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Good morning, RotoBallers! We officially have three more Saturdays until the College Football season begins. If you're someone who enjoys the quiet summer sports cycle, then enjoy your baseball-filled bliss for a few more weeks. If you're someone like me who can't wait for football season, then keep grinding toward that new season coming very soon!
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Saturday, August 5, 2023. Let's look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games. Find me on Twitter @BellRoto for all things fantasy MLB and MLB betting banter!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Tarik Skubal UNDER 15.5 Outs Recorded (-135 DraftKings Sportsbook)
This is a bet against Skubal being perfect on Saturday afternoon. The impressive lefty has been largely great in return from his injury. However, he's been limited to about 80 pitches as a maximum in his outings thus far. He is up against a heavy right-handed lineup that can string together hits in bunches. Skubal will need to be sitting at less than 75 pitches through five frames to convince his manager to send him back out. As long as that limitation has not been lifted.
I'll treat this more as a half-unit play, simply because we don't know the plan for Skubal coming in. But despite his impressive skill set, eclipsing five innings in less than 80 pitches is tough. Two starts ago the 26-year-old threw five innings of two-hit, no-run ball with nine strikeouts, but was pulled before the 6th inning with 82 pitches. With the Rays as dangerous as they are, I could see Skubal's line ending something like 5.0 innings, two earned runs, five strikeouts, and 85 pitches.
Kenta Maeda OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (+120 DraftKings Sportsbook)
I feel like I'm missing something here. Since Maeda returned from injury on June 23rd, he has struck out six or more batters in all but one of those seven starts. His pitch count should not be limited at all now that we're eight starts into his return from the IL, and he's sitting over 12 K/9 in his last three outings.
Even if we factor in that Arizona is one of the better offenses at putting the ball in play against right-handed pitchers, this number just seems too low, AND we're getting plus money on the wager. I'll trust Maeda's stuff to keep missing bats at over one per inning, and getting through six innings is a reasonable prediction for the 35-year-old veteran starter.
Tyler Anderson UNDER 17.5 Outs Recorded (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Lastly, Anderson's underlying numbers suggest he's due for a negative regression outing here. While he has pitched 12.1 innings over his last two starts against Pittsburgh and Toronto, he still owns a 5.45 xFIP on the year with less than a strikeout per inning and a crazy-high 3.71 BB/9 rate.
Before his two six-inning outings, Anderson hadn't gone more than 5.0 innings in any of his previous three starts. Against a righty-heavy Mariners lineup that's scored at least five runs in three straight contests, I'll bank on Anderson to meet some bumps early on. This will force him out of the game before he's able to complete the sixth inning on Saturday night.
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MLB Hitting Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Mike Tauchman OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-140 DraftKings Sportsbook)
I was able to target Tauchman last week in a similar spot against Adam Wainwright. Just as he was last week, the lefty lead-off hitter is coming off a day of rest on Friday, and he'll get a pitcher whose underlying numbers are scary in Bryce Elder. There should be five more opportunities for Tauchman to get a base hit, and when he does, there are plenty of dangerous hitters in the 2-5 slots behind him to bring him home at Wrigley. This is a juicy play, but it may be worth it in this instance. Especially when you look at Tauchman's 5-for-10, five runs, and six RBI performance in the Reds series a few days ago.
Bobby Witt Jr. OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Royals' pride and joy is RED HOT during this current seven-game hitting streak. Witt Jr. has racked up two doubles, a triple, and four homers in that span. There's no stopping him when he's seeing the ball this well, so this number is too enticing not to play on Saturday evening. Left-hander Christopher Sanchez takes the bump in Philly, and we should see the 23-year-old infielder notch a hit early. Hopefully, it results in Witt sliding into second base or even trotting around third.
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