Dynasty Value of the 2021 Rookie Quarterbacks

Chris Gregory looks at the dynasty value of rookie quarterbacks for the 2021 fantasy football season and ranks his top 10.

Not in recent memory have we seen a team bluff and fake-out the media and general public like the San Francisco 49ers just did when they convinced most that they prized the plus-sized Winklevoss cousin known as Mac Jones at pick #3. They didn't take Jones, though, and they blew up many mock drafts in the process. Instead, the 49ers went with upside, just like many fantasy managers would, and they altered the future of multiple fantasy-relevant passers in the process.

The first impact of San Francisco’s choice on your fantasy teams was obvious: Trey Lance landed in the golden seat where he will be groomed to take over an elite offense in the Bay. The secondary impact of that move was that the public’s second-favorite QB in this class (Justin Fields) started to fall, tumbling outside of the top-10 picks and landing in the laps of a Chicago Bears team that no one thought could get him. Meanwhile, the draft’s least popular passer (Jones) amongst fans went to one of the NFL’s least popular teams (the Patriots) in a predictable yet fateful sort of way. It was a dramatic series of events that changed the future of several NFL teams and your fantasy lineups as well.

So with all of this turnover, it's natural for people to wonder what to make of this truly talented quarterback class. Where should you take these passers in dynasty, and who should you pass on? Below, we will give you an exhaustive list and detailed answers to these questions and more.

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1. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

While Trevor Lawrence is clearly the most valuable pro prospect to come out of the NFL Draft in nearly a decade, there is still debate about whether he is the most valuable fantasy passer in his own draft class. Two camps argue against Lawrence being the top rookie passer in dynasty this year, and they have two distinct arguments.

One of those camps argues that Justin Fields is the top rookie passer in dynasty, largely because he sports the best immediate upside. The Ohio State product has the best speed, the best WR1, and the best early 2021 rushing upside in this rookie quarterback class. So, you should prioritize him because he will help you now.

The other anti-Lawrence camp says Trey Lance should actually be the top-overall rookie passer in dynasty because he boasts the most future upside. Lance has scary physical potential, and his supporting cast in San Francisco is easily the best of any rookie quarterback in recent memory. So, Lance should be the top dynasty pick, even if he doesn’t play in 2021.

While it’s true Lance and Fields both have the talent to become this year’s top rookie passer, they each carry inherent risks that Lawrence does not. As a pro prospect, Lawrence is as perfect and safe as it gets. He sported one of the best interception rates (2.2% interception rate) we have ever seen from such an aggressive college passer (9.8 Air Yards per Attempt), and he adds value with his legs as well. Nothing about his film suggests he will be anything but a top-10 passer in the NFL, and soon. That’s a level of safety you don’t get in Fields or Lance.

Rookie QB Rank: QB1 (Unless you can afford to let Lance sit for years)

Overall Dynasty QB Rank: QB7

Upside Comparison: John Elway with a little less torque

2. Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers

There are several reasons why Lance is ranked ahead of bigger and more popular names on this list. One of those reasons is his elite physical and mental upside. The North Dakota State product has a massive arm, an underrated understanding of the game, an imposing running style, and a big frame that can take a beating and keep kicking. An honest evaluation of his film will tell you that Lance matches or bests both Fields and Zach Wilson in pretty much every valuable quarterback skill there is, except for intermediate ball placement.

Lance’s fantasy upside isn’t just about his physical profile, though. As we noted in the Trevor Lawrence section above, Lance will have an elite offense in San Francisco. No other passer in this class can match the variety of young weapons and the creative play-calling Lance will have in San Francisco whenever he does start.

Put Lance’s physical potential together with his elite weapons and coaching, and it makes for a fantasy football monster worthy of being the second rookie quarterback taken in dynasty drafts. If you are well-set at quarterback and can afford the risk, he may even be worth taking first overall in certain Superflex formats.

Rookie QB Rank: QB2

Overall Dynasty QB Rank: QB12

Upside Comparison: Steve Young on steroids

3. Justin Fields, Chicago Bears

While many Fields fans will take exception with their guy falling this far in our dynasty rankings, it’s important to note that we like Fields quite a bit. The Ohio State product simply carries more fantasy-relevant question marks than the two players ahead of him here.

One of the primary concerns fantasy managers should have about making Fields the first quarterback off the board in dynasty drafts is his questionable coaching staff. Bears head coach Matt Nagy has already struggled to develop one highly drafted quarterback (Mitchell Trubisky), and he didn't do much with a Super Bowl MVP either. In fact, Nagy’s offenses haven’t finished better than 22nd in scoring or 26th in total yards over the past two seasons. That’s a concern when you consider that Kyle Shanahan’s 49er offenses have never finished lower than 21st in scoring or 15th in total yards, even when Nick Mullens and C.J. Beathard were his primary starters.

Another concern fans should have about Fields’ early career outlook is the state of his offensive line. The Bears released two of their best pass-blocking offensive linemen this offseason, and they now project to start just one lineman with a positive pass-blocking grade (according to Pro Football Focus) last season. While rookie left tackle Teven Jenkins could step up and improve that situation, there are multiple concerns about the health and performance on Chicago’s line.

Finally, fans should be careful not to overestimate the weapons Fields will have just because Allen Robinson is still a Bear. Remember that Robinson has had issues with this front office, and he's playing on a one-year franchise tag. If Robinson were to leave or go down, it would leave Fields with two injured or inconsistent running backs (Tarik Cohen & David Montgomery), a receiver on the trade block (Anthony Miller), and two still developing mid-round selections from last year ( Cole Kmet and Darnell Mooney). That’s a concern for a team with no cap space this year and no first-round pick next.

Given these issues standing in the way of a Fields breakout in 2021, we have to drop the Ohio State product to third on our list. As we've said already, Lawrence is simply safer while Lance carries more upside.

Rookie QB Rank: QB3

Overall Dynasty QB Rank: QB14

Upside Comparison: Deshaun Watson

4. Zach Wilson, New York Jets

As we addressed in an article earlier this offseason, Wilson is considered a fantasy risk because he is joining a long-defunct Jets organization with an unimpressive offensive roster. The Jets have had one of the least talented lineups in the NFL for years now, and that’s still the case even after a couple of solid drafts by GM Joe Douglas.

Now, there is some hope for Jets fans and Wilson investors. The Jets have hired a good GM (Douglas) and a great leader of men in head coach Robert Saleh. They’ve also added some solid talent in the past two drafts in Mekhi Becton, Denzel Mims, Elijah Moore, and Alijah Vera-Tucker. Those additions aren't nearly enough to secure Wilson’s fantasy value, however. This team still lacks an established #1 receiver, a clear workhorse back, a threat at tight end, and the right side of their line is problematic. No other rookie passer in this class faces that many holes on his roster, nor do they have Woody Johnson as an owner.

The Jets aren’t the only thing holding back Wilson’s fantasy value, though. There is also a significant concern about his health and durability.  The BYU product has had shoulder surgery in the past, and that procedure impacted his play in 2019. Considering his aggressive and uncompromising running style, Wilson's history of shoulder injuries would hurt his dynasty value even if the Jets could offer him a better roster than they are.

Rookie QB Rank: QB4

Overall Dynasty QB Rank: QB16

Upside Comparison: Randall Cunningham

5. Mac Jones, New England Patriots

To put it simply… the chubby Winklevoss cousin (Mac Jones) was never going to be anything more than a fantasy QB2, even if he had landed in San Francisco. The lack of production he adds with his legs makes it virtually impossible for him to be a top-10 fantasy quarterback in today’s game unless he becomes the next Drew Brees AND the Patriots give him elite weapons. The likelihood of either of those things happening is low, especially considering Bill Belichick’s hesitancy to draft receivers early.

Fantasy managers must also seriously consider whether Jones’s style of play truly meshes with the weapons he will have in New England. After all, his biggest skill is his ability to lead receivers into major yards after the catch (YAC). The problem with that is the only guy on this roster with consistent YAC production is a tight end (Jonnu Smith), and there's not a single pass-catcher on the team with a 1,000 receiving yard season under his belt. That should concern fantasy managers who are investing a first-round dynasty pick in Jones.

While Jones does have the potential to grow into a valuable QB2 in Superflex leagues, his potential will always be limited. That's why you should consider taking the dynasty draft pick you were going to use on Jones and trading it for Tom Brady and a second-round pick (which you can use on Kyle Trask). The combo of Brady and Trask is likely to return more value than Jones will.

Rookie QB Rank: QB5

Overall Dynasty QB Rank: QB25

Downside Comparison: Josh Rosen

6. Kyle Trask, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Imagine this very probable scenario: Tom Brady plays two more seasons before retiring at 46 in 2023. At that time, the deceptively mobile and accurate Kyle Trask steps in as the starter after learning behind the GOAT for two seasons. What do you think that would look like for fantasy purposes?

In 2023, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ best offensive lineman (Tristan Wirfs) will be turning 24 years old. The team’s top two pass catchers (Mike Evans and Chris Godwin) and many of their best defenders (Carlton Davis, Antoine Winfield Jr., Devin White, etc.) will also still be in their 20s. If Trask can play with that type of talent for the first five years of his career, you have to like his odds of becoming a fantasy QB2 and returning major value on the late-second round dynasty pick it might cost you to get him in Superflex drafts.

Rookie QB Rank: QB6

Overall Dynasty QB Rank: QB27

Upside Comparison: Alex Smith

7. Davis Mills, Houston Texans

Mills is an intriguing prospect with a better arm than Mac Jones and the same level of anticipation and understanding. As a prospect, the hang-up with Mills was always his combination of inexperience (11 starts in college) and injury history. Those remain real concerns, especially when Mills could find himself starting as a rookie for a very untalented Houston Texans team.

Mills investors must hope Deshaun Watson or Tyrod Taylor start the entire 2021 season, giving the rookie time to learn. If the Stanford product is forced to play early, odds are he will take a career-breaking beating just like David Carr did before him. If you’re investing the third-round dynasty pick it takes to get Mills in Superflex leagues right now, you’re hoping you won’t see him play for at least two years. If that’s the case, he could pay off.

Rookie QB Rank: QB7

Overall Dynasty QB Rank: QB28

Downside Comparison: David Carr

8. Kellen Mond, Minnesota Vikings

While players like Kyle Trask, Davis Mills, and Mac Jones all have somewhat defined roles on their teams as future starters, the same cannot be said of Mond. Current Vikings starter Kirk Cousins turns 33 at the start of this season, and there is good reason to believe he might remain Minnesota’s starter through the end of Mond’s rookie contract. If that were to happen,  fantasy managers would be carrying Mond on their dynasty roster for four years without seeing much production in return.

If management were to announce Mond as the ‘future of Minnesota’, or if he were given a shot to unseat Cousins someday soon, the Texas A&M product’s fantasy value would obviously go up. He has the mobility and arm strength to produce QB2 numbers in the right situation. However, the lack of answers we have about Mond’s role or purpose in Minnesota, coupled with the 46 games of inconsistent college film, make him a relatively risky dynasty investment right now. Those in Superflex leagues should feel comfortable investing a third-round choice on Mond, but anything more is probably too risky.

Rookie QB Rank: QB8

Overall Dynasty QB Rank: QB32

Downside Comparison: Brett Hundley

9. Jamie Newman, Philadelphia Eagles

Newman was one of the better Undrafted Free Agent signings of this class. Some projected him as a late-third or early-fourth-round pick, but he fell out of the draft because of concerns surrounding his decision to transfer to Georgia and then opt-out. There are reasons to like Newman more than several noteworthy passers in this class, though.

The primary reason to like Newman as a fantasy bargain is that he plays behind Jalen Hurts, an inaccurate quarterback whose tendency is to run first and risk injury. If Hurts were to get hurt this year, Newman might be the guy they put on the field instead of Joe Flacco. The Wake Forest rookie can better emulate what Hurts does on the field than Flacco can, so why wouldn’t the rebuilding Eagles give Newman a shot if their starter is down and out? And, Newman is the kind of guy who can take advantage of that kind of opportunity, too. He is a decent passer, and he's mobile enough to produce low-end QB2 numbers if all goes right.

Rookie QB Rank: QB9

Overall Dynasty QB Rank: QB34

Upside Comparison: Aaron Brooks

Others Receiving Notes: There aren't any other rookie passers in this class worth rostering in dynasty right now. You can invest in Ian Book, Sam Ehlinger, or Feleipe Franks as flyers, but they aren't worth getting excited over. Book in particular profiles as a backup at best… of course, that's what they also said about Tom Brady, isn't it?

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