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Casey Wilson's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 7/25/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.
Happy Tuesday, everyone. I am back today with some MLB bets after writing yesterday's DFS article. This is my favorite article I get to write here at RotoBaller, and I hope I have provided you with different ways to bet throughout the season. Today we will be going back to the basics and attacking a run line between two southpaws in San Diego and a moneyline on a team facing a rookie pitcher for the fourth time this season.
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I do not have a model with my bets, but I dig into many numbers daily to find separations or mismatches with the bets I recommend. I also doubt anyone out there watches as much baseball as I do, and the game's feel is a massive part of my picks. In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Tuesday, July 25, 2023. We will focus on money line bets, totals, and team totals. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games. Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Pirates @ Padres
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: SD (-275)
PIT: Rich Hill | SD: Blake Snell
We start our action today in San Diego with a matchup between the Pirates and the Padres. Two lefties will toe the rubber today as the Pirates will send Rich Hill to the bump, and the Padres will send the red-hot Blake Snell to the mound. The Padres have been playing better lately and are 11-9 in July. The Pirates have struggled as of late and sit at 5-15 this month, entering play today.
Hill starts today with a 4.81 SIERA, 19.3% K%, and a 1.02 WHIP. Since June 1, he has a 4.43 SIERA, 18.9% K%, and a 1.45 WHIP. Hill has been getting knocked around in his last three starts. He owns a 6.33 SIERA, 7.8% K%, and a 1.85 WHIP in that frame. Snell has turned it on and has arguably been the best pitcher in the big leagues over his last ten starts. He has a 3.14 SIERA, 39.2% K%, and a 1.03 WHIP in that span.
The Padres are one of the best teams in baseball against left-hand pitching. They own a 112 wRC+, .332 wOBA, .440 SLG and a 9.7% BB%. The Pirates, on the other hand, are ice-cold against the split. Over the last month, they own a 74 wRC+, .281 wOBA, .328 SLG, and an 8.1% BB%. I love this spot for the Padres, and I will not only be betting on the -1.5 run line but on the -0.5 run lines for the first three and five innings. Fire up the Friars.
Pick: Padres -1.5 run line (-130) DraftKings Sportsbook
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Reds @ Brewers
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: MIL (-150)
SD: Andrew Abbott | MIL: Corbin Burnes
Andrew Abbott will toe the rubber against Corbin Burnes in our last bet of the day. This will be Abbott's tenth start this season. This will also be the fourth time he will face the Brewers in those ten starts. Two of those starts were his worst starts of the season. I firmly believe a team seeing a pitcher for the fourth time in less than two months is a significant advantage to the bats.
Burnes has been excellent in July. He's strung together four straight starts, posting a 3.01 SIERA, 36.4% K%, and a 0.63 WHIP. The form has been great, and he's starting to turn in at the right time for the Brewers.
The Brew Crew has been surprisingly excellent this season. They have the sixth-best record in the big leagues. They are 7-3 in their last ten games, including a 4-0 mark against the Reds. Burnes is hot, and the Brewers will face the young rookie for the fourth time this season. Look for the Brewers to get to Abbott early here and take another one from the Red Legs.
Pick: Brewers moneyline -150 DraftKings Sportsbook
Good luck, Rotoballers!
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