 100 ypg on the ground over the L3 and under 200 ypg through the air. However, they have just five takeaways all year, the worst in the league.

This line opened up favoring the Niners by four points and has worked it's way up to just under a touchdown, so I'm grabbing this before it's gets to a full score. Despite some injury issues with the Niners, there's enough talent on this team that they can get ahead of Jacksonville early and hopefully negate any garbage time opportunities for the Jags.

Pick: San Francisco -6.5 (+100, Foxbet) 1 Unit

NFL Betting Picks - Total

Miami Dolphins (-3.5) at New York Jets

Sunday, 11/21, 1 PM EST | O/U: 45

The Dolphins pulled out an ugly 22-10 win over Baltimore on Thursday Might Football in Week 10. Tua Tagovailoa had to come in and “save the day” despite dealing with a nagging finger injury, but he’s without one of his top targets in DeVante Parker. Electric tight end Mike Gesicki was targeted seven times but didn’t have one reception, showing a sign of the times for this offense that is averaging just 16.7 ppg over their L3. Defensively, they’re slightly below average in terms of DVOA and in their last two, they’ve allowed just 20 points.

The elite one, Joe Flacco, is set to jump back into starting an NFL game in Week 11. The Jets have been a total mess this season, however, they’ve rattled off odd wins against the Titans and Bengals. While anything could change, no one in the Jets organization is excited that Flacco will be the shot caller. Rookie tailback Michael Carter still hasn’t been given the lions share of work, but he’s been performing admirably of late, rushing for 202 yards and two touchdowns with 22 receptions for 242 yards over the last four games. This is about as exciting as their offense gets, as the receiving corps is a middling group of mediocrity. Defensively, it doesn’t get much worse, having allowed 40 ppg and 446 ypg over the L3.

There were some in the sports world who thought the Dolphins could make some noise this season. Well, without a healthy quarterback, that’s awfully difficult. On the other side, if you don’t have a quarterback at all, it’s tough to be even competitive. This game has stinker written all over it, especially with Flacco under center in NY. I don’t even want to touch a side, I’m just expecting a low-scoring game.

Pick: Under 45 (-110 BetMGM, 1 unit)

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