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Trade candidates to buy or sell in fantasy baseball after Week 16 of the 2022 MLB season. Ben Rosener lists overvalued and undervalued players to target or trade away.
Making the right trades can be crucial to championship success in fantasy baseball, almost as much as the draft, if not more. While most trades can have a significant impact on your fantasy team, it’s the deals where you acquire undervalued players and then see their production improve that can really tip the scales in your favor where the standings are concerned.
The same can certainly be said about trading away players at the right time when they have the most fantasy trade value. Those deals could happen in the second week of April or the last week of August, but they’re impactful all the same.
Here are some undervalued candidates to pursue in trades and some overvalued ones who you should consider dealing for if they presently occupy a spot on your roster.
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Undervalued Players To Trade For
Andrew Heaney, Los Angeles Dodgers
Before returning from the injured list on Wednesday for a start against the Washington Nationals, Heaney had made just three starts for the Los Angeles Dodgers this season. Despite the limited sample size, there was plenty to like.
In 15.1 innings, Heaney struck out 23 batters and was sporting a 45.6% whiff rate on his slider. Opponents hit just .111 with a .249 xwOBA and a 31.5% whiff rate against the former Angel’s four-seamer and he allowed only one earned run in those 15.1 innings. He was also doing all that while pitching for baseball’s best teams.
On Wednesday, Heaney only threw four innings against Washington, but there were still encouraging signs. He logged 12 whiffs on just 71 pitches and finished with a solid 30% CSW rate. The right-hander limited scattered a hit and three walks in four shutout innings while also striking out four batters.
With Mitch White being optioned to Triple-A, Heaney should continue to see starts for the Dodgers, which will only help his fantasy value.
Entering play on Wednesday, only the Houston Astros had more pitcher wins from their rotation than Los Angeles’ 44 rotation wins. Clayton Kershaw, Tyler Anderson, Julio Urias, and Tony Gonsolin all have at least seven victories on the season and as long as Heaney stays in the rotation, he’ll continue to be a quality option for fantasy managers in search of pitcher wins.
With the recent return from the injured list, paired with an outing in which he pitched just four innings, it’s possible someone in your league might be more likely to move Heaney now as opposed to if he was coming off a run of quality fantasy starts. Now’s the time to make a trade as that run of quality fantasy starts could be on the horizon, especially with Heaney pitching in a Dodgers uniform.
Frankie Montas, Oakland Athletics
Frankie Montas has done just about everything that you’d want out of a starting pitcher on your fantasy team. He has posted a 3.18 ERA and a 3.36 FIP in 104.2 innings pitched. 109 strikeouts compared to just 28 walks in those 104.2 innings. Well, almost everything.
After winning 13 games in 32 starts last season and nine games in 16 starts in 2019 for contending Oakland teams, Montas has managed just four pitcher wins in 19 starts this time around. That’s obviously more about the vastly different and struggling A’s team around him than Montas.
The right-hander’s four-seamer and slider are both missing more bats this season, and while opponents are making more contact against Montas’ split finger offering, it’s still been remarkably effective with little difference between the batting average (.180) and wOBA (.217) against the pitch and the xBA (.181) and xwOBA (.218) against the pitch.
Despite all that, it’s been difficult to register the same type of pitcher wins on an Oakland team that entered play on Wednesday having managed the second-fewest runs scored in the league. If there’s a short list of players with the most to gain from a fantasy standpoint from a real-life trade in the coming days, Montas might be at the top of the list. He has the potential to be a fantasy league winner in the second half pitching for a pennant-chasing club.
Tyler Mahle, Cincinnati Reds
If Montas is at the top of the shortlist of players with the most to gain from a fantasy standpoint from a real-life trade, Mahle isn’t too far behind on that list.
The Cincinnati starter is sporting a 4.48 ERA in 98.1 innings, but he’s been decidedly better than that number would suggest, with a 3.78 FIP. While he has the 19th-highest home runs allowed per nine innings rate among qualified starters at 1.10, much of that might have to do with the Reds’ ballpark. A ballpark that a late July or early-August trade would move Mahle away from.
Nine of the 12 homers Mahle has surrendered this season have come at home. Unsurprisingly, his road ERA (3.83) is more than a run lower than his home ERA (4.94). Elsewhere, the starter’s expected home run number by ballpark is more than 12 in just eight of the league’s other 29 ballparks. In fact, in 14 parks, Mahle’s expected home run metric is actually less than 10 as of the beginning of play Wednesday.
Getting away from the Reds’ group of fielders might not hurt either. Only five teams have a lower Def than Cincinnati at -13.3. Just two teams, the Giants and Nationals, have a worse DRS than the Reds at -27.
The veteran, per Spotrac, isn’t a free agent until after the 2023 season, so there is a chance that he’s still pitching in Cincinnati after the August 2 trade deadline. If the Reds, like the A’s, continue to trade away veterans, Mahle stands out as a potential trade candidate. If he is traded by Cincinnati you’ll want him on your fantasy team down the stretch.
Overvalued Players To Trade Away
Raisel Iglesias, Los Angeles Angels
Iglesias was mentioned in the “Undervalued” portion of this column in the middle of May, May 14 to be exact. Back then he was a closer with an ERA that wasn’t quite an accurate representation of how good he’s been this season due to a strong track record and, more importantly, elite bat missing metrics.
Much of that is still true of Iglesias. His FIP (3.21) is decidedly lower than his ERA (4.36) and he currently sits in the 90th percentile or better in strikeout rate (97th), chase rate (94th), and whiff rate (91st) and he’s certainly not someone you want to move in dynasty or keeper leagues. However, the biggest change between May and now has been the Angels’ place in the standings.
Shohei Ohtani and company are perilously close to the Oakland Athletics in the American League West basement and could sink even further down the standings with Mike Trout on the injured list and Noah Syndergaard a speculative trade candidate.
Iglesias is still going to get saves, but it just might not be at the rate we’ve been used to over the years if the losses continue to pile up for the Angels. If you’re in a season-long league, now might be the time to see what you can get in an Iglesias trade.
Capitalize on his name value and try trading him in a deal that nets you a notable upgrade elsewhere on your roster while also bringing back another source of saves like Paul Sewald or Giovanny Gallegos. With several closers around the league potentially on the move at the deadline, you should be able to make up the difference in saves of the waiver wire with setup relievers stepping into ninth-inning roles.
Carlos Rodon, San Francisco Giants
Rodon has been excellent in his first season in San Francisco, pitching to a 3.18 ERA, a 2.41 FIP, 148 strikeouts, and 39 walks in 116 innings of work. He’s also logged eight wins on the season. He’s certainly not the most obvious candidate for fantasy managers but could be someone to consider moving for two key reasons.
The first reason is a fairly straightforward one. Innings pitched. Rodon has never thrown more than 165 innings in a Major League season. He logged 132.2 last season and is at 116 innings as of Wednesday.
The second, and slightly less straightforward one, is the Giants’ place in the standings. In fairness, San Francisco is only 3.5 games back of a Wild Card place in the National League, but they’ve lost seven in a row. If the losses continue and the Giants become sellers, Rodon’s fantasy upside would certainly be impacted, especially if San Francisco trades the 29-year-old, who per Spotrac, can opt out of his contract this winter.
Rodon has been very good on the road, with a 3.88 ERA and a 2.66 ERA in 72 innings outside of San Francisco, but he’s been elite at Oracle Park, logging a 2.05 ERA and a 2.01 FIP in 44 home innings.
Provided he can stay effective, he’ll continue to be a top-20 fantasy option. But if the Giants continue to fall out of the playoff picture, it might be prudent to consider trading Rodon. If San Francisco becomes a seller, I might try trading Rodon for someone like Brandon Woodruff and a starting-caliber position player.
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