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Nick Mariano's potential fantasy baseball busts, avoids, overvalued players in the early rounds. His pitchers and hitters with inflated ADPs to fade in drafts.
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Fantasy baseball content tends to skew toward optimism, whether that's finding the next big prospect to break out or unearthing a sneaky sleeper. Still, we can't lose sight of how poor early picks can hurt just as much as stellar late picks can help. It's a delicate balance and today we're weighing up the pessimism.
To evaluate overvalued players here, we will utilize consensus Average Draft Position (ADP) from Yahoo, RTS, Fantrax, and NFBC. Please note that "overvalued" does not mean these players suck or will outright fail, only that the price is suboptimal. You may still find a decent position to draft them in select drafts.
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Early-Round Overvalued Players - Hitters
Catcher: Adley Rutschman (ADP: 62)
Rutschman’s third MLB season started with a .300/.351/.479 triple slash, logging 15 home runs and 12 doubles through 77 games. But the wheels fell off after June 27, as his final 71 contests supplied a horrid .189/.279/.280 line with four homers (14 extra-base hits). The .329 BABIP of the first half gave way to a .207 clip down the stretch but this ran far deeper than simple bad luck.
Let me present first-half metrics, with the lousy second-half in parentheses next to them. First-half Adley enjoyed a 43 percent hard-hit rate (28.6 percent) and 8.9 percent barrel rate (2.8 percent), rocking an 89.6 mph average exit velo (86.5 mph).
His pull rate fell two percentage points, the fly-ball rate rose nearly seven points, and the line-drive rate sank almost eight points. More lazy flies and fewer line drives will certainly result in a crummy BABIP, even if we acknowledge .207 is overboard.
But that’s also simplifying the issues. Rutschman also only hit .219 against right-handed pitching. His walk rate went from 13.8 and 13.4 percent in 2022 and ‘23 to “only” 9.1 percent, accompanied by a five-point rise in chase rate. Most of his lag came against fastballs (.519 SLG in ‘23 to .436 in ‘24).
Those are not good things! The bright side is that he’s still 27 years old and has a decent track record, even if the fantasy ceiling isn’t as high as once envisioned. While we celebrate Camden bringing the left-field dimensions back in a bit, this price bakes in a full rebound as if nothing bad happened.
First Base: Bryce Harper (ADP: 20)
His injury history and being 32 as someone who debuted at 19 combines to form a mix I don’t love this early on draft day. Yes, he played through wrist and elbow worries and was sidelined due to a hamstring issue, but still tallied 145 games – his most since 2019.
Harper was hitting .303 with 20 home runs and a .981 OPS over 76 games before the hamstring sent him to the injured list for a couple of weeks. He would only hit .266 with an .807 OPS the rest of the way, which is not tragic, but not a second-round batter.
This is not to say you are drafting Harper here as if he were injured, but the risk at this point is too much to bear. This writer prefers his early risk to come on ascending talents rather than targeting those on the decline with notable medicals. If Yordan Alvarez were 32 rather than 27 then I’d say the same thing.
Thomson said he isn’t worried about Bryce Harper’s elbow. “He gets these stingers from time to time”
— 𝐾𝑦𝑙𝑒𝑒 シ (@BSP_Sully) September 26, 2024
Second Base: Ozzie Albies (ADP: 51)
Those who believe in the Albies Pendulum Theory can move along, as he’s exploded in odd years only to struggle and deal with injuries in the even ones. Last year (2024) was no exception as Albies only mustered a .707 OPS with a rough 15 HR/12 SB pace, with two months down the drain due to a fractured left wrist. He also missed time in April for a fractured right big toe after being hit by a pitch. You may recall the fractured foot via HBP in 2022 as well.
Perhaps you hand-wave the fluke injuries as being primarily responsible for robbing Albies of finding a groove and press on at ADP. That’s fine, but he did have three straight months of play last year and only hit .245 with six homers and swipes apiece. This level of inconsistency does not spark joy with the price tag.
Third Base: Rafael Devers (ADP: 31)
It’s Devers by default thanks to being withheld from game action until mid-March. A pair of sore shoulders tripped up the slugger last year and that hasn’t dissipated quite yet. Mechanical adjustments have been made and he’s still trying to get his timing down in live batting practice before seeing live pitching.
Perhaps a move to designated hitter will preserve his health, even if he mentally balks at the switch, but it’s an uncomfortable unknown. And if his morale is sapped from being moved off of 3B or feeling betrayed by the organization, then that can’t be seen as a positive either.
In reality, the top third basemen are all solid buys due to the top-heavy market. Jose Ramirez is amazing. Manny Machado consistently delivers. Austin Riley shook off a slow start with 16 home runs and a .292/.354/.588 slash in just 57 games before his season-ending hand injury. Devers’ situation makes him the weakest link of the top tier.
Some people don't seem to be aware when it comes to Rafael Devers:
🏥His shoulder issues began in 2018
🏥It popped up again last year initially in late March
🏥Then again in mid April
🏥And again in early July
🏥And again in late August
🏥And yet again in late September🏥His…
— Less than Dave (@RunDMcD) March 5, 2025
Shortstop: None! Have a ball.
We won’t force an answer here, the market is solid. If I had to pick one, then it’s CJ Abrams.
Outfield: Ronald Acuna Jr. (ADP: 16)
Acuna has been one of the best players on the planet since debuting in 2018, but has only topped 120 games in a season twice. Even the 60-game COVID-19 year only saw him log 46 games thanks to wrist, hamstring, and ankle issues. He would tear his right ACL on July 10, 2021, while jumping for a fly ball in right field. After returning in late April of 2022, he had groin, quad, knee, foot, “lower body”, knee again, and back injuries.
Then the stars aligned in 2023 as the 27-year-old set an impossible standard with 41 home runs, 73 stolen bases, and a .337 batting average. Unfortunately, while recovering from a secondary lead on May 26, 2024, his left leg gave out, tearing that ACL in the process.
Much is being made about how this will affect his speed, with Acuna himself saying that he’ll be patient, focusing on the hitter and fielding. He was uncertain about how “to steal the 40 or 50 bags as easily.”
This has overshadowed that through 49 games and 222 plate appearances, Acuna had just four home runs and 15 RBI to go with a .250 batting average. His barrel rate sunk below 10 percent for the first time (previous low being 12.8 percent in ‘22). Was it rooted in the right meniscus irritation he reported at spring training? It’s problematic to lean on a guy who had a horrid power showing, won’t run as much, and may take more frequent days off.
“I’m just going to be a little more cautious and careful with it,” Acuña said. “If the team and the doctors tell me I'm ready to go and I go out there and I don't feel good, or something's bothering me, then I will say something.” Atlanta has playoff aspirations and will surely err on the side of caution with managing Acuna’s workload given how he’s speaking. It doesn’t help that Acuna only hit 15 HRs with 29 SBs and a .266 average over 119 games in 2022 coming off of the first ACL tear.
Early-Round Overvalued Players - Pitchers
Starting Pitcher #1: Corbin Burnes (ADP: 34, SP6)
Burnes is a known commodity who has felt like a lock-and-load SP1 and the ADP reflects that. But he’s seen some troubling trends kick up over the last few years. The 2021 breakout had an incredible 35.6 percent strikeout rate. The three years since have registered 30.5, 25.5, and 23.1 percent, in chronological order.
His ‘21 WHIP of 0.94 has slowly crept up as well (0.97, 1.07, and 1.10). This is not ideal stepping into an offensive park such as Chase Field amidst the N.L. West. You’ll never feel comfortable against the Dodgers, the Padres are no slouches, and Coors can turn any pitching line on its head.
Corbin Burnes vs. the Dodgers lifetime: 8 G, 6 GS, 5.40, .265/.331/.488. At Dodger Stadium: 0-3, 6.04, .269/.333/.527. At Chase Field: 2 G, 2 GS, 3.29, .208/.250/.313.
— Howard Cole (@Howard_Cole) December 28, 2024
Starting Pitcher #3: Aaron Nola (ADP: 75, SP19)
Nola is a workhorse and there’s value in availability but he’s another arm 30 or older flashing warning signs. His strikeout rate has decreased in four straight seasons since hitting a high-water mark during 2020’s shortened campaign. Last year was his first season with a K/9 below 9.0 (8.89) since an abbreviated rookie season in 2015. The two worst HR/9 marks of his career have come in the last two seasons (1.49 and 1.35).
His No. 4 and 5 pitches, the changeup and cutter, had expected batting averages of .340 and .342, respectively. This comes after none of his pitches had a mark above .285 in ‘23. The pitches also saw their whiff rates approximately halved. His curveball and four-seamer were strong and remain his backbone, but the sliding secondaries are not encouraging. We went from an electrifying 2022 Nola with a 2.58 FIP and 2.80 SIERA to him averaging a FIP around 4.00 and a SIERA near 3.70 over the last two years.
He hasn’t “crashed” so there’s been no reason for a massive ADP correction but a top-20 SP slot should bring either healthy ratios or Ks, not just health. Last year, Nola was the SP31 in Yahoo 5x5 scoring despite the 199 ⅓ IP. That’s a hefty premium for volume.
Relief Pitcher: Emmanuel Clase (ADP: 41. RP1)
Appearing in over 70 games for a fourth consecutive season, Clase set career-bests in saves (47), innings (74 ⅓ IP), ERA (0.61), and WHIP (0.66). There’s no denying his greatness, but everything rests on his ratios being beyond pristine again because his strikeout rate fell short of 25 percent for the second straight time.
Drafters can get hung up on his giving up eight runs in eight postseason innings, with three homers against, as reduced velocity led to louder contact against top competition. But those beautiful ratios were built on a .195 BABIP and 85.1 percent strand rate. Respectively, those are 53 points lower and 12.5 percentage points higher than his career norms.
You might say that Clase also had respective 1.29 and 1.36 ERAs in 2021 and ‘22, but he had over a strikeout per inning to lean on rather than putting it into the hands of the batted ball gods. His swinging-strike rate was 16.9 and 16.7 percent back then, but has been 13.4 and 13.6 in the previous two.
What if the Guardians ease back on the workload? What if the BABIP and strand rate figures bounce back to the other side of variance illustrated in 2023, when the .295 BABIP and 60.5 percent strand rate gave us a 3.22 ERA and 1.16 WHIP?
He should get a hefty amount of saves. This writer wants the bankable stat to be strikeouts, not ratios. This writer doesn’t want to be 30-40 Ks in the hole to the guy who takes Josh Hader and company after him, perhaps ruining my ratio edge by streaming to compensate. You can make it work but the build feels less flexible with a top investment in Clase’s profile.
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