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Making the right trades can be crucial to championship success in fantasy baseball, almost as much as the draft, if not more. While most trades can have a significant impact on your fantasy team, it’s the deals where you acquire undervalued players and then see their production improve that can really tip the scales in your favor where the standings are concerned.
The same can certainly be said about trading away players at the right time when they have the most fantasy trade value. Those deals could happen in the second week of April or the last week of August, but they’re impactful all the same.
Here are some undervalued candidates to pursue in trades and some overvalued ones who you should consider dealing for if they presently occupy a spot on your roster.
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Undervalued Players To Trade For
Raisel Iglesias, Los Angeles Angels
Even in late May, a reliever’s ERA can be equal parts misleading and bloated due to a bad outing or two. That’s precisely what the case is with Raisel Iglesias, who has a 3.94 ERA and a 3.62 FIP in 16 innings this season. The Angels veteran gave up five runs, four of which were earned, over the course of two outings in a four-day span from May 14 to May 18.
Prior to that, he had a 2.13 ERA, a 2.55 FIP, and his usual high strikeout numbers (11.37 per nine frames) in 12.2 innings of work. Since then, he’s struck out six of the eight batters he’s faced over the course of 2,1 scoreless innings.
A deeper dive into Iglesias’ metrics show he’s still being incredibly effective, just like he has been in the past, particularly in the bat-missing department. His overall whiff rate might be down from 40.9% last year to 34.5% this season, but that might have more to do with his increased usage of his sinker this season than anything else. Otherwise, his slider and four-seamer are missing plenty of bats. While the overall whiff rate has gone down, relatively speaking, it still sits in the 92nd percentile league-wide. In short, he’s still elite at missing bats.
Raisel Iglesias Pitch Usage Breakdown
Raisel Iglesias in 2021:
- Four-Seamer: 34.9% Usage Rate, 31.4% Whiff Rate
- Slider: 30.8% Usage Rate, 51.0% Whiff Rate
- Changeup: 24.6% Usage Rate, 48.8% Whiff Rate
- Sinker: 9.6% Usage Rate, 21.2% Whiff Rate
Raisel Iglesias in 2022:
- Four-Seamer: 28.8% Usage Rate, 42.4% Whiff Rate
- Slider: 31.2% Usage Rate, 50.0% Whiff Rate
- Changeup: 19.0% Usage Rate, 25.9% Whiff Rate
- Sinker: 21.1% Usage Rate, 12.0% Whiff Rate
- Cutter*: 0.4% Usage Rate, 0.0% Whiff Rate
*Iglesias has thrown exactly one cutter.
If someone in your league is worried that Iglesias is in any way on the decline and is willing to listen to offers on him, now is the time to make a move. Outside of the 2019 season, Iglesias’ ERA has finished below 2.80 in each season since 2016. It’s probably going to go down, and you’ll want him on your team when it does.
I’d try trading another closer like Daniel Bard or David Bednar with a replaceable (off waivers) bench bat for Iglesias.
Alex Cobb, San Francisco Giants
In 31.2 innings spread over six starts this season, Alex Cobb has a 6.25 ERA. That’s the bad news. It might be the only bad news when breaking down the numbers of the veteran hurler. Otherwise, it’s been an ideal start for the right-hander, whose 2.75 FIP is much more indicative of his actual performance.
Once again using his sinker and splitter pairing (with some curveballs mixed in) to great effect, Cobb has struck out 39 batters while allowing just nine walks. Furthermore, he’s achieved the double of logging a high strikeout rate (27.7%) while also limiting barrels (1.1%). In fact, Cobb, Zack Wheeler, and Freddy Peralta are the only starters this season, minimum 20 innings pitched, to have a strikeout rate above 27% and a barrel rate below 5%.
The stark contrast between Cobb’s ERA and other run prevention numbers alone – his xERA is 1.92 – makes him someone to try and acquire in trades. His ability to limit barrels and hard contact makes him even more of an appealing trade target for fantasy managers. So far this season, the 34-year-old ranks in the 92nd percentile or better in both average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
After the Mets scored six runs on Monday against Cobb, it might be even easier to acquire him via trade. Now’s the time to make a move for him as he’ll only become more effective as the season goes on and his peripherals even out.
Dansby Swanson, Atlanta Braves
Chances are the manager in your league with Dansby Swanson drafted him after a run of shortstops went off the board. Swanson’s ADP, per NFBC, put him behind 16 other shortstops in drafts. If that’s the case, and you’re looking to upgrade at shortstop, making a move now for Swanson could be beneficial. Or perhaps you’re waiting for Fernando Tatis Jr. to return and missed out on Jeremy Pena on waivers earlier in the season. Whatever the case may be, Swanson could be the solution.
First things first, we’ll talk about the strikeouts. Get that out of the way. Yes, the strikeouts are there this season for Swanson. He’s punching out 34.1% of the time in 2022, which is on pace to shatter his previous career-worst in a full season (25.6% in 2021). While those swing and miss concerns might continue to a degree – it is worth noting that Swanson’s chase rate this season at 25.6% is reasonably similar to his 24% chase rate in 2021 – the power and speed combination and upside is too hard to ignore here, especially if you also missed out on those elite shortstops who went early in drafts.
Swanson has logged a 13.8% barrel rate this season, which if playoffs started today, would be a career-best. While that metric probably looks slightly better due to less overall contact, he has logged 12 barrels this season. That’s the same number as Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Paul Goldschmidt, and more than Mookie Betts, Nolan Arenado, and George Springer.
What’s more, the shortstop also seems to be running more than ever with six stolen bases through 43 games. His previous career-best is 10, which achieved in both 2018 and 2019 in 144 and 136 games respectively. The strikeouts aren’t ideal, but Swanson’s power and speed production make him plenty useful and valuable in fantasy.
Corey Seager, Texas Rangers
Much has changed from a fantasy surrounding standpoint for Corey Seager. He’s gone from batting in a loaded Dodgers lineup to hitting in a Rangers batting order that currently ranks in the bottom ten in the league in runs scored, on-base percentage, and wRC+.
He’s also hitting in an entirely different park. Last year, per Statcast, Dodger stadium tied with four other parks for having the third-highest overall Park Factor in the league. By comparison, only eight ballparks finished with a lower overall Park Factor than Texas’ Globe Life Field in 2021. Though it is worth noting that Globe Life Field currently has the fourth-highest Park Factor in the sport this season in terms of runs scored, per ESPN.
That all may have spoiled this next bit to a degree, but regardless, here are Corey Seager’s numbers from two different seasons in his career. As you can see, they aren't that different.
Season A: .295 xBA, .392 xwOBA, .428 xwOBAcon, 49.3% hard-hit rate, 12.4% barrel rate, 16.1 K%
Season B: .291 xBA, .382 xwOBA, .443 xwOBAcon, 46.0% hard-hit rate, 9.7% barrel rate, 18.6 K%
Season A was last season with the Dodgers when he hit .306 with a .394 on-base percentage and 16 home runs in 409 plate appearances. Season B? That’s Seager’s production this season with the Rangers. He’s currently batting .239 with a .308 on-base percentage and eight home runs in 172 plate appearances.
Yes, there are couple fewer barrels so far, and the hard-hit rate has dropped a bit, but he’s still producing at a fairly similar rate to what he did last season from a quality of contact standpoint. While there isn’t stolen base upside here like Swanson, Seager should be much more productive than he has been. As it happens, he actually has the same number of barrels as Swanson. If you need a shortstop, he’s certainly someone to consider making a deal for.
Overvalued Players To Trade Away
Jose Berrios, Toronto Blue Jays
This one comes with a few caveats. One, Berrios, at 27 years old, is still a hold in dynasty formats. Two, Berrios could still turn things around. He’s allowed just three hits in his last 13.1 innings and has given up three runs or fewer while pitching at least five innings in five total outings this year.
The bad has almost outweighed the good in terms of the starter’s metrics this season. Balancing out those quality outings are three poor starts against the Rangers, Guardians, and Yankees. Berrios only recorded one out while giving up four earned runs, three hits, two walks, and a home run against Texas in his first start of the season. Later, on May 5 and May 11 respectively, he was tagged for 13 hits, 11 earned runs, two home runs, and two walks while striking out a total of four batters in a combined 10 innings against Cleveland and New York.
While his numbers since that start against Texas (47 innings, 4.02 ERA, 4.06 FIP) are better, they’re certainly not what fantasy managers expected when they invested a high draft pick in Berrios.
Those more recent metrics could help you get a deal done, and while they look encouraging, they’ve come with little in the way of strikeouts (just 6.70 per nine frames during that span). Elsewhere, Berrios’ overall whiff rate has dropped to a career-low 18.8% and the whiff rate on his primary bat-missing offering, his curveball, has decreased as well.
- Jose Berrios’ curveball in 2022: 29.5% Usage Rate, 28.9% Whiff Rate
- Jose Berrios’ curveball in 2021: 30.5% Usage Rate, 34.4% Whiff Rate
The Blue Jays starter is also simply giving up too much hard contact. His hard-hit rate has ballooned to a career-worst .472 this season. Pair that with the decrease in swing and misses and you have a recipe for subpar fantasy production.
Don’t just trade him for any sort of return, but if you can get a similarly elite pitcher who is perhaps struggling a bit but with better underlying peripherals, like Brandon Woodruff, now would be the time to make a move.
Ozzie Albies, Atlanta Braves
Some of Albies’ numbers are more or less on par with where they were last season.
- Ozzie Albies in 2021: .259 average, .310 OBP, 6.9 BB%, .260 xBA, .278 BABIP
- Ozzie Albies in 2022: .253 average, .305 OBP, 6.4 BB%, .268 xBA, .270 BABIP
What’s more, he’s logged six home runs and three stolen bases so far, bringing the type of power and speed production that saw him turn in a 30-home run, 20-stolen base season last year.
The only glaring difference, however, is that he isn’t hitting the ball anywhere near as hard on a consistent basis. Plus, the barrels have dried up to an extent as well.
- Ozzie Albies in 2021: 6.9% barrel rate, 37.2% hard-hit rate
- Ozzie Albies in 2022: 4.9% barrel rate, 25.2% hard-hit rate
Albies’ hard-hit rates have never been among the best in the league – his 2021 hard-hit rate was actually his personal best – so to see it continue to drop certainly isn’t ideal. The flipside to that coin is that Albies has always produced with low hard-hit rates, but his 2022 showing in the metric currently has him ranked in the third percentile league-wide. Not ideal.
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