RADIO
Between Monday's Course Preview piece (found right here on RotoBaller), and last night's podcast (currently posted on our X page), we've given all of you every possible trend, key stat, and player take needed to make the most educated betting decisions possible this week at the Hamilton Golf and Country Club. This Wednesday article will now serve as a final bow to wrap up a jam-packed week of PGA content at Flag Hunting. No fluff, no rants or superfluous soliloquies, just the entirety of our 2024 RBC Canadian Open outright betting card.
The four names on this betting card are aimed at returning about 6.5 times our investment. Because of the inflated odds associated with the outright market, it becomes even more imperative to remain disciplined when setting your unit allocations from this article's picks. Golf outright betting is a notoriously fickle beast, and multiple month-long droughts are very much within the range of outcomes. However, at these prices, one single hit can pay off many weeks of poor decision-making.
In the two-year history at Flag Hunting, we've been fortunate enough to cash a total of 23 outright winners (a 20.1% hit rate) for a profit of over $14,000 (betting roughly $350 per week) and an aggregate ROI of 34.9%. The volatility of the sport means I can't promise you a winner in any given tournament. Still, suppose you're willing to bet methodically and stick with the process. In that case, the outright golf betting market has the potential to be one of the most profitable (and enjoyable) betting sweats in the business. But I suppose I'd better keep my word about the necessary rants, so with no further ado, here's every bet I've made for the 2024 RBC Canadian Open!
Canadian Open Challenge Betting Card
Sahith Theegala (21-1)
Sahith Theegala chips in for BIRDIE 🔥
He’s now tied with Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele, and Shane Lowry for the lead at the PGA Championship 🏆 pic.twitter.com/lLXXyW4A3O
— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPoints) May 18, 2024
The only player in this field to rank inside the top 15 in driving, approach play, and putting over his last 36 rounds, The numbers continue to make it abundantly clear that the breakout win is coming swiftly on the horizon for 26-year-old Sahith Theegala. Admittedly, 12 months ago, I would not have liked Hamilton as a course fit for the Californian, as his notoriously wayward driver routinely caused him problems on the Tour's most accuracy-intensive venues.
As we're prepared to enter the sixth month of 2024, however, it's clear that Theegala has turned a real corner with his biggest long-term deficiency. Through 13 starts, he ranks 25th on Tour in Total Driving, in the 65th percentile for Driving Accuracy, and in the 75th percentile for Good Drive Percentage.
If these off-the-tee trends do continue for Sahith, you won't find a better combination of recent approach play and putting upside, as Theegala has gained 3.3 per start to the field on Approach and 3.1 with his putter since the PLAYERS Championship in mid-March. He's already come within a single hole of a win at a similarly positional, bentgrass course at TPC River Highlands, and recorded the second-best putting week of his season in his last bentgrass start at Valhalla. Even at prices bordering on 20-1, I remain exceptionally bullish on Theegala's weekly prospects -- as only one player on the PGA Tour has gained more strokes without a win this season. More on that later.
Corey Conners (25-1)
Corey Conners puts it to 13ft for eagle on 18.
Misses the putt but taps in for birdie to get within 1 stroke of the lead.
+550 live to win as the 2nd favorite @FDSportsbook pic.twitter.com/8hBePLT4TY
— Golfbet (@Golfbet) June 9, 2023
After Nick Taylor broke the 69-year Canadian drought at their home open, could another of his countrymen make it two on the bounce? With Taylor Pendrith's win at the Byron Nelson earlier in the month, the Canadians now boast an impressive six names in the top 100 of the World Golf Rankings. And although Taylor has undoubtedly given the country its greatest golfing highlights over the last 12 months, there has been no man more reliable in the Catnadian camp than 32-year-old Corey Conners.
As the calendar approaches the month of June, Conners is approaching an incredible 12-month milestone without a missed cut. He's put together a stellar 2024 campaign: including six top 25s (four of which coming in elevated fields), and only two finishes outside of the top 40 since February.
Conners also currently sits at #2 on the PGA Tour (after Scottie Scheffler), in Strokes Gained: Approach, and if we zoom in for recent form, he's created a gap in this field that's virtually unprecedented from anyone outside of the super-elite talents in the sport. Over his last 36 rounds, the difference between Conners' field-leading SG: Approach figures and the second-best player in this field (Akshay Bhatia), is equal to the difference in Bhatia and the 18th-best iron player in this field: Nick Taylor.
This truly elite iron play is complemented splendidly with one of the more reliable drivers in professional golf (Second in Good Drive Percentage over his last 36 rounds; eighth in Driving Accuracy). And although Corey's greatest historic bugaboo has come on the greens, he's actually been an above-average putter over his last 50 rounds on Bentgrass (+0.04/round since the start of 2021).
Conners has also found success at each of his last two home Opens: recording finishes of 20th and sixth over his last two starts at Oakdale at St. George's. Given Hamilton's similarly positionally-intensive layout, I see no reason why Conners can't carry over that form to 2024, and follow the likes of Jim Furyk, Webb Simpson, Matt Kuchar, and Henrik Stenson as shorter, precision ball-strikers who found success around this track.
Time will tell if lightning is capable of striking twice for the home nation this week, but if there were ever a profile to tie your money to right now, Conners' metronomic ball striking is about as safe as it gets in the world of golf betting. As his outright prices drift into the mid-20s, I'm more than willing to make him my leading man in his home province of Ontario.
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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
Alex Noren (27-1)
Alex Noren drives the Par-4 14th with no problem at all 😳 pic.twitter.com/pwqgOCs3UN
— Golf on CBS ⛳ (@GolfonCBS) May 4, 2024
I previously alluded to a single player who has outshone Sahith Theegala in my "Strokes Gained: Due" rankings, and with the fourth best SG: Total average on the entire PGA Tour, it's veteran Swede Alex Noren who has a great case for the title of the most trustworthy player in this field. Noren hasn't missed a cut since the Fortinet Championship last September -- recording three top-three finishes and a top 25 rate of over 70% in 17 starts since.
Similarly to Sahith, Noren has also made a stark progression in his greatest long-term deficiency: driving accuracy. Noren has placed above field average in Fairway Percentage in 13 of his last 14 starts, and sits as the eighth best player in this field in Good Drive Percentage (defined as any drive that either winds up in the fairway, or results in a Green in Regulation).
Noren also ranks eighth in this field in SG: Approach over his last 36 rounds, third in SG: Around the Greens, and tenth in putting from 5-15 feet over his lat 50 rounds on Bentgrass greens. If the driving trends remain stable for the Swede, it's difficult to find a hole in his all-around profile. Already a ten-time winner on the DP World Tour, perhaps a venue outside of the United States is the perfect site for Noren to break his long-standing curse on North American soil. In any case, 27-1 presents a ton of value for a guy riding an 8-start streak of top 25 finishes.
Aaron Rai (50-1)
Throwing darts 🎯
Aaron Rai makes birdie to move to -15. #BMWPGA | #RolexSeries pic.twitter.com/WzsSBUIdqZ
— DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) September 17, 2023
I'm likely about to sound like a broken record from last week's article, but after gaining seven strokes ball-striking at Colonial, I see no reason to steer away from my affinity for Aaron Rai. The Englishman represents a very similar case to the one I made for Conners: using a combination of elite driving accuracy and stellar approach play to establish himself as a routine threat at these positional venues. He ranks second in my positional driving model on comparable off-the-tee layouts, and over his last 36 rounds, only Conners, Akshay Bhatia, and Keith Mitchell have gained more strokes with their iron play.
The 7.9 strokes he gained from tee-to-green last week will go down as not only the fifth-best performance of his entire PGA Tour career but the second time he's recorded a top-end performance around Colonial Country Club. However, there has been one set of courses for which Rai has experienced even more top-end success: the last two hosts of the Canadian Open. Between St. George's in 2022 and Oakdale in 2023, Rai has gained a combined 24.7 strokes from tee to green. These two weeks represent the best two performances of his PGA Tour career from this standpoint, and if not for a crucial three-putt on the par-three eleventh on Sunday, Rai could have very well found himself alongside Taylor and Fleetwood in last year's playoff.
As it stands this year, however, Rai enters the Canadian Open in some of the best-sustained forms we've seen from the 29-year-old. He's gained an average of 5.3 strokes from tee-to-green over his last five starts (more than two times his career baseline), while also rating out as an above average putter over the last two months. Rai proved last year that he's capable of contending for a win with even an average week on the greens (+0.1 strokes Putting in four rounds). With the way he's striking the ball now, I'm even more confident that the pieces are due to come together for another shot at that elusive maiden victory.
Justin Lower (165-1)
Movin' on up 📈@justinlower_1 moves into solo second after carding three birdies on his first four holes. pic.twitter.com/b9NpjDbOyy
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) April 19, 2024
After Davis Riley cashed his backers tickets in excess of 300-1 last week in Fort Worth, it seems as though the only players capable of reversing this recent run of favorites are those deep into the triple digits on opening odds boards. By my numbers, Justin Lower at 165-1 represents the best chance we have of sustaining that trend.
Lower may not have the ingredients to execute the Rory McIlroy path to victory here back in 2019, but one look at the rest of the leaderboard that week (Webb Simpson, Brandt Snedeker, Matt Kuchar, etc.), would point you to profiles that look awfully similar to the skillset employed by the 35-year-old Ohioan en route to two top-four finishes in 2024 and four additional top 30 results over the the last two months alone.
Lower currently ranks seventh in this field in SG: Total over his last 36 rounds. He ranks 10th in Birdie Chances Created, fourth in Birdie or Better Percentage, and is the best bentgrass putter in this field over the last 50 rounds (averaging 0.67 strokes gained per round since the 2022 John Deere Classic). Lower also ranked third in the Myrtle Beach Classic three weeks ago from a per round perspective on approach, and has gained a combined 11.1 strokes on the greens of Oakdale and St. George's at the 2022-23 Canadian Opens.
His off-the-tee profile is far from optimal around this notoriously penal venue, but at 56th out of 160 players in Good Drive Percentage over his last 36 rounds, Lower does rank ahead of popular names such as Tom Kim, Adam Hadwin, and Nick Taylor in this category. If he can keep the driver in play, there aren't a lot of names in his price range that provide the same sort of upside from the second shot onward.
Best of luck, guys, and happy hunting!
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