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Steve Janik's top NFL betting picks and best bets for the NFL Divisional Round games on 1/22/22 and 1/23/22. His free picks target the first half spread and team totals.
A 2-0 beginning to the playoffs is exactly what I needed for some mojo following a dreadful regular season. Cincinnati took care of business, although it wasn't pretty. Then thankfully the Arizona Cardinals were absolutely awful, as the Rams won 34-11, keeping our under safe and secure to close out the Wild Card Round. We look to keep this momentum as we head into the Divisional Round, inching us closer to crowning a champion.
- 2021 Season: 15-25-1 (37%, -10.6u)
- Spread: 7-5, +1.3u
- Total/Team Total: 6-13-1, -7.4u
- Moneyline: 0-5, -4.3u
- Props: 2-2, -.2u
I will always keep the disclaimer of **I'm not a professional** but I love researching stats and finding value. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me. PLEASE be sure to odds shop. As sports betting becomes "legal" in more states, there's so many different books trying to get your business.
I'm glad to say that I am back and ready to bring you my favorite bets for the Divisional Round of the 2021-22 NFL Playoffs. I'll be here at RotoBaller all season long and you can find me on Twitter @stevejanik6 where I will occasionally add plays to my season record. I am always down to chat and spend most of my days and nights browsing for information or news. You can also follow me on the Action app (@sgjanik6) where I'll post every pick I have for a day and week. With that, I hope you enjoy, best of luck, and please bet responsibly!
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NFL Betting Picks - Spread
Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans (3.5)
Saturday 1/22, 430 PM EST | O/U: 47.5
The Bengals won their first playoff game since 1991, and while it wasn't the prettiest of victories, it was a huge bubble lifted off their shoulders. Joe Burrow had a relatively quiet but mistake free day, throwing for 244 yards and two scores to Tyler Boyd and C.J. Uzomah. Ja'Marr Chase eclipsed 100 yards on nine catches, leaving Joe Mixon to have a surprisingly quiet day, tallying just 76 total yards. Defensively, I don't think the Bengals did anything very special, as they allowed over 400 yards of offense. However, it was just a matter of the Raiders being ineffective at capitalizing on drives, though Cincy did force two turnovers (both by Derek Carr). They've allowed an average of 391 ypg over their L3, and their run defense has taken the brunt of that, allowing 154 ypg in that stretch.
As the AFC's top seed, the Titans benefitted from a week off. Now, the team is possibly (likely) getting back stud running back Derrick Henry (foot) from injured reserve. The Alabama product has been practicing all week and while he hasn't been activated yet, that final decision is expected to come Friday. As a unit, the offense hasn't been at full strength all season. Ryan Tannehill posted middling numbers, as he was without A.J. Brown or Julio Jones for several stretches this season. This has clearly impacted them, as they rank the 20th best offense by DVOA, a -16 differential from a year ago. Defensively, they have been strong but not stout. They haven't allowed a 400 yard game since Week 6 against Buffalo and have three games under 300 yards allowed since their bye in Week 13.
This will certainly be the most overlooked game of the weekend, even if Henry returns, however, I think it will be one of the closest. If Henry does come back, I think he stutters out of the gate and I think Tennessee will work him back in, giving the dynamic Bengal offense a chance to get an early edge into half time, before their inexperience gets the best of them in the second half.
Pick: Bengals First Half +2.5 (+100, Fanduel) 1 Unit
NFL Betting Picks - Team Total
Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)
Sunday, 1/23, 3 PM EST | O/U: 48
Matthew Stafford and company took the Arizona Cardinals out behind the wood shed in the Wild Card Round, winning 34-11. Stafford's services weren't really much of necessity, throwing for just 202 yards but also two touchdowns. The combo of Sony Michel and Cam Akers tallied 153 total yards, giving the unit a nice back bone for a run through the playoffs. However, it's hard not to talk about the Rams without the mention of Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham Jr., with the latter scoring six touchdowns since his arrival on the Rams. This offense is a problem for opposing defenses. Fortunately for them, their defense is just as stout, ranking 5th in DVOA. They've tallied two takeaways in each of their L3 games and have at least one in the L9 games.
Much like the other Wild Card games, the Bucs took down Philadelphia quite easily, 31-15. They tallied 349 yards of offense and forced three turnovers in the rout, and that was without either of their top running back. Leonard Fournette (hamstring) has been practiving all week, and signs are pointing up that he'll go, which would be an immense boost to the offense, over guys like Giovani Bernard and Ke'Shawn Vaughn taking the load. Tom Brady was incredibly efficient in the victory, throwing for 272 yards with two scores and no turnovers. Of no surprise is that he's forced to rely on Mike Evans and Rob Gronkowski in the passing game, but Tom Brady has made a career of "making it work" with other lesser talents. The Tampa Bay defense isn't quite as good as LA, but they still rank 9th in DVOA and have also averaged two takeaways over the L3 games. The unit is banged up, no doubt, but they're well coached and will be ready for this test.
In 14 of 18 games, the Bucs have scored 26 or more points, and while they've had an easier schedule, this offense was on another level all year. Yes, now they're down two star receivers, but getting Fournette back will be massive. Vegas has the Bucs touchdown total set at 2.5 with odds as high as -190 (Draftkings). I think that's free money but a lot of juice to eat, so I'm going over on their team total here, expecting them to be able to drop three touchdowns easy, and to either get a fourth across or kick two field goals. I also think the Rams will be able to keep up in this one, so if you want to target the full game over, I wouldn't question it, but I also think that helps the play on TB here.
Pick: Tampa Bay Team Total Over 25.5 (-110, BetMGM) Bet 1.1 to win 1 Unit
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