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Happy Tuesday, everyone! Today we have our usual massive MLB slate of Tuesday baseball. Today we are going to focus on two first five-inning bets. We have two matchups between starting pitchers tonight, where both are in the top five of SIERA and the bottom five. This makes for two very attackable spots in the first five innings against these arms.
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I do not have a model with my bets, but I dig into many numbers daily to find separations or mismatches with the bets I recommend. I also doubt anyone out there watches as much baseball as I do, and the game's feel is a massive part of my picks. In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Tuesday, June 6, 2023. We will focus on money line bets, totals, and team totals. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games. Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Diamondbacks @ Nationals
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: WAS +135
ARZ: Tommy Henry | WAS: Jake Irvin
We start our action today in Washington with a matchup between the Diamondbacks and the Nationals. Tommy Henry will be toeing the rubber for the Diamondbacks, and Jake Irvin will get the ball for the Nationals. Both arms are in the bottom three of the 30 arms throwing tonight on SIERA. We also have two offenses in the top ten of wRC+ against the opposing pitcher's handiness, making this a perfect spot for a first five inning over runs scored.
Tommy Henry enters today's start with a 5.42 SIERA, 9.6% BB, and a .233 BAA. Jake Irvin is in the same boat. He has a 5.64 SIERA, 13.7% BB, and a .260 BAA. Both pitchers own a WHIP over 1.25. All this means is there will be traffic on the basepaths while these two are on the mound. It's up to the offenses to be able to capitalize.
The Diamondbacks own a 105 wRC+ against right-hand pitching, the eighth-best in baseball. They have a .330 wOBA and a .434 SLG, both top ten in baseball against the split. The Nationals own a 113 wRC+ against left-hand pitching, which is ninth-best in baseball. They hold a .342 wOBA and a .426 SLG in the top third as a team against lefties this season.
When we have a spot this good against the starting pitcher, I like to eliminate the bullpens and focus on the first five innings, which we will do today.
Pick: OVER 5 runs, first five innings (-125) DraftKings Sportsbook
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Astros @ Blue Jays
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: TOR -130
HOU: Hunter Brown | TOR: Kevin Gausman
In our second matchup of the night, we have the Astros battling the Blue Jays. In this matchup, two starting pitchers are in the top five of SIERA out of the 30 arms on the bump tonight. We also have two pitchers who have been excellent with swing-and-miss stuff.
Hunter Brown has a 3.28 SIERA, 7.8% BB, 28.8% K, and a .245 BAA. On the other side, Kevin Gausman has a 2.91 SIERA, 5.9% BB, 32.9% K, and a .231 BAA. Both pitchers have at least a 44% GB as well. All this means is we have two arms that aren't going to allow a ton of baserunners. When they do, they have good enough stuff to induce ground ball and strikeouts to get themselves out of innings, preventing much damage.
The difference in this matchup is that both offenses are in the top half of wRC+ against the opposing pitchers' split. I will buy into the pitchers here tonight, and their success working out of jams to achieve the first five innings under runs scored.
Pick: UNDER 4 runs, first five innings (-110) DraftKings Sportsbook
Good luck, Rotoballers!
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