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Andrew Ball evaluates the fantasy football value of Saints running back Kendre Miller in dynasty leagues heading into 2024. He ranks him among dynasty RBs in the NFL.
The New Orleans Saints offense was supposed to take a step forward in 2023 with Derek Carr under center...until it didn't. Carr was essentially the same quarterback he's always been. It was the running game that held everybody back.
The Saints averaged the second-fewest yards per carry (3.6) across the league, tallied just four carries of over 20 yards, and zero of over 40 yards. Rushers averaged just 2.1 yards before contact (29th). The offensive line didn't live up to preseason expectations, but the coaching staff kept trying between the tackles, finishing the season 21st in rushing yards per game and the top 10 in total carries.
Improving the offensive line was a clear priority for the Saints front office this offseason, investing their first-round pick into tackle Taliese Fuaga while signing depth tackle Olisaemeka Udoh and guard Shane Lemieux. New offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak brings a zone-heavy approach to the game and should rely on a pair of rushers to propel the offense. Enter second-year running back Kendre Miller.
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Kendre Miller 2023 Season Review
Alvin Kamara was forced to sit for the first three games of the NFL season due to a suspension, opening a window for Miller to receive a healthy amount of touches. A knee injury didn't allow him to take advantage.
Injuries were the story of the season for the rookie out of TCU. Miller injured his right knee during the Fiesta Bowl in the College Football Playoff in December 2022. That sprain did not allow him to participate in rookie minicamp. Once he finally hit the field during training camp, another injury to the same knee sent him back to the medical training staff. A hamstring issue delayed his NFL debut until Week 3.
With Kamara serving the final game of his suspension and Jamaal Williams also injured, Miller led the backfield in carries for a meager 34 yards. A blowout in New England in Week 5 allowed him to rack up 90 total yards on 16 opportunities, but he was largely relegated to spot duty throughout the rest of the first half of the 2023 season.
Then came another injury, this time to his ankle. The third-round pick wasn't seen from Week 10 through Week 17, only returning in the Saints' season finale, a game which Kamara missed. For the first time in the NFL, he shined, recording career-best marks in carries (13), rushing yards (73), and touchdowns (one).
After review, Kendre Miller breaks the plane for his first career TD! @Offical_dre11
📺: #ATLvsNO on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/X0vcyHUoyR pic.twitter.com/nJVwhly7im— NFL (@NFL) January 7, 2024
That's what fantasy managers hold on to as we enter Miller's sophomore season. The talent and potential is there.
What is Kendre Miller's Fantasy Football Worth in Dynasty Leagues?
Now is the time to acquire Kendre Miller.
His value has marginally dipped since 2023 rookie drafts. Depending on who you asked, he was anywhere from the RB3 (trailing stars Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs) to the RB6 (behind backs like Zach Charbonnet, De'Von Achane, and Roschon Johnson). Achane and Tyjae Spears jumped Miller in the pecking order, although he sits ahead of Johnson if he didn't before.
The next exercise is to stack him against the 2024 crop of running backs. Miller turns 22 years old on June 11. He's younger than Blake Corum and MarShawn Lloyd and just a month older than Trey Benson. Out of the top runners in this class, Jonathon Brooks and Jaylen Wright are also younger. For all intents and purposes, Miller could be a part of this group. The ex-Horned Frog belongs in that conversation if Wright and Lloyd are second-round picks in rookie drafts.
Kendre Miller is the youngest player on the Saints at just 21 years old
Even at TCU, it took a little time for him to have the backfield to himself
The Saints are a team in flux Kendre’s situation could look very different very soonpic.twitter.com/dBw2OWCXYt https://t.co/jAKENwsq70
— Joe O’Leary (@TheHQNerd) January 19, 2024
Besides Brooks, all those backs listed in the paragraph above are backups on their respective teams. Part of the allure of Benson and Wright is that 29-year-old James Conner and 32-year-old Raheem Mostert are listed above them on their respective depth charts. Miller is competing with soon-to-be 29-year-old Alvin Kamara and 29-year-old Jamaal Williams, who struggled with rushing efficiency last season. The end is near.
That's not to say that Miller is guaranteed to become the lead running back for New Orleans once the team moves on from Kamara and Williams. However, Miller may already be taking over the backup role over Williams this offseason. Kamara's future and contract are more uncertain, but he could be used more in the passing role where he thrives and let Miller take on the brunt of the work between the tackles. If he shows enough to become the next Saints' featured running back, it'll cost dynasty managers significantly more capital to acquire him.
Kendre Miller 2024 Fantasy Football Outlook
Miller has plenty to prove in what is essentially a make-or-break year for his long-term NFL future. There are two directions his second season can take.
In the first, he siphons some of the rushing workload from Kamara and delivers a flex-worthy floor in non-PPR formats while building his case to be the future RB1. Kamara will, deservedly so, continue to excel in the underneath routes and outlet passes for Carr.
Miller hasn't shown a proclivity to do damage through the air. He secured just 29 passes in three seasons with the Horned Frogs and 10 last season in black and gold. He claims his receiving skill set is underutilized and showed that by logging four receptions and 53 yards against New England in Week 5, plus this nasty wheel route in the preseason.
Jameis to Kendre Miller on the wheel route. A fantastic ball from Winston and a nice diving catch by the rookie RB pic.twitter.com/1uMO5KFMJN
— Billy M (@BillyM_91) August 20, 2023
In the second scenario, Miller isn't able to outright win the backup job over Williams, and the Saints continue to call Taysom Hill's number down around the goal line. Before he becomes the next man up, he'll need to show that he can stay healthy for extended periods. But there aren't many clearer paths across the NFL to touches for a backup, at least on teams that don't already deploy an even two-back system.
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