Fantasy Baseball Breakout Hitters Watch and Underachievers, Overachievers (Week 12)

Jarod's fantasy baseball breakout hitters watch list, underachievers, and overachievers for Week 12 (2024), including hit streak leaders, ISO leaders, and more.

We're going to take our usual look around the league as we head into the weekend to see who is showing signs of some meaningful trends that can be revealing in some form or another. Perhaps a hitter is about to break out or on the verge of a cold spell.

Checking in on who's hot (or not) can bring to light some notable names. Those names then become potential waiver-wire targets or sneaky DFS plays (or avoids) until the rest of the fantasy community catches on.

Below, we'll check in on players with the longest hit streaks, highest batting average, and highest ISO over the last seven days, as well as some regression candidates and more. Note that totals are designated by the number in parentheses next to the player's name.

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Hit Streak Leader

(data through 6/6)   

Fernando Tatis Jr. (12)

Fernando Tatis Jr. extended his hit streak to 12 games after going 3-for-5 on Thursday. During the streak, he is 22-for-49 (.449) with three doubles and two home runs. The 25-year-old has also scored seven times and driven in six runs during the streak. On the season, he is now slashing .277/.352/.443 with a .351 wOBA and 134 wRC+.

Padres Fernando Tatis Jr. is now 8-8 in his last eight at-bats.

As of June 6th, he's posted a:

➡️ 139 wRC+ (6th among all MLB OFs)
➡️.358 wOBA (7th among all MLB OFs)
➡️ 2.0 fWAR (6th among all MLB OFs)

He’s going to be an NL All-Star… pic.twitter.com/Pa2VmE67Y9

— Clark Fahrenthold (@CFahrenthold11) June 7, 2024

Highest Batting Average Last Seven Days

(minimum 13 AB, games through 6/5) 

Check out the names on this list as there are some interesting ones for sure that could help in both season-long and DFS, but we'll discuss a couple names in depth below.

Andy Pages (.533)

Andy Pages was a waiver-wire darling earlier this season, even seeing his batting average hit .338 as recently as May 4, only to see it drop all the way to .225 on May 28. Since then, however, the 23-year-old has gone 11-for-26 (.423). Over the past week, the numbers look even better, hitting .533 and even taking fellow youngster Paul Skenes deep for his sole home run this past week. Pages will need to keep hitting in order to stay relevant for fantasy because he's not getting on base otherwise, as he's collected just five walks on the season compared to 51 strikeouts.

(Update: Pages picked up another hit on Thursday and surprisingly walked twice as well)

Daily Dingers - June 5th Edition

"Steer Clear of this Highlight Reel"

See Rafael Devers x2, Royce Lewis (again!), Andy Pages, Nolan Arenado, Luis Torrens x2, Julio Rodriguez, Shohei Ohtani, and of course, Spencer Steer pic.twitter.com/a5kUP4U12F

— pitchervbatter (@pitchervbatter) June 6, 2024

Spencer Steer (.440)

Spencer Steer was another hitter who began the year hot, even hitting two doubles, a triple, and three home runs in his first eight games. Over the next 47 games, however, Steer hit .178 with three home runs. The 26-year-old got hot again over the last five games, though, going 11-for-23 (.478) with four multi-hit performances.

On the season, the former third-round draft pick now has a .247-7-40-29-11 line with a .341 wOBA and 117 wRC+. Steer is on pace to set a new career high in stolen bases. If the power-speed combo isn't enough, he's eligible at 1B, 2B, 3B, and OF in Yahoo leagues.

(Update: Steer cooled off Thursday, going 0-for-4)

Highest ISO Last Seven Days

(minimum 13 AB, games through 6/5)

When it comes to fantasy, especially DFS, we want to see power. More big hits mean more points. Big hits usually drive in more runs, which means more points. Doubles and triples put hitters in a better position to score, which means? You guessed it -- more points! So, who's hitting for extra bases over the past week?

Aaron Judge (.714)

Aaron Judge has been crushing the ball over the last week if you hadn't heard, hitting for both power (.714 ISO) and average (.476). But it hasn't just been the past week. After seeing his average dip to .197 on May 2, Judge has gone 42-for-103 (.408) over the last 30 games, blasting 13 doubles and 15 home runs along the way. The surge has seen his BA rise to .293 and puts him as a top-five fantasy scorer thus far. There was never any doubt about whether or not you were starting him in season-long leagues even when he was struggling, but you should continue to feel confident about firing him up for DFS.

(Update: Judge went 0-for-3 with two walks Thursday)

13 homers in May
19 on the season (leads MLB)

Aaron Judge is on a tear! pic.twitter.com/2VbctfEWQM

— MLB (@MLB) June 1, 2024

Alex Bregman (.652)

I mentioned Alex Bregman in my article this past Sunday as a hitter who was hot and had some enticing matchups this week that could help keep the fire burning. So far he has, although he's dealing with a sore hand right now and was scratched from Wednesday's lineup. Over his last eight games, Bregman has a double, a triple, and five home runs. The two-time All-Star gets to face the trio of Griffin Canning, Tyler Anderson, and Patrick Sandoval this weekend, whom he has a combined career .417 average against with eight extra-base hits. Fire him up in DFS if he's playing.

Most Steals Last Seven Days

(data as of 6/5) 

Bryson Stott (4)

Bryson Stott is having a solid season so far, posting a .242-5-32-31-17 line but with just a .318 wOBA and 106 wRC+. With a high Contact% of 86.2%, low K% of 14.2%, and low BABIP (.259), Stott's BA feels low. I think he'll be able to get hot and get that wOBA up to a more respectable level. Even if he doesn't, the 12.4% BB% is going to continue to help him get on base and steal more bases. If he can log 640 plate appearances like last year, the left-handed hitter would be on pace to record 48 stolen bases this season, easily setting a new career high.

xSLG Underachievers

(data through 6/5, minimum 100 AB)

Below are hitters who have some of the biggest differences between their current slugging percentage and their expected slugging percentage, or xSLG. While many times this is a good exercise to see who is on the verge of turning things around, it's not certain. Sometimes hitters over or underperform their xSLG throughout their career, so regression to the xSLG may not happen.

Jesus Sanchez (.353 vs. .506)

Jesus Sanchez is coming off a year in which he slashed .253/.327/.450 with a .334 wOBA and 109 wRC+. The 26-year-old improved his K% substantially, increased his Contact%, is maintaining a solid 11.5% Barrel%, and has a hard-hit% of 51.9%, yet is posting similar or worse counting stats as compared to last season. Sanchez is due for some things breaking his way and some extra-base hits.

(Update: Sanchez went 1-for-3 with a double on Thursday)

Jesús Sánchez (1)

Opponent: Chicago Cubs
Pitcher: Kyle Hendricks
Date: 4/21/24

Exit Velocity: 113.6mph
Distance: 460ft
Launch Angle: 25° pic.twitter.com/qKv1LEUPXB

— Marlins Home Runs (@MarlinsHR) April 22, 2024

xSLG Overachievers

(data through 6/5, minimum 100 AB)

We'll touch on a hitter below who will eventually cool off. In this case, the SLG is much higher than the xSLG, and some regression should be expected. Note that the players who've shown up on this list so far this season have continued to hit well, so don't expect them to go ice-cold. Rather, it's usually more of a gradual decline.

Elias Diaz (.452 vs. .354)

Elias Diaz is a name we don't talk about much, but the 2023 All-Star is hitting .306 with a .452 SLG; however, his xSLG is almost 100 points lower at .354. He doesn't have a high strikeout rate (16.8%), but does have a low Contact% (73.7%) and chases a ton of pitches (40.1%), so it seems the high batting average and slugging percentage are due for a pullback. The 33-year-old's BABIP is elevated at .349, which could also indicate a slowdown, although he had a high BABIP last year as well at .324.

Highest wRC+ Versus LHP

(data through 6/5, minimum 30 PA)

Heliot Ramos (296)

You might not have been aware, but Heliot Ramos has been excellent versus left-handed pitching this season. In 31 plate appearances, the 24-year-old has gone 8-for-21 (.381) with two doubles, three home runs, and a 9:7 BB:K, giving him the highest wRC+ of any player versus LHP who has at least 30 plate appearances. Not only that, he's been good all around as long as he's been given the chance, slashing .304/.407/.511 with a .400 wOBA and 166 wRC+. Lately, he's been getting regular playing time, so managers in need of an outfielder can scoop him up in almost 85% of Yahoo leagues.

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