Overvalued/Undervalued Draft Picks for ESPN Fantasy Football Leagues - Saquon Barkley, Joe Burrow, J.K. Dobbins, Jerry Jeudy, and more

July 23, 2022

Tommy analyzes fantasy football players who may be overvalued or undervalued for ESPN drafts. These are fantasy football sleepers and busts for ESPN leagues.

Fantasy football drafts can be lost by investing in a player earlier than you should have, but they can also be won by drafting a player that is falling way too far down draft boards.

This article will take a look at the ESPN average draft position (ADP) variations compared to other fantasy sites such as Yahoo, Sleeper, NFFC, Fantrax, and RTSports.

We will look at the fantasy football players who are being overvalued and undervalued relative to their ADP on the ESPN platform. If you are drafting in an ESPN league, use this guide to find advantages over your league-mates.

Undervalued ESPN Fantasy Football Draft Picks

Saquon Barkley, New York Giants, RB16 ADP

Barkley is coming off a lackluster season which saw him finish as the RB30 while playing in just 13 games.

When you consider all that Barkley had to overcome in 2021, it shouldn't be a surprise that he set a career-low in carries (162), rushing yards (593), receptions (41), receiving yards (263), and total touchdowns (four) if you disregard the 2020 season in which he suited up for just two games.

Prior to the 2021 season, Barkley was only one year removed from his ACL tear, yet was drafted in the middle of the first round of fantasy drafts. This, along with the Giants having the 30th ranked offensive line, per PFF, while scoring the fewest touchdowns and having one of the worst coaching staffs in the NFL, was a recipe for disaster from the beginning.

Now, one of the best running back prospects of all time looks like a tremendous value in 2022 fantasy football. The 25-year-old is now two years removed from his injury, with an upgraded offensive line, and a coaching staff that hopes to get all that they can out of their star running back.

Yet, he is being drafted as the RB16 (29th overall) on ESPN. Across all platforms, Barkley goes off the board on average as the RB13 (22nd overall), with his highest ADP being the RB11 on Sleeper. That is behind players like Javonte Williams and Nick Chubb, both of which have another proven running back that will take away  opportunity from them.

On the other hand, Barkley has a backfield to himself, and a head coach that would like to use the dual-threat in a similar fashion to his rookie season all the way back in 2018, when Barkley caught 91 passes and rushed for 1,307 yards.

The notion that Barkley is no longer the same player that he was in his rookie season might be true, but his talent and capability are being discredited at his current RB16 price tag.

In Week 3 and Week 4 of the 2021 season, he posted 94 total yards and a touchdown, followed up by a 126 total yard and two score performance. Just when it looked like he started to settle in after being limited to start the season, Barkley stepped on a defender's foot after the play and suffered an ankle sprain in Week 5 against the Dallas Cowboys.

Barkley’s “injury prone” tag is baked into his current ADP on ESPN, but a fluke ankle injury that is fully recovered should not be a reason to fade one of the most talented backs in football. The same managers who faded Dalvin Cook in 2019 and Joe Mixon in 2021 will be making the same mistake in 2022 by passing on Barkley.

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals, QB10 ADP

Burrow has the most surprising ADP variation among quarterbacks on the ESPN platform, as he is going off the board as the QB10 (73rd overall) compared to his QB6 ADP (61st overall) across the rest of the five sites.

The former LSU collegiate star is going as high as QB5 on Yahoo and Sleeper, so he is an absolute steal as the QB10. That means players like Aaron Rodgers, Dak Prescott, and Tom Brady are being drafted ahead of Burrow when all three are going behind him on the rest of fantasy platforms.

In his sophomore season, the 25-year-old had the fifth-most fantasy points at the position through 17 weeks (QB9 in ppg) and is going into an even better situation as he enters his third season in the NFL.

With an upgraded offensive line, Burrow should have more time to throw which will help the Bengals increase their passing attempts per game, as they ranked in the bottom half of the league at 17th in 2021. Despite this, Burrow was able to finish with the sixth-most passing yards (4,611) and eighth-most passing touchdowns (34).

Ranking first in yards per attempt last season, an increase in passing volume gives the young quarterback a very high ceiling with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins at his disposal. Burrow’s situation is only getting better, yet the three quarterbacks going ahead of him mentioned above seem to be in situations that are getting worse.

Rodgers lost his All-Pro wide receiver Davante Adams and could be transitioning into a run-heavy offense with a lack of receiver depth. Prescott lost La’el Collins and Connor Williams on his offensive line, while his No.1 wide receiver Amari Cooper departed for the Cleveland Browns.

Brady will likely be without Chris Godwin to start the season and lost Rob Gronkowski to his second retirement announcement. It is hard to envision any of these three options finishing ahead of Burrow, and that is apparent through his ADP on the other platforms besides ESPN.

He is now two years removed from his ACL injury, with a significantly-improved offensive line, and the best wide receiver duo in the league. His ADP on ESPN should correct itself to be higher than Rodgers, Prescott, and Brady.

AJ Dillon, Green Bay Packers, RB32 ADP

No pair of RB teammates have each rushed for 1,000 yards in the same season since 2009. Can Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon be the first in over a decade? https://t.co/atc5dDAQVQ

— The Packers Wire (@ThePackersWire) July 21, 2022

Dillon is being drafted as the RB32 on EPSN (91st overall) compared to the RB27 (63rd overall) across the five other sites, which is the most significant difference in terms of overall draft position on this entire list.

Dillon is going behind players such as Tony Pollard, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and Kareem Hunt on ESPN, but has a higher ADP than all of these running backs among the other sites. All of which will likely be playing less of a role than the 6-foot, 247-pound Dillon.

There have been reports that Dillon and Aaron Jones could be a “50-50 split” backfield this season, and that is not necessarily hard to believe considering how talented the two are.

With Adams departed for Las Vegas, Jones could be used in more of a receiving role while Dillon handles more of the ball-carrying, short-yardage situations, and goal line duties. In 2021, Dillon carried the ball 187 times for 803 yards and caught 34 passes for 313 yards while scoring seven total touchdowns.

The Packers ranked 15th in team run plays per game (26.1) last season, so it is hard to envision them falling any lower into the second half of the league. This is considering their lack of weaponry at the wide receiver position, not to mention that their offensive line should be healthier going into next season.

Dillon and Jones basically split work in the red zone, as Jones saw the ninth-most red zone touches with 47 (six goal-line), while Dillon handled the 12th-most with 46 (six goal-line). When you consider that their roles could look a little different this season, there is seemingly a higher touchdown ceiling for Dillon.

Not to mention, Rodgers finished with the third-most red zone passing attempts, which could regress considering their biggest red-zone passing threat is no longer on the team.

A talented running back that will see over 200 touches once again in a good offense has no reason to be going as the RB32 and 91st overall on ESPN. After finishing as the RB29 in fantasy points per game last year, Dillon’s role is only going to grow, so his ADP should do a better job of reflecting this.

Overvalued ESPN Fantasy Football Draft Picks

J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens, RB19 ADP

Dobbins is a tremendous talent and was one of my favorite running back prospects coming out of Ohio State, but after a devastating ACL tear during the 2021 preseason, his price tag is a bit too high at RB19 on ESPN, compared to his average price of RB22 across all platforms.

In half and full-PPR scoring, there are a few better options that are being drafted later. Antonio Gibson (RB22) and Travis Etienne Jr. (RB23) are currently being drafted after Dobbins on the ESPN platform. However, Gibson and Etienne are going ahead of the Baltimore lead back across the rest of the fantasy platforms.

Gibson is going as the RB20, while Etienne has a higher ADP than Dobbins on Yahoo, Sleeper, FFC, and RTSports. Overall, Dobbins is the 41st player off the board on EPSN compared to 49th among others.

His injury was more than just an ACL tear, as there was damage to the meniscus and LCL as well. Although Dobbins believes he will be ready for Week 1, he is no sure thing to be fully unleashed in the run-heavy Ravens offense.

Running backs coming back one year after their ACL tear isn't very encouraging, as we have seen tremendous talents like Dalvin Cook (2018) and Saquon Barkley (2021) take time to get their feet underneath them in their return to action.

Gus Edwards, who is also coming off an ACL tear, should be back healthy. Not to mention, the Ravens added Mike Davis as some insurance for their two injured running backs and drafted Tyler Badie in the sixth round of the 2022 NFL Draft. Let’s not forget the best rushing quarterback in the league is in the fold as well.

Dobbins finished his rookie season with 134 carries for 805 yards (6.0 ypc) and added just 18 receptions for 120 yards and nine total touchdowns. Despite a ton of efficiency, which is likely unsustainable, Dobbins finished as the RB29 in PPR points per game, although he had a limited workload to start the season.

With such a crowded backfield and the fact that he will likely be eased back into his workload, we could see a season reminiscent of his rookie year in terms of production.

Even if Dobbins handles 185 carries and averages 5.0 ypc, which could be wishful thinking, his limited involvement in the passing game is what really hurts his value.

He would need an astronomical touchdown rate to support an RB19 price tag. With Lamar Jackson, Edwards, Davis, and Badie all in the mix, it is hard to see Dobbins being among the league’s best in terms of touchdown production.

Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins, WR13 ADP

After setting an NFL record for most receptions by a rookie with 104, Waddle looked to be on the verge of fantasy stardom going into his sophomore season. That was until Tyreek Hill was acquired via trade, knocking Waddle down to WR2 on the depth chart.

With Hill going as the WR7 (15th overall) and Waddle as the WR13 (34th overall) on ESPN, do we really think Tua Tagovailoa will be able to support two high-end wide receivers? If so, why is he being drafted as the QB16? Paying up for Waddle as the WR13 (WR15 average across all platforms) is a hefty price to find out if it is possible.

He is currently being drafted over Michael Pittman Jr. (WR16) on ESPN; however, Pittman is going higher on average than Waddle on the rest of the fantasy platforms.

This is something that should likely be corrected in terms of ESPN ADP, as Pittman is the unquestioned WR1 who received a quarterback upgrade this offseason. Not to mention, he likely has a safer floor and seemingly a higher ceiling. Waddle being the 34th player off the board should likely recorrect to the 41st overall range that he is going among other sites.

It took the speedster 142 targets to finish as the WR14 in 2021, as he was used mostly as a short-yardage receiver, despite averaging 18.8 yards per catch in his final year at Alabama.

It is hard to envision the Dolphins’ offense not taking a step forward from last year, as an improved offensive line should give Tagovailoa enough time to take some deep shots down the field to his speedy wideouts.

Head coach Mike McDaniel prides himself on getting the ball into the hands of his playmakers, so Hill and Waddle will likely be leaned on quite a bit this season. However, with an unproven quarterback under center, it sounds like a tall task for Hill and Waddle to both produce borderline WR1 numbers in fantasy.

After averaging 9.8 yards per catch and just 10 deep targets all season, we will need to see Waddle’s usage change if he is going to be playing as the second option behind Hill. Yes, he finished with the 10th-most yards after the catch in the league last season, but it is hard to see him catching 100+ passes again, and it is even harder to imagine that he will be seeing the 140+ targets he commanded.

Waddle will need to see a bump in efficiency if he regresses to the 120+ target range, which is a pretty fair projection when you consider the type of role a player as talented as Hill will play.

Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos, WR23 ADP

Jeudy is a talented player who is getting a QB upgrade, which makes it understandable why his ADP is shooting up. However, a WR23 (55th overall) price tag on EPSN compared to WR28 (65th overall) among the other platforms is a bit too much of a difference in value.

When you consider he is going ahead of Allen Robinson II and Darnell Mooney, who have far less competition for targets, as well as his teammate Courtland Sutton, who’s play-style likely better aligns with Russell Wilson’s, Jeudy’s price may be one that is not worth paying.

Analyzing his first two seasons in the league when he had Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater throwing him the ball may not mean much now that Wilson will be throwing him passes, but there are still some concerns considering he's being drafted as a WR2 on ESPN.

The first red flag is that Jeudy has scored just three touchdowns in 26 games through his first two seasons in the NFL. This could be due to poor quarterback play holding him back, but when you consider that Sutton is a big red zone target, it is hard to imagine Jeudy finds that much touchdown production in an offense that is loaded with talent.

Let’s not forget Tim Patrick, KJ Hamler, and Albert Okwuegbunam will get theirs, while the running back duo of Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon III combined for 17 total touchdowns in 2021.

Jeudy could very well take a backseat to Sutton when you consider the way that Wilson likes to run an offense. Sutton had an average depth of target (aDOT) of 15.7 last year (second-highest), while Jeudy’s was just 10.5 (53rd-highest).

Wilson had the highest air yards per attempt last season, so it seems like there is evidence he will be gravitating to his big target that gets down the field. S

utton is being drafted higher than Jeudy on average from the other sites we are comparing, and there seems to be a good reason for it. Jeudy’s ESPN ADP seems inflated and he should likely fall closer to the WR28 range in drafts.

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