RADIO
Between Sunday's Course Preview piece (found right here on RotoBaller), and last night's hour-long podcast with Joe Nicely (currently posted on our Twitter page), we've given y'all every possible trend, key stat, and player take needed to make the most educated betting decisions possible in the opening week of the 2024 PGA Season. This Wednesday article will now serve as a final bow to wrap up a jam-packed week of PGA content at Flag Hunting. No fluff, no rants or superfluous soliloquies, just the entirety of our 2024 Sentry outright betting card.
The seven names on this betting card are aimed at returning ~6.5 times our investment in a given week (including projected live-adds). Because of the inflated odds associated with the outright market, it becomes even more imperative to remain disciplined when setting your unit allocations from this article's picks. Golf outright betting is a notoriously fickle beast, and multiple month-long droughts are very much within the range of outcomes. However, at these prices, one single hit can pay off many weeks of bad luck or poor decision-making.
In the two-year history at Flag Hunting, we've been fortunate enough to cash a total of 21 outright winners (a 22.1% hit rate), for a profit of nearly $16,000 (betting roughly $350 per week), and an aggregate ROI of 45.9%. The volatility of the sport means I can't promise you a winner in any given tournament, but if you're willing to bet methodically and stick with the process, the outright golf betting market has the potential to be one of the most profitable (and enjoyable), betting sweats in the business. But I suppose I'd better keep my word about the necessary rants, so with no further ado, here's every bet I've made for the 2024 Sony Open!
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The Sentry Betting Card
Justin Rose (45-1)
Given the uncertainty I discussed on many of the field's top names in my Course Preview article, my overall approach has shifted compared to last week at Kapalua. As opposed to firing on three names under 40-1 to make up a bulk of my outright exposure, I'm instead looking to a few overlooked commodities at the back of the board I feel are currently undervalued.
Justin Rose leads that list for me at 45-1, as the Englishman comes into his sixth Sony Open start on the back of a record-tying final round at Kapalua. Rose spent much of his week on Maui in the doldrums, but Sunday's final round finally gave us a taste of the player we saw reemerge as a Top 25 golfer in the world last summer. Rose gained nearly five shots to the field in his final round between his iron play and his putter, and carded just six pars in a 12-birdie, bogey-free 61.
That momentum boost should serve him well around a venue like Waialae, where Rose has recorded four top 20s in five starts -- including a runner-up finish back in 2017. Although he hasn't made the trip to Oahu since that 2nd place finish seven years ago, Rose-backers should take some comfort in the repeated success he's been able to record on similar, positional courses. His win last season came on another short, coastal course in Pebble Beach, and since 2020, Rose has recorded 7 finishes of 20th or better around the likes of Harbour Town, Sedgefield, Colonial, TPC Sawgrass, and Sea Island.
You also don't exactly have to travel too far back to find glimpses of Justin's resurgent ball-striking form, as Rose led the field in SG: Approach at last December's Hero World Challenge (+4.12), while rating out second in that field in SG: Putting (+4.44). I believe books have been far too quick in shooting Justin Rose down the odds board, and at 45-1, I value him just as highly as many preeminent names priced 10-15 points above him.
Cameron Davis (55-1)
Speaking of a player the books have been quick to douse in cold water, Cameron Davis would have been considered one of the hottest names in this field just a few months ago, as the talented Australian recorded seven finishes of 12th or better over eight starts from July-November. Following that torrid stretch, Davis seemed primed for his breakout victory after an opening 63 at Sydney's Lakes Course vaulted him into the lead of the ISPS Australian Open. However, three rounds of 74, 70, and 75 followed to straddle him back into a tie for 42nd.
Davis didn't fare much better in his opening start of 2024, as Cam found himself 20 shots off the lead through three days at Sentry. However, like Rose before him, Davis used his final round as a launching pad for this week in Oahu: carding an 8-under 65, and leading the field in Total Driving in the process.
Now Cam will return to a much more familiar canvas, as the Aussie has recorded four straight top 40 finishes at Waialae since 2020 (including a 9th place four years ago). In that time, he's also lapped all comers in SG: OTT here on Oahu. Now, when you consider Davis's profile as a whole (extremely distance-biased), this stat may seem odd at a venue that typically values precision over power. However, looking back through Davis's top results throughout his career, this dominant history around Waialae becomes far less surprising.
Cam ranks 5th in my modeling when it comes to comp. course history. Over the last two seasons, he's recorded six finishes of 7th or better at Harbour Town, TPC Sawgrass, Colonial, Sedgefield, and TPC Southwind, and many of the top results that put him on the map down the stretch of last season came on shorter, easier setups (Shriners, Fortinet, Wyndham, etc.). He also rates out 8th in Weighted Proximity and 6th in SG: Tee-to-Green over the last six months.
From a birds-eye view, their games may appear to be vastly different, but I see Rose and Davis as very similar commodities on the betting board this week: proven PGA Tour winners with an extensive history on corollary courses, and drastically deflated numbers due to a singular lull in form. I believe they're each worth a look in this 40-60 range on the odds board.
Lucas Glover (75-1)
If you happened to read my "Scouting the Routing" piece here on RotoBaller Monday morning, then the 75-1 on Lucas Glover should have been one of the more jarring prices on the market when lines opened. His community win at the Wyndham was one of my more frustrating misses of the 2023 season. Not just because the course was tailor-made for his skillset, but also because the recent form was right there in front of us.
Glover's stretch of 11 starts from the RBC Canadian Open to the TOUR Championship in which he gained an average of 4.46 strokes ball-striking and 3.56 strokes on approach per tournament remains one of the better runs of play in recent memory, and despite a slight lull during the fall period, the sweet-swinging South Carolinian proved that those 11 tournaments were far from his final swansong.
Lucas led last week's elite field in SG: APP at Kapalua (+5.32) and now returns to a venue where he lapped the field by 3 shots on approach in a 5th-place finish two years ago. Glover's precision-based playstyle should have no trouble acclimating to the strategic test on tap on Oahu, especially given his two wins at Sedgefield and Southwind last summer profile as similarly positional tests off of the tee.
By many metrics, Glover is still the best iron player in this field over the last 6-8 months, ranking first in both weighted proximity and SG: Approach over his last 50 rounds, and he's much of his hay on faster bermudagrass greens during this late-career resurgence. It's not often you can get a player with this sort of all-around upside this far down the board; I'm more than willing to give the Glove another try at the perfect fit.
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Aaron Rai (75-1)
We're starting a list of longshots making their first starts of 2024 with Englishman Aaron Rai. In just two years of full-time PGA Tour membership, Rai has already established himself as one of the most accurate drivers of the ball on the planet (69.72% in 2023; 6th on Tour), while also seeing significant strides in his approach baselines over the last 6-8 months (0.7 SG/Round on APP; 7th in this field).
This newfound ball-striking form served him particularly well on shorter, positional layouts like Colonial and Oakdale (host of the 2023 Canadian Open), as Rai recorded his two best iron weeks of his entire PGA Tour career (+7.4 and +8.2 respectively), in 3rd and 12th-place finishes last summer. His elite ability to keep his ball in the fairway has also allowed him to notch five additional T20s at Mayakoba, TPC Sawgrass, Sea Island, TPC Summerlin, and TPC Southwind since 2019, and Rai comes into the New Year on the back of a prolific stint around the world last fall.
Rai recorded a 2nd-place finish in the DP World Tour's marquee event at Wentworth -- rating out fourth in the field from tee to green in a field that included the entire European Ryder Cup Team, a few PGA Tour mainstays (Tom Kim, Adam Scott, Billy Horschel), and other elite names the American viewership will come to know very soon (Min Woo Lee, Adrian Meronk, Alex Bjork, etc.). The very next month he recorded results of 21st and 28th in the PGA Tour's abrupt travel from Vegas to Japan, and ended his season with top 10s in Qatar and South Africa, gaining a combined 7.56 shots with his iron play in those two weeks.
Rai profiles tremendously well for the test ahead of him this week on Oahu, and seems to be a bit of a forgotten entity on the odds board. When accessed right alongside Lucas Glover at 75-1, I don't think either of them possesses a drastically different upside case then players at one-half, or even one-third of their outright number.
Alex Noren (85-1)
Saucy save from Alex Noren on 18.
He ends the day with a one-shot lead @Bermuda_Champ pic.twitter.com/XCaHy4C2WR
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) November 11, 2023
A common theme of this outright card has been taking advantage of prices I feel have dipped too far on the back of a few weeks off of bookmakers' radars. Alex Noren is no exception to this rule at 85-1, as the Swede seemed as primed as anyone to break out in a big way to end 2023. Finishes of 2nd and 3rd at Port Royal and Summerlin (two similarly positional, wedge-intensive venues to Waialae), were followed up by a 23rd-place finish at the RSM Classic.
It was a slightly disappointing end to what had been a very promising Fall Swing for Noren, however, when you take into account the fact that Noren ranked 153rd out of 156 players in SG: OTT for the week (-4.0), a top 25 result doesn't look all that bad. The driver has certainly been the main Achilles heel for Alex over the last 12 months, however, it should be noted that Sea Island does possess a lot more peril to wayward drivers of the ball than any other course on the PGA Tour (10.3% penalty fraction since 2015). Waialae is generally more forgiving to off-line tee shots, and Noren took advantage of these friendly confines in his only career Sony start four years ago. The 2.1 strokes he gained off-the-tee that week was the best mark of his 2020 campaign, and the 7.4 shots he gained from tee-to-green still rates out as the sixth-best mark of his PGA Tour career.
With the driver less likely to hurt his chances this week on Oahu, Noren can further lean into the parts of his game that carried him to legitimate opportunities at his first PGA Tour win last fall. Noren rates out inside the top 10 in both long-term bermudagrass putting, and general SG: Putting splits since the start of last summer. He's drastically increased his approach baselines over the last six months -- gaining nearly half a shot per round on the field in that time, and possesses a positive history at many of my key comp. courses (TPC Sawgrass, PGA National, Harbour Town, TPC Southwind, etc.). It's been less than two months since Noren was being steamed into the 28-1 range to win the RSM Classic. This new price of 85 seems like a much steeper drop-off than he deserves to start the New Year.
Ryo Hisatsune (130-1)
The local crowd loved this one 👏
Ryo Hisatsune walks it in for birdie @ZOZOCHAMP. pic.twitter.com/0y169dQMIN
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) October 22, 2023
I've been singing Ryo's praises all week from RotoBaller to Twitter, so at 120-1, I felt compelled to take a shot in the outright market. 21-year-old phenom out of Japan is entering his fourth year as a Touring Professional and has already notched four wins in that time. Now, three of those wins came as an 18-year-old on the Japanese Challenge Tour, however, since earning DPWT status via the Japanese Order of Merit last year, Hisatsune introduced himself as a real threat on the world stage:
- 18 Top 20's in 27 starts in Europe
- Winner at Le Golf National last fall, also known as the 2018 Ryder Cup/2024 Olympic venue
- Currently on a string of seven consecutive finishes of T21 or better; including the aforementioned win in Paris, a T6 at last fall's ZOZO Championship, and finishes of T8 and T13 at the two largest Championships in Australian Golf (ISPS Handa Aussie Open & the Fortinet Australian PGA Championship).
He also ranked inside the top 10 on the DPWT in both Driving Accuracy and SG: Putting, which makes for an enticing combination around a shorter, positional venue in Waialae this week.
It seems far-fetched to project a win so soon for a player not yet fully introduced on the American stage, but Ryo also added an under-the-radar T10 in last summer's Barracuda Championship as well as a T12 in the 2022 ZOZO. That's three finishes of 12th or better in four PGA Tour starts - if there's anyone in this dead zone past 100-1 that I feel confident can pop up at the top of this leaderboard, it's a 21 y/o phenom riding some of the form of his life.
Alexander Bjork (140-1)
To round out the pre-tournament card this week, we're once again taking a shot on a player making his first career start as a fully-fledged member of the PGA Tour. Bjork is a much more refined commodity on the world stage -- logging ten seasons between the European Challenge Tour and the DP World Tour before earning membership here in the States last fall. However, don't let his age fool you into calling Bjork a journeyman, as the Swede put together the best all-around season of his career as a 32-year-old in 2023.
His year-long stats almost defy belief, as Bjork ranked 4th on the DP World Tour last year in Driving Accuracy, 4th in SG: Approach, 8th in SG: Putting, and 6th in Scrambling. To rate out that well in all four facets of the game is almost unheard of on any Tour, and although he wasn't able to capitalize with a win, Bjork had more than his fair share of chances. He finished inside the top 10 on nine separate occasions in 2023, including a runner-up to countryman Ludvig Aberg at the Omega European Masters in September.
Bjork's precision off-the-tee, along with his aptitude with the irons and putter, should work wonders around Waialae's positional layout. At 140-1, the profile is more than compelling enough to take a shot on a player who could well turn out to be one of the hidden gems of our incoming class of 2024.
Best of luck guys, and Happy Hunting!
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