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Jamie Steed previews EPL Matchday 17 of the 2024-25 season, starting on 12/21/2024. He previews each game from the English Premier League; picking bets and providing predictions for each game.
The EPL season rolls on and we're bringing you our weekly article looking at betting picks and predictions for all games. Matchday 17 kicks off on Saturday, December 21, with Manchester City visiting Aston Villa. It culminates on Sunday, December 22, when Tottenham Hotspur hosts Liverpool.
Every week, we'll offer a preview of all the games. We'll predict the outcome, give a score prediction, and pick our favorite play for all fixtures. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
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Matchday 16 Recap
Not a vintage week for us last weekend. Arsenal, Liverpool, and Manchester City all failing to win scuppered a lot of parlays. It was a weekend that ultimately proved costly for Russell Martin and Gary O'Neil. Both managers lost their jobs after damaging defeats.
We head into the congested festive fixtures with many teams carrying question marks over their form. Further reason to tread carefully over the next couple of matchdays.
Saturday, December 21, 2024
Aston Villa (+235) vs. Manchester City (+110) - 7:30 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Aston Villa 2 – 1 Manchester City
City's derby day defeat means it has won just once in its last 11 games in all competitions. Villa's form hasn't been great but it came close to making it three consecutive wins last Saturday. Its late collapse at Forest shouldn't detract from Villa being too high-priced to beat a woefully out-of-form City.
Brentford (+130) vs. Nottingham Forest (+210) - 10:00 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Brentford 3 – 1 Nottingham Forest
Brentford's home and away form is "night and day." While it only has taken one point on its travels, its home form has been excellent. This will be its biggest test at home of the season but one it should be able to navigate. An average of five goals per home game makes the "over" a play.
NO team in Europe's Top 5 leagues is cooking up more goals at home than @BrentfordFC 🔥🐝 pic.twitter.com/vM8Bo2ktft
— Premier League USA (@PLinUSA) December 9, 2024
Ipswich Town (+340) vs. Newcastle United (-140) - 10:00 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Ipswich Town 1 – 3 Newcastle United
Ipswich has yet to win at home and no team has scored fewer goals in home games than the Tractor Boys (six). Newcastle followed its 4-0 win last weekend with a 3-1 victory in the League Cup quarterfinal. The visitors should be able to use that momentum and pick up the win here.
West Ham United (+185) vs. Brighton (+135) - 10:00 a.m. EST
Score prediction: West Ham United 1 – 1 Brighton
West Ham has only lost one of its last five home games. Both teams have scored in six of their eight games at the London Stadium. Brighton has scored in all eight of its away games and kept just two clean sheets on the road. Both teams to score looks like the best play in this game.
Crystal Palace (+450) vs. Arsenal (-160) - 12:30 p.m. EST
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1 – 2 Arsenal
Three days after playing out an entertaining League Cup quarterfinal, the two London clubs meet again. Palace has the advantage of being at home this time but it will be a much-changed Arsenal starting XI for this game. We'll take over 2.5 total goals following Wednesday's action.
Booking our semi-final spot 🎟️
Check out the highlights from tonight's 3-2 victory over Crystal Palace 📺 pic.twitter.com/U2gc84DuwB
— Arsenal (@Arsenal) December 19, 2024
Sunday, December 22, 2024
Everton (+425) vs. Chelsea (-160) - 9:00 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Everton 0 – 2 Chelsea
Everton picked up a credible point at Arsenal last week. But scoring goals continues to be a struggle for the Toffees. It was the fifth time in their last six games in which Everton failed to score. We'll take an away win and play both teams to not score in this one.
Arsenal conceded 0.00(xGOT) against Everton this afternoon.
— The xG Philosophy (@xGPhilosophy) December 14, 2024
Fulham (-245) vs. Southampton (+600) - 9:00 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Fulham 3 – 0 Southampton
Southampton has yet to replace Russell Martin. It will likely take a lot more than a new man at the helm to change its fortunes. We won't do anything wild and just play a home win with at least three goals in the match. Both teams to score is in play but providing Fulham wins, the over will still hit in that situation.
Leicester City (+150) vs. Wolves (+170) - 9:00 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Leicester City 2 – 1 Wolves
Leicester's "new manager bounce" came to an end last weekend. Wolves will be hoping to get it after replacing Gary O'Neil. It might be too early for new Wolves manager Vitor Pereira to get it back to winning ways. We'll play both the goal markets given Wolves' leaky defense.
Portuguese manager Vitor Pereira replaces Gary O'Neil at Wolves on an 18-month contract pic.twitter.com/vbNCCi3iP8
— Premier League (@premierleague) December 19, 2024
Manchester United (-120) vs. Bournemouth (+300) - 9:00 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Manchester United 1 – 1 Bournemouth
United's comeback win at rival Manchester City last week will live long in memory. However, it was very poor for much of that game. Bournemouth is unbeaten in its last four games and has the tools to trouble United. Even if it fails to win, both teams to score looks most likely.
Tottenham Hotspur (+300) vs. Liverpool (-135) - 11:30 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Tottenham Hotspur 2 – 3 Liverpool
Historically, this has been one of the most high-scoring games in EPL history. Tottenham's eight home games have seen a total of 31 goals. Liverpool's seven away games have totaled 24 goals. We'll be backing both teams to score and at least three total goals to round off the week.
Betting Picks
The table below gives the odds for each game's three main plays (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score). My favorite pick from each game is highlighted if you are looking to build a parlay (which I will be playing and tracking).
| Game | Moneyline | Over/Under 2.5 goals | BTTS |
| A. Villa 2 – 1 Man City | A. Villa +235 | Over 2.5 -170 | Yes -200 |
| Brentford 3 – 1 N. Forest | Brentford +130 | Over 2.5 -140 | Yes -185 |
| Ipswich 1 – 3 Newcastle | Newcastle -140 | Over 2.5 -165 | Yes -170 |
| West Ham 1 – 1 Brighton | Draw +270 | Under 2.5 +145 | Yes -220 |
| C. Palace 1 – 2 Arsenal | Arsenal -160 | Over 2.5 -125 | Yes -125 |
| Everton 0 – 2 Chelsea | Chelsea -160 | Under 2.5 +125 | No +125 |
| Fulham 3 – 0 Southampton | Fulham -245 | Over 2.5 -185 | No +110 |
| Leicester 2 – 1 Wolves | Leicester +150 | Over 2.5 -155 | Yes -190 |
| Man United 1 – 1 Bournemouth | Draw +300 | Under 2.5 +135 | Yes -185 |
| Tottenham 2 – 3 Liverpool | Liverpool -135 | Over 2.5 -340 | Yes -320 |
| Season totals | 70/159 | 74/159 | 90/159 |
| Season parlays | 1/15 (-3.53u) | 0/16 (-16.00u) | 6/16 (+28.05u) |
Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!
