Later-Round Lotto Tickets - Fantasy Football Draft Picks that Could Pay Off Big

July 26, 2022

Jack Camenzind evaluates five deeper 2022 fantasy football draft sleepers that could be breakout performers. These are his later-round lotto tickets to draft.

There is no bigger rush in fantasy football than hitting on a late sleeper. Everyone has their targets on who they think will be this year’s diamond in the rough. Unfortunately, it’s an art that the majority of players are in the dark on.

In this article, I’ll be going through 5 players who have a shot at being strong values for fantasy football in 2022. Assuming the ADP data provided by Underdog Fantasy remains relatively similar, all of the players we’ll be diving into should be available in the final few rounds of most drafts. 

The players listed will be in the order of most to least expensive at their current price. Now before I waste any more of your time with this introduction, let’s take a look at five players that have the potential to be value picks heading into the 2022 NFL season.

K.J. Osborn, Minnesota Vikings

After an incredibly uneventful rookie year where he worked exclusively as a punt returner, K.J. Osborn came onto the scene and received significant usage in 2021. Operating as the WR3 behind Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen, he managed to accrue 50 receptions on 82 targets for 655 yards and seven touchdowns. 

Heading into this coming season, K.J. Osborn is a candidate to receive a strong uptick in usage with former Rams offensive coordinator Kevin O’Connell taking over as head coach. Under Mike Zimmer, the Vikings were an old-school offense that was committed to establishing the run game at all times.

With O’Connell, Minnesota should be running an offense that is similar to what the Rams operated under last season which ranked top-10 in pass attempts and top-5 in passing yards.

At worst, Osborn could have similar usage to Van Jefferson last season. In 2021, Jefferson had his fair share of productive fantasy performances while having just over 800 yards and six touchdowns on the season. 

As for his peak though, there is a possibility that Osborn moves into the WR2 role that Adam Thielen has been occupying. Thielen has been a recipient of major touchdown luck over the past few years and he isn’t getting any younger as he turns 32 in late August.

He also dealt with a high-ankle sprain that sidelined him for the final four games of 2021, so the signs of age are there. If Thielen’s body and performance continue to wear down, Osborn could have a great opportunity to capitalize.

Over the past two seasons, Adam Thielen has secured 20-of-28 end zone targets.

All other NFL WRs over the same time frame have a 37.3% rate. pic.twitter.com/uq9IA5kE5c

— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) July 12, 2022

Osborn is heading into a revamped offense that should be utilizing the passing game at a much higher rate under the new coaching staff. If he is able to evolve along with the rest of this offense while seeing more targets, his 12th-round ADP should be well worth the price.

Nico Collins, Houston Texans

Aside from Brandin Cooks, there aren’t many options in the Texans’ offense that drafters should be excited about. That being said, in an offense that has been characterized as a barren wasteland, Nico Collins appears to be the next best option for Davis Mills.

Collins is coming off of a rookie year that wasn’t statistically impressive as he finished with 33 receptions on 60 targets for 446 yards and one touchdown. Despite those measly numbers, Collins showed flashes and he has a true X receiver build that the Texans are in need of.

Davis Mills ➡️ Nico Collins #Texans pic.twitter.com/Of3GT2sV7z

— Daniel Gotera (@DTGoteraKHOU) June 14, 2022

Judging by offseason reports thus far, Collins seems to be making strides in claiming sole possession of WR2 in Houston. That might not seem like much but Davis Mills showed the potential of being a solid quarterback last season and the Texans have been considered an offense that has the capability of taking a step forward.

If the Texans are able to evolve into a somewhat formidable offense, then Nico Collins could be a decent contributor as a WR2 for a team that is projected to have its fair share of negative game scripts in 2022. 

If the positive reports about Collins continue to be pushed out, then I’d be more than comfortable with taking him at his risk-free ADP of 164. That ADP should land him about halfway through the 13th round, an area where most picks are just fliers anyway.

Darrel Williams, Arizona Cardinals

Darrel Williams is a handcuff running back that could have some actual stand-alone value in 2022. While Williams was with the Chiefs in 2021, he surprised many with his productive receiving work out of the backfield.

He tied with D’Andre Swift for 5th in running back receiving yards (452) while also tying with Zeke Elliott and Alvin Kamara for 9th in running back receptions (47). Williams did what Clyde Edwards-Helaire was drafted to do in Kansas City and that's to be a solid dual-threat running back.

DARREL WILLIAMS LOOKING LIKE A WR. #ChiefsKingdom

📺: #KCvsLV on NBC
📱: https://t.co/FF7Rvmy1OI pic.twitter.com/A0EwSefKng

— NFL (@NFL) November 15, 2021

After his unexpectedly productive season with the Chiefs, Darrel Williams has joined Arizona’s offense as a possible filler for the hole that former Cardinal Chase Edmonds left. James Conner is currently recognized as the unquestioned lead back in Arizona after his RB5 finish in 2021 but I’m not so sure that his monster production is going to carry over into 2022.

James Conner’s fantasy relevance was heavily based on his ability to find the end zone (18 total touchdowns) and that isn’t a reliable form of production season-to-season. 

Also, the Cardinals were favoring a committee approach at running back prior to Edmonds’ injury in Week 9 as Edmonds handled a majority of the receiving work.

There is a decent chance that Darrel Williams, a running back with sound receiving skill, allows the Cardinals to return to the committee approach that they ran throughout the first half of last season. If Williams is moved into that sort of role in this Arizona backfield, then his current ADP of 171 (14th round) could be one heck of a value.

Austin Hooper, Tennessee Titans

Out of all the players on this list, Austin Hooper is almost certainly the least exciting. Hooper had a strong 2019 where he was the TE3 on a PPG basis, but ever since he signed a lucrative deal with Cleveland in 2020, he’s been irrelevant for fantasy.

Now that he’s been freed from the clutches of the Cleveland Browns, Hooper has a chance to revive his career with a team that could provide the perfect scenario.

Outside of last season where there was no established option at tight end, the Titans have been a team that targets the tight end position at a higher rate than most. During Mike Vrabel’s first three years as a head coach (2018-2020), the Titans' tight ends had a 25.33 percent target share.

Austin Hooper’s addition to this offensive scheme should bring a return to that trend as he offers a lot more to the receiving game than Anthony Firkser.

Since 2014, the Tennessee Titans have ranked outside the top 8 in tight end target share just one time.

2021, after the loss of Jonnu Smith.

They brought in Austin Hooper at the outset of free agency. Hooper is free in drafts and has a great opportunity to return TE1 value. pic.twitter.com/LgDnhRVxxy

— Jeff Bell (@4WhomJBellTolls) July 15, 2022

In addition to that, the Titans are a bit low on receiving weapons for 2022. They have newly signed Robert Woods who is coming off an ACL tear, Treylon Burks who is a talented first-rounder that has been reported to have his own set of physical struggles, and… that's about it. Maybe you could throw Nick Westbrook-Ikhine in there but that’s close to being too generous. 

In short, Austin Hooper might have a strong share of this team’s receiving work allotted to him. Add in the report from ESPN’s Turron Davenport that says Hooper and Tannehill are building a strong rapport and we might have one of the best tight end values in 2022. 

Hooper is currently being drafted as the TE24 at pick 182.5 in the 15th round. For a tight end that has a solid shot at playing a large role in his offense while returning TE1 value, you really can’t beat that price tag.

Sony Michel, Miami Dolphins

The Miami Dolphins were fairly active in free agency, especially on offense. Outside of their monster trade for Tyreek Hill, Miami brought in Chase Edmonds and a Mike McDaniel favorite, Raheem Mostert, to take over the backfield from Myles Gaskin.

After the moves of free agency had died down a bit, the Dolphins felt that they could still use some help at running back and brought in Sony Michel to make this backfield even more ambiguous.

Dolphins signing RB Sony Michel. (via @RapSheet) pic.twitter.com/DRTDtqaDec

— NFL (@NFL) May 9, 2022

With four options in this running back room, Michel’s path to fantasy relevance might appear to be dead in the water. However, after looking a little deeper into this backfield’s makeup, his path to production can be a lot more streamlined. 

For starters, we can just remove Myles Gaskin from the equation as most would assume that he’s fourth in the pecking order. Next, when we look at Raheem Mostert, he’s made of glass bones and paper skin while also coming off of a season that he missed the entirety of with chipped knee cartilage. Then, of course, Chase Edmonds is the favorite to assume the majority of the workload due to his 2-year, $12.1 million deal. 

That leaves Sony Michel. At the very least, Michel offers some variety to this backfield as Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert have pretty similar frames. What should really set him apart is his usage in the red zone in comparison to his counterparts.

Using statistics compiled from lineups.com, Chase Edmonds averaged 1.7 red zone rushing attempts per game in 2021. Raheem Mostert, in his last somewhat healthy season (2020), averaged 2.0 red zone rushing attempts per game. What we really want to know is: how does Michel’s red zone rushing usage compare? 

In 2021, Michel had an average of 2.6 red zone rushing attempts per game, the 15th highest average among NFL running backs. So while Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert may be better options between the 20s, it’s clear that Sony was brought in to score rushing touchdowns for Miami.

Also, with an inevitable injury to Mostert, Michel moves into a clear 1B role that receives the majority of red zone usage. With a practically free price tag of RB64 at pick 207.9 (17th round), Sony Michel has a chance at providing massive value to those that take a shot on him in 2022.

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