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Brenton Kemp's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 10/12/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, props, and other various baseball bets.
It sure is weird having just one baseball game on the docket this evening but here we are as the Phillies look to close out the favored Atlanta Braves in their NLDS tilt tonight in the City of Brotherly Love.
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I do not have a model with my bets, but I dig into many numbers daily to find separations or mismatches with the bets I recommend. I also doubt anyone out there watches as much baseball as I do, and the game's feel is a massive part of my picks. In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Thursday, October 12, 2023. We will focus on money line bets, totals, and team totals. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games. Follow me on Twitter @BKemp17 for more free betting and DFS advice.
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: ATL (-155)
ATL: Spencer Strider | PHI: Ranger Suarez
The Phillies have an opportunity to close out their division rivals on Thursday night as they hand the ball to left-hander Ranger Suarez.
The 28-year-old worked to a 4.18 ERA on the season but he also turned in a 3.90 FIP and a 2.90 SIERA, both of which suggest he was better than his surface ERA might indicate. He is the owner of a 3.41 ERA and 3.72 FIP across his 454 career big-league innings as he has proven to be a reliable arm for the Phils since debuting in the 2018 season.
In baseball, they say momentum is only as good as the next day's starting pitcher. However, after the Phillies dismantled the Braves by a 10-2 count on Wednesday, it's easy to see the momentum is with the home side on their home turf. The Phillies' bats are hot but Spencer Strider has largely had his way with then.
Strider, of course, strikes out more batters than anyone in baseball and he tossed seven innings of one-run ball with eight punchouts to begin this NLDS series. While his ERA was superior at home, just about every other metric tells us he was inferior on the road. The right-hander has had his way with the Phillies, however, tossing 21 innings of five-run ball while racking up 28 strikeouts against them over his last three matchups against his division rival.
This contest should be much closer than the blowout we witnessed on Wednesday. In fact, these arms are both in good spots to keep some dangerous bats in check. Strider has handled these Phillies with relative ease and has seen a lot of them lately while the underrated Suarez is a run-prevention machine.
We'll look for a low-scoring affair in this one tonight.
Pick: Under 8.5 runs (-115, DraftKings sportsbook)
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O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: ATL (-155)
MIA: Spencer Strider| PHI:Ranger Suarez
We only have one game to comb through this evening, so why not get a little silly?
We're looking at the strikeout props in this one. No, not the over or the under, but who will punch out the first batter of this game? We are getting fantastic value on the best strikeout pitcher in baseball.
Sure, as the home team, Suarez gets the first chance at striking out a Braves hitter. However, with a mediocre 22% K% in the regular season, a first-inning punchout is far from a sure thing. On the other side of the coin, if he fails to strike out a Braves hitter in the top of the first inning on Thursday evening, Strider's massive 36.8% K% comes into play.
As noted above, he struck out 28 Phils over his last 21 innings against them. The Phillies ranked 20th with a 23.9% K% on the season and leadoff man Kyle Schwarber struck out in 29.9% of his plate appearances on the season.
There appears to be a serious amount of value on Strider earning the evening's first strikeout and he should be able to do so at appetizing odds.
Pick: Strider first strikeout (+160, DraftKings sportsbook)
Good luck, Rotoballers!
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