RADIO
Dynasty league impact and fallout from RB Jay Ajayi's trade to the Philadelphia Eagles. Kyle Richardson breaks down the running back's dynasty value.
The trade deadline this year brought an unusual amount of action. Not only was there a lot of movement, but some big names were moved as well. Of all the players who changed teams this week, Jay Ajayi had to be the most significant to fantasy owners. The NFL-leading Philadelphia Eagles were able to land Ajayi from the Miami Dolphins for the mere price of a fourth round pick.
It’s clear Miami has been playing above their talent level. Even though their record stands at 4-3 right now, they don’t have the look of a team ready to be a playoff contender. This trade just throws their league-worst offense into more disarray, to the point where it's questionable if any value can be gleaned from that backfield.
On the other side of the trade though, the Eagles have the best record in football and have the feel of not only being a playoff team, but a team that could run all the way to the Super Bowl. The Eagles' run game has been above average this year. They rank fifth in the NFL with 129.3 yards per game and rank 15th with 4.2 yards per carry. If there has been a deficiency, it’s their four rushing touchdowns which rank 20th. So why would the Dolphins give up a 24-year-old RB who seemed who had his breakout campaign one year ago? Let's look at what happened and, more importantly, look forward to the impact that will be felt by dynasty league owners.
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Ajayi’s Health Concerns
Taken in the fifth round of the 2015 draft, Ajayi slid a long way due to concerns over his knees. Leading up to the draft, many teams removed Ajayi from their draft board because the cartilage in his knees were shot. It was expected that he wouldn't be able to last long in the league, which was one of the primary reasons the Dolphins decided to make the move now. For as bad as scouting reports said his knees were, Ajayi has never missed a game due to knee issues. The Dolphins reportedly were worried that Ajayi had played his best football and that he only had another season or two left.
This offseason, Ajayi was being drafted by owners as high as RB3 overall after the news of Ezekiel Elliot’s suspension (which by the way, still has not been decided.) In a dynasty league, that is risky when injuries have become the norm. Using a first or second round pick on your keystone RB with knee issues is not advised. If the Eagles traded for Ajayi knowing the Dolphins had concerns over his longevity, then expect to see his workload significantly lighter than what he was seeing in Miami. So, how will the workload look in the City of Brotherly Love?
Philadelphia Eagles
Jay Ajayi - RB2
It may not happen right away, but Ajayi will see the bulk of the carries at some point this year. Before the trade, Ajayi was averaging just over 21 touches a game. Right now, Philadelphia is averaging more than 30 rushing attempts per game as a team, second in the league. Having Ajayi will help to increase the depth of the backfield that has dealt with some injuries this year. The Eagles offense is being led by MVP candidate Carson Wentz and if they continue to play this way all season, they will be running the ball more. The Ajayi trade allows the Eagles to spread out the rushing attempts more, keeping Ajayi and LaGarrette Blount healthy. For dynasty owners, stay away from Ajayi. Move him now while he still holds some value. There will be owners in your league who will still want to jump on him as they see the trade to Philly as an upgrade. In real life, yes, this is absolutely an upgrade. In fantasy football, it is not. The RB2 tag I am giving Ajayi above is the absolute ceiling for me. He won’t get enough carries to offer much else. What about touchdowns? Let’s talk about that next.
LeGarrette Blount - Flex
The flex tag for Blount is also generous for me and is driven by one factor. Touchdowns. I’m expecting Blount to see the goal line work after he proved himself in that roll with the Patriots last year rushing for 18 touchdowns, which ranked second in the league. Blount has looked very good this year, averaging 4.7 yards per carry. Even with a high average per carry, Blount ranks outside the top 10 in rushing yards this year. It’s apparent the Eagles are spreading the love when it comes to backfield carries as Blount’s 100 carries on the season also ranks outside the top 10. His fantasy value is going to come from the amount of TDs he gets and based on the fact he currently has two touchdowns; he would need to see more goal line carries this year. I don’t think Wentz is going to let that happen though.
Wendell Smallwood - Deeper Stash
If you were looking for the third down receiving back of the Eagles, it would be Wendell Smallwood. The only problem is; this team really doesn’t have a receiving back. Eagles running backs only have 26 receptions on 39 targets this season. To put that number in perspective, there are 16 running backs who have more receptions by themselves then all Eagles running backs combined. It doesn’t appear that Wentz likes throwing to his backs or the Eagles game plan just doesn’t call for it. Smallwood probably will not hold much value in 2017 but he could be a decent stash for dynasty owners who don’t believe Ajayi will hold up and think Blount will be done in Philly at the end of the year.
Corey Clement - Waiver Wire Watch
The rookie out of Wisconsin went from buried on the depth chart to practically off the depth chart in one trade. Seeing as Ajayi has multiple years left on his deal, it doesn’t appear that the Eagles considered Corey Clement to be a strong candidate to help relieve the workload or take on more carries if Blount were to go down with an injury. A trade like this is a confidence killer for a young back who is looking to increase playing time. As of now, you should keep an eye on Clement if injuries would start to hit the backfield. Even if Blount were not to return in 2018, Clement still appears to be behind Ajayi and Smallwood next year. If your dynasty league utilizes a “taxi squad” or roster outside of your active roster, then he may be worth an addition to that.
Eagles' Overall Offense
Let’s get one thing straight, this is Wentz’s offense and everything runs through him. Coming into 2017, there was a lot of talk that the Eagles would move to the run more and take pressure off of Wentz. That isn’t happening though as Wentz is seventh in the NFL with 264 passing attempts. This offense will continue to run through the air with weapons like Zach Ertz, Alshon Jeffery, Nelson Agholor, Torrey Smith and Mack Hollins. The best thing Ajayi does for this offense is offer the depth they would need if Blount were to go down with an injury. If Blount went down and the Eagles would need to rely on Smallwood and Clement to carry the load, then they become a much more one dimensional offense. When that happens in the NFL, it can cause problems, no matter how good the QB is. With the departure of Ajayi from Miami, it’s a sign that the front office and coaching staff didn’t buy into Ajayi or didn’t buy into their 3-2 start.
Miami Dolphins
It all started with a preseason ACL injury to Ryan Tannehill and since then, it’s been downhill quickly. Between injuries, poor offensive line play and new players struggling to gel with their new teammates, the Dolphins offense has only averaged 13.1 points per game which ranks dead last in the NFL. This offense has way too many weapons, especially at wide receiver, to play this poorly, but here we are. It will be interesting to see how the Dolphins find a kick start without their home run hitter at RB. Maybe it will be one of the new running backs to help.
Damien Williams / Kenyan Drake - Streaming Options
I’m not going to break down these two players separately because I don’t anticipate much from either to start. The Dolphins have already announced that they will be going with a running back by committee approach which is dreadful for fantasy owners to hear. The biggest issue I have, is that between Damien Williams and Kenyan Drake, they have only accounted for 13% of the Dolphins carries COMBINED.
Want to dig even deeper into that stat? Williams and Drake are the only other running backs on the roster who have carried the ball besides Ajayi. The good news is that the Dolphins just traded 82% of their carries mid-season, so they must believe in the other guys on the roster. I expect these backs to split carries as close to 50/50 as the Dolphins can make it. Neither has a real track record to go off except for sporadic carries the last few seasons, so it’s hard to gauge what to expect moving forward. In dynasty leagues though, you want good depth at running back so it doesn’t hurt to add Williams and/or Drake.
The Dolphins have a decent schedule as well to finish 2017 with only two tough matchups left. They will face Carolina who rank fifth against the run and Denver who ranks first, but in between come better opportunities. They will have the Raiders (25th), Buccaneers (15th), Patriots twice (27th) and during most leagues championship week, they play the Chiefs (28th). It doesn’t hurt to have those odds on your team instead of someone else’s. Beyond this year depends on the state of the offense. Tannehill will need to make his way back from surgery again and there has been talk that Jarvis Landry could be on the way out the door. None of that matters though if the Dolphins front office can’t address issues with the offensive line either in the draft or in free agency.
Jarvis Landry - WR2 and Leonte Carroo - Deeper Stash
Jarvis Landry has found his way to the top of PPR wide receiver boards for three years now. The main reason I include Leonte Carroo in the same section, is because Carroo will be the benefactor of Landry’s inevitable departure. There haven’t been any new contract talks between the Dolphins and Landry plus the team decided to float his name last minute at the trade deadline. All of that adds up to Landry being on a new team next year. Jay Cutler seemed to be heating up before going down with broken ribs a couple weeks ago and Landry saw the biggest benefit. The three games prior to Cutler's injury, Landry had 20 catches on 35 targets for 199 yards and three touchdowns. Even Matt Moore will be able to get Landry the ball enough to make him a viable WR2 for the rest of 2017 and if you are in a PPR league, he still has WR1 upside.
When Landry does depart, expect Carroo to see a major uptick in his usage. If you are reading this and you are also a Carroo truther, then you already know. Dynasty owners will want to have this guy stashed now heading into the rest of the season. He has had zero impact his first two years in the league but he is a Landry departure and another WR injury away from major playing time. Who want to have guys like that with good talent saved for a rainy day.
Bottom line: the departure of Ajayi leads to more potential targets for Landry this year and possibly Carroo next year.
DeVante Parker - WR2 and Kenny Stills - Bench Stash / Deeper League Flex
This receiver corps in Miami is extremely talented. DeVante Parker has missed some time but has so far been a disappointment for owners who expected him to offer WR2 numbers. He still has a chance to get back to that status with a strong finish to the year. The good news is that Miami isn’t very good and if they have to throw a lot, garbage time stats could be your best friend. He is a must own in dynasty league however and in fact, if you don’t have him and are building towards next year, he could be a good buy low candidate. If Landry is out of the picture in 2018, then Parker is the true WR1 for the Dolphins. I am not completely buying into Parker yet. Many people felt Parker was on his way to a breakout season, but having Landry on the same team stealing targets lowered that ceiling and feeding the ball to Ajayi so much lowered it more. Add in the fact that Tannehill should be back and healthy next year, and Parker has much more working in his favor then 2017.
Kenny Stills offers depth and that is about it. With Parker back from injury and Landry the target hog of the bunch, Stills only offers playable upside if Parker or Landry miss time. The trade of Ajayi doesn’t change much when it comes to Stills value as it is more dependent on the other receivers first. If you play in a larger league or one that has deeper rosters, then stashing Stills is a great option.
Dynasty Fallout
The Ajayi trade has sent many owners scrambling for answers, but honestly, this hasn’t changed much for me outside of the value for Blount. I didn’t buy into Ajayi before the season and I don’t buy into him now. Ajayi rushed for 1,272 yards last year but 49% of those yards came against two teams. One of those teams, the Buffalo Bills, had one of the worst rush defenses in all the NFL last season. His success was not sustainable heading into this year and the price tag for him, either redraft or dynasty, was far too high for my blood. At this point, the price still remains far too high. Ajayi is going to see a decrease in workload for a team that throws the fall far too often to have a RB1 on the team. If you own Ajayi and know an owner in your league that wants him bad enough, sell now. Ajayi won’t offer you enough in 2017 and his health is too problematic to offer enough upside in a dynasty league.
