March 17, 2016

James Ayello analyzes Mitch Moreland as a 2016 fantasy baseball sleeper and draft value. This MLB first baseman projects to exceed his ADP and can be a sleeper.

Flipping through NFBC ADP numbers recently, I saw Mitch Moreland sitting at 231, 20th among first baseman, and thought, “Wait, didn’t he have a 'breakout' season last year?”

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2015 In Review

I didn’t own any of his shares, so I couldn’t remember. But a few clicks later and sure enough, I found that Moreland enjoyed a career year that looked like this.

.278/.330./482, 23 HR, 85 RBI, 471 AB

Huh, I thought. That’s strange. Those numbers are rock solid. I wonder how many guys collected .280/20+/80+ seasons last year. A few more clicks, some quick arithmetic and I had my answer: 17.

It turns out, according to Razzball’s final totals, Moreland accumulated $10.20 worth of value in traditional roto leagues, 14th among (primary) 1Bs and 107th overall. He was worth about $1 more than Lucas Duda (139 in NFBC) and a little more than $1 behind Evan Longoria (112).

So why is he being drafted so low this year?

Well, in NFBC leagues, it’s somewhat understandable. Moreland struggles against lefties, and in weekly formats like NFBC, he becomes somewhat of a liability.

Still, 231 is too low for a guy who is not a one-year wonder — he hit 23 home runs in 2013 — and whose 2015 peripherals support his stellar season.

For comparison, I put him next to Yoenis Cespedes, who garnered MVP consideration last year.

 
Obviously, the biggest difference here is the gap in opportunity. Give Moreland those extra 161 plate appearances Cespedes received, and Moreland probably cracks 30 bombs, too.

2016 Outlook

The extra appearances shouldn’t be out of the question, either, especially now that he’s 100 percent healthy — he revealed recently that he played two months last season with a stress fracture in his left foot. And with Mike Napoli now in Cleveland, there is little threat that to his ABs against same-handed pitching against whom he is bad but not useless (.245./293/.387 in 2015).

Actually, Cespedes, too, suffers from a bad platoon split. Against lefties, Cespedes hit .223/.297.439 with just 13 extra-base hits. Moreland had 12. Still, Cespedes managed a career year.

It bears repeating, Moreland is being selected No. 231 overall. Cespedes is at No. 39

I’m not saying Moreland’s going to be Cespedes in 2016, but he is being severely undervalued as a very good CI option for those who play in leagues with that position. And for those in daily leagues, he could be one half of an excellent platoon — perhaps with Adam Lind (No. 258 in NFBC drafts) —  if you miss out on the top-tier 1B.

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