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Get locked in because we've got a lot to cover on this beautiful 15 game Friday. All teams taking the field will do so under the lights, meaning we've got our pick of literally any player - less time spent worrying about ownership percentages and more time to focus on combinations, stacks, avoids and which pitchers to load up on.
Before we get into stacks and player selections, let's take a look at a few Vegas lines. The heaviest favorites of the day - helpful when determining who to target for your cash game pitchers - are the Dodgers (-186), Nationals (-171), Red Sox (-165), and the Giants (-155). None of those are that dominant of a spread, but still worth keeping in mind. As for projected run totals, the Dodgers (5.6 runs) also top that list, followed by the Diamondbacks (5.2), Nationals (4.9), Rangers (4.9) and Red Sox (4.9). The Dodgers, of course, are throwing the game's best pitcher in Clayton Kershaw and happen to be playing at Coors today. There are no bigger boosts to a team's moneyline spread and run total projection, respectively, that Kershaw and Coors.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel on 5/12/17. The DFS lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options, and of course, value plays. Let's get to it, shall we?
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Offensive Stacks
Los Angeles Dodgers against Tyler Chatwood
This one is a bit obvious, but I still wanted to point it out anyway as Chatwood has major issues with the fly balls he allows to lefties leaving the yard, and the Dodgers are loaded with absolute stud left-handed hitters. If you're playing in cash, today is certainly not a day to fade Coors. The Dodgers are very reasonably priced and you could make a case for nearly any of their hitters in this order, 1-8. Chatwood has allowed more than two home runs per nine to lefties this year and right-handed batters have had success, too, posting a 1.64 HR/9 mark. The lefty studs I'm targeting most heavily in this lineup are Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson, Corey Seager and Chase Utley. Justin Turner and the switch-hitting Yasmani Grandal have excellent splits as well.
Miami Marlins against Mike Foltynewicz
This is a stack I think could fall a bit under the radar and since it isn't as much of a "sure thing" as a stack like, say, the Dodgers, it's best suited for large pool tournaments. Here's what I'm keying in on: Folty has been hit very hard his past few outings, allowing a hard hit rate north of 31% and average batted ball distance over 200 feet. Nothing to drool over, but noteworthy. What I happen to love, though, is that this Marlins lineup - currently projected for 4.5 runs - has a lot of power from the right side and that's what Folty struggles with the most.
Washington Nationals versus Nick Pivetta
I'm going to deviate off of my stat-split heavy stack suggestions and go with one that's based on Pivetta's Statcast data and the Nationals incredibly, incredibly talented offense. The Nats are both a deep threat and a threat to string together 5+ hits an inning to push across some runs- they can beat you in so many ways. Pivetta has really struggled this season, and I think Washington will take advantage - particularly their right-handed hitters like Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon and Ryan Zimmerman - of the 51% hard hit rate he's allowed in the last 15 days (highest on slate) and the average batted ball distance that is quite high at 256 feet (second highest number for Friday).
Also Consider: Arizona Diamondbacks versus Tyler Glasnow; Los Angeles Angels versus Jordan Zimmermann
FanDuel DFS Pitchers
Johnny Cueto - SP, vs CIN ($9,700)
Yes, I'm well aware Kershaw is on the this slate, but I also think Cueto is the safer play tonight with fairly similar upside (which is something I can rarely say for any pitcher in comparison to Kershaw). Cueto has been pretty fantastic and fairly consistent this season - save for two starts in the most unfriendly pitcher parks in the game - and he'll take on a high strikeout team tonight in his very pitcher-friendly home stadium in the Bay Area. As of this writing, the Giants are also the fourth highest favorites on the moneyline, meaning Vegas backers are with me on this one. Cueto's Statcast data for the year is also pleasant, seeing as he's allowed an average batted ball distance of just 189 feet, an exit velocity of just 89 miles per hour, and a ground-ball to fly-ball ratio of 62%.
Lance McCullers - SP, at NYY ($8,800)
McCullers is facing one of the best and certainly the hottest offenses in the league in a hitter's park. Now that the scary stuff is out of the way, here's why you should consider him in tournament formats only. First and foremost, McCullers strikeout numbers are fantastic this season, as he's posted a 11.6 K/9 and he's improved his ability to keep the ball in the yard (0.74 HR/9). The Yankees projected lineup - owners of a strong .327 wOBA split - also have a strikeout rate split near 26%. You have to take the risk with the reward in tournament formats, and thanks to his upside and a number of other similarly priced pitchers, I think he could go overlooked (giving you and me leverage) and deliver an 8+ strikeout performance. In addition that that upside, his Statcast data has been fantastic over his last three starts, allowing an average batted ball distance of just 181 feet and an exit velocity of 86 miles per hour.
Also Consider: Tanner Roark - SP, vs PHI ($8,600)
FanDuel DFS Infielders
Yasmani Grandal - C, at COL ($3,700)
All in all, this is a real cheap price for a catcher of Grandal's talents, especially when you consider this game is at Coors Field and the fact that Grandal matches up very well with Tyler Chatwood. On the season, Grandal has very strong splits against right-handed pitching - .364 wOBA, .274 ISO - and Chatwood has had trouble keeping the ball in the yard against left-handed hitting.
Also Consider: J.T. Realmuto - C, vs ATL ($2,700)
Edwin Encarnacion - 1B, vs MIN ($3,500)
There are a ton of first basemen I like today, but one that falls right in the mid-tier price range with a strong floor and excellent upside is Edwin Encarnacion. Edwing has a great spot in a strong order with lineup protection, very strong splits (.388 wOBA, .288 ISO) and matches up well with Ervin Santana. Santana has been much better than advertised this season, but his ISO allowed over his past three starts is .273.
Luis Valbuena - 1B, vs DET ($2,500)
If you can't squeeze in one of the top tier bats at first - or just want to save some cash and seek upside for tournaments - bat-flipping Luis Valbuena is your man tonight. Valbuena and his great power splits (.253 ISO, .523 slugging %) have massive home run upside and Jordan Zimmermann has allowed over a .300 ISO in the past 15 days.
Also Consider: Cody Bellinger - 1B, at COL ($4,000)
Ryan Schimpf - 2B, at CWS ($3,400)
Schimpf has been known to have an offensive explosion from time to time, and I think the stars (er, stats) have aligned for him to repeat tonight. It's no secret that he absolutely crushes right-handed pitching - .372 wOBA and a .318 ISO - and today he faces a pretty weak right-hander in Miguel Gonzalez in a park that is a major upgrade for Schimpf and his Padres teammates.
Also Consider: Yangervis Solarte - 2B, at CWS ($2,900)
Jake Lamb - 3B, vs PIT ($3,500)
Lamb has been slumping a little bit, but he's still a monster against right-handed pitching. Thus far, he's the owner of a .373 wOBA and .290 ISO split. Despite the slump, he's still underpriced here, seeing as this game is in the ultra-home-run-friendly Chase Field, and his opponent, Tyler Glasnow, has allowed over a .350 wOBA and .200 ISO over the past three starts.
Also Consider: Justin Turner,3B, at COL ($4,200)
Trea Turner - SS, vs PHI ($3,700)
Turner is a beast of a right-hander and my favorite (well, actually a tie with Ryan Zimmerman) right-handed National for tonight's contests. He has great lineup order value, a high floor and a high ceiling. His splits have been fantastic this year with a .400 wOBA and a .232 ISO power.
Also Consider: Tim Beckham - SS, at BOS ($2,900)
FanDuel DFS Outfielders
JD Martinez - OF, at LAA ($3,500)
Maybe I'm jumping the gun on Martinez, seeing as he was just activated today, but I think this is too good a spot to chance in tournaments if he's in the order tonight. He has been stroking the ball well in AAA ball on his rehab assignment, and tonight he's priced fairly cheap and gets a matchup with a pitcher, Matt Shoemaker, that has a 50% fly-ball rate and allows 2.11 HR/9 to right-handed hitters. These date back to last year, of course, but Martinez loves a righty-righty matchup, as showcased by his .443 wOBA and .282 ISO splits.
Christian Yelich - OF, vs ATL ($3,400)
I mentioned the power-hitting right-handed Miami batters in the tournament stack I suggested, but Yelich is a great play as well and could serve as a stand-alone Miami pick if you choose not to stack or just want to play in cash. Yelich has always displayed a high floor with his great wOBA splits, and he's added more power to his game this season, showcased by an ISO split that is now north of .200 at .206.
Jose Osuna - OF, at ARI ($2,400)
Osuna is my low price, potentially high value plug of the night. For near the minimum price, you're getting a powerful outfielder who gets a major park upgrade tonight and faces the struggling Patrick Corbin. For the year, Osuna boasts a very impressive ISO split of ,261.
Also Consider: Joc Pederson - OF, at COL ($3,600)
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