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Hi there, RotoBallers, and welcome back to Break The Slate! It's great to be back talking NFL DFS with you! With all of the options available on the Week 13 Main Slate, we suspected that it would be a fun, high-scoring DFS week, and that was indeed the case, as massive scores were required to win GPPs.
As we turn our attention to Week 14, it appears that this slate will be drastically different from the one we saw just a week ago. Obvious plays are few and far between, as are matchups that we're eager to target. With so few clear plays, we can expect ownership to congregate heavily on a small number of players that feel like "the only good options". This creates some terrific opportunities for us to gain leverage in large-field GPPs simply by focusing on talent and volume, as well as thinking a bit outside of the box in some cases.
These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected ownership, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great plays available, so read on to find out which players are the best for Week 14. Be sure to also check out our weekly FanDuel DFS lineup picks and lots of other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big! I try to update the article on Saturdays to reflect any significant injuries or late-breaking news, as the landscape of the slate can change quickly in the NFL throughout the course of a week, so I hope that you will drop in to check those out before finalizing your lineups. Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups, let's Break The Slate together!
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DraftKings Quarterbacks - Week 14 DFS Picks
Josh Allen - BUF @ TB ($7,800)
I mentioned in the intro that there are very few "clear and obvious" spots on this slate. However, this Bills vs. Bucs matchup stands out as one of the game environments we want to target in Week 14, with Buffalo's Josh Allen being the player that I'm most interested in rostering. Allen limps into this matchup on the heels of a Monday night stinker against New England, an environment in which he faced both a tough Pats defense and brutal, snowy conditions. He should find both easier to navigate this week, as he'll get to operate in Florida weather against a Bucs defense that is one of the league's true pass-funnel units.
Running the ball against Tampa Bay is usually a fool's errand, but it's not as if the Bills actually want to run anyway, as they pass the ball at the third-highest situational-neutral rate in the NFL. Due to the nature of the Bucs defensive strengths and Buffalo's offensive philosophy, this game will rest on Allen, and while the wheels on the Bills' wagon have looked a bit wobbly as of late, the Wyoming product still possesses the highest raw ceiling of any QB on the slate.
Taysom Hill - NO @ NYJ ($5,600)
If you want to play it safe at QB this week, it's tough to argue with the value and the point-scoring floor that Taysom Hill brings to the table. Hill finally got the starting nod at QB for the Saints in a Week 13 Thursday night matchup against the Dallas Cowboys, delivering 101 yards on the ground, as well as 264 yards and two TDs through the air. Unfortunately, he also threw four picks and completed less than half of his 41 pass attempts.
The outing against Dallas perfectly illustrates why Hill is such a strong DFS option...even when he has a bad game from a real-life perspective, he is still able to produce a very solid DK score thanks to his rushing ability. He brings that tremendous floor into an as-good-as-it-gets matchup against the New York Jets this week. The Jets have been laughably bad in every facet this season and currently rank dead last in the NFL in Total Defense DVOA.
SATURDAY UPDATE:
My focus is narrowly concentrated at QB this week and includes the highlighted players above, as well as Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, Justin Herbert, and Dak Prescott. The obvious value pivot away from Taysom Hill is Cam Newton, although I don't think you'll gain tons of ground, as Newton will also be a popular salary saver.
DraftKings Running Backs - Week 14 DFS Picks
Alvin Kamara - NO @ NYJ ($7,900)
While many DFS players will be more than willing to roster Taysom Hill, I imagine the masses will be fairly reluctant to pull the trigger on his New Orleans teammate, Alvin Kamara. That reluctance stems from the fact that Kamara is returning from a four-game absence due to an MCL sprain, and that he and Hill haven't exactly looked like a terrific fit when on the field together. While those may be reasonable concerns, rostering a sub-$8k Kamara at low ownership against the Jets is a strategy that I'm very interested in deploying this week. He serves as a nice pivot away from what will be a popular Taysom Hill (if you wanna play some 4D chess you can even pair them together) and a popular Austin Ekeler. This New York unit stands at or near the bottom of the league in almost every imaginable rush defense metric, but perhaps the most eye-opening illustration is that they've relinquished 442.40 DraftKings points to the RB position this year, while the second-most points allowed to the position is the Seattle Seahawks at 381.
Javonte Williams - DET @ DEN ($5,900)
Many have not-so-patiently waited for Javonte Williams to have the Denver Broncos backfield to himself. Unfortunately for those that play the main slate, Williams' Shawshank moment came last Sunday night against Kansas City. With Melvin Gordon on the sidelines with a hip injury, the rookie responded in a big way, going for 178 total yards and a TD on a career-high 29 touches.
Good news…we’ll get our chance this week, as Williams is both on the DraftKings main slate and in an absolute smash spot against the woeful Detroit Lions, a team that has relinquished 107.6 rushing yards per game this season. The bad news? The unknown status of Gordon.
While I believe Williams is viable even if Gordon does play this week, I will keep an eye on the situation as the week progresses, with the rookie being either a “very good play” if Gordon does suit up or a “lock-button auto-play” if he doesn’t.
SATURDAY UPDATE:
It looks as though Melvin Gordon will be active for Denver, which certainly dings Javonte Williams' upside. Despite Javonte smashing last week, I don't think we can count on this stubborn Broncos' "brain trust" to turn the backfield over to Williams. While that injury situation doesn't appear to be going our way, there will be some value opening up at other spots. San Fran's Elijah Mitchell has been ruled out, which will pave the way for Jeff Wilson Jr. and his $4.4k price tag to lead the Niners rushing attack. With both D'Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams ruled out for the Detroit Lions, we will see some combination of Godwin Igwebuike and Jemar Jefferson in a tough matchup against Denver. The matchup for Tampa's Leonard Fournette is tough, but his role remains massive in a high-octane Bucs offense. Josh Jacobs' pass work has spiked in the absence of Kenyan Drake (out for the season) and Jalen Richard (currently on C19 list)...he's once again a very solid option that sports a reasonable price tag. Let's keep an eye on injuries to Tony Pollard and J.D. McKissic, as their status will heavily impact the workloads of Ezekiel Elliott and Antonio Gibson. It's been a while, but we know the type of upside that Saquon Barkley has and he's squaring off against a Chargers defense that is dead last in the NFL against the run. I love the matchup for Carolina's Chuba Hubbard against Atlanta, but he's underperformed in the CMC role to this point. Tennessee's Dontrell Hilliard is dynamic and affordable, but will there be enough volume there with Jeremy McNichols returning to the fold?
DraftKings Wide Receivers - Week 14 DFS Picks
Terry McLaurin - DAL @ WAS ($7,000)
Terry McLaurin is the first of what are two likely-surprising WR plays. Totaling just 73 combined yards over his last two, the public perception is low on McLauren at the moment. However, elite players don't stay down forever and this is the type of perfect buy-low spot - on the perfect type of slate - that can put us over the top in large-field GPPs. He'll be overlooked for multiple reasons - a couple of recent bad games, the perceived difficult matchup with Dallas' Trevon Diggs, a popular Antonio Gibson - but let's keep in mind that this isn't season-long fantasy football and that we only care about "spike" performances in DFS.
McLaurin has a surprisingly high number of disappointing performances on his resume this season, but his good games have been very good, as he's crossed the 30 DK point barrier twice and went for 24 or more DK points on two occasions. His average of 108.6 Air Yards per game stands seventh in the NFL and though Cowboys' CB Trevon Diggs has made tons of splashy plays this season, he has shown himself to be susceptible to the deep ball when facing speedy receivers. In two matchups against Diggs and the Cowboys last season, McLaurin combined for 14 catches, 182 yards, and a score.
Ja'Marr Chase - SF @ CIN ($6,900)
Like McLaurin, Ja'Marr Chase has notched a couple of 30-plus DK point performances this season but comes into Week 14 in something of a rut. The rookie's DK price tag has dipped below $7k for the first time since Week 7 and his ownership levels on this slate will be minimal. It's a terrific spot to buy the dip on an explosive player that is averaging 7.5 targets per game and possesses elite averages in both aDOT (13.3) and Air Yards (97.8). He's also facing a Niners secondary that will be without their best player in Emmanuel Moseley and is relinquishing 8.10 yards per target to opposing WRs. Sign me up.
SATURDAY UPDATE:
The WR position is #NotGreat this week. Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs weren't in the main write-up, but are unquestionably two of the top plays on the slate. San Fran's Deebo Samuel is shaping up to be a game-time decision...if he plays I'm interested, if he doesn't, it's a nice bounce-back spot for Brandon Aiyuk. L.A.'s chain-mover extraordinaire Keenan Allen has been officially ruled out, while we're still in wait-and-see mode with Mike Williams as I write this. If both are out, Jalen Guyton and Josh Palmer jump into immediate consideration. If Williams is able to get cleared he's an obvious smash play. Ownership projections around the industry indicate that the Dallas receiving corps is going largely ignored...how are we not slam dunking a $5.9k Amari Cooper into GPP lineups?!? Let's keep an eye on Tee Higgins' injury status. The absence of Buffalo's Tre'Davious White really opens things up for Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. It feels like DK Metcalf has a monster game coming and he's playing the Houston freakin' Texans this week. Hunter Renfrow is set to eat once again with Darren Waller out. Can we play Julio Jones in a Tennessee receiving corps that's decimated?
DraftKings Tight Ends - Week 14 DFS Picks
Mark Andrews - BAL @ CLE ($5,900)
It's no secret that this Baltimore Ravens offense hasn't looked good as of late and I believe it will impact the ownership of Ravens across the board. While Baltimore has struggled as a whole, Mark Andrews has continued to chug right along. He's seen double-digit targets in three of the Ravens' last five (eight or more in all five) and posted 15 or more DK points in three of their last four.
Cleveland ranks 21st in overall Pass Defense DVOA and has allowed the fourth-most TDs in the NFL to the TE position with seven. Andrews emerged from a Week 12 matchup against the Browns with a 4/65/1 stat line and has a chance to better that output this week with his consistently heavy volume.
Dawson Knox - BUF @ TB ($5,000)
It's only fitting that we round out this week's "buy low" themed article with Dawson Knox, a player that suffered through a horrific Week 13 performance in a very public Monday football matchup against the Patriots. Knox struggled with multiple drops against New England last week, which doesn't exactly inspire confidence. However, we must have a short-term memory in DFS and last week's performance aside, it has been a true breakout year for the Bills TE.
Knox has routinely displayed a nose for the endzone and is tied for the NFL lead in tight end TDs with seven. We've already touched on what a pass-funnel defense this Tampa Bay unit is when discussing Josh Allen and they've been especially susceptible to opposing TEs. The Bucs have allowed 700 yards and five TDs to the TE position this season.
SATURDAY UPDATE:
I'm totally fine with any of the "Big 3" - Kelce, Kittle, Gronk - this week. Interesting rebound spot for Foster Moreau with Darren Waller once again out. Ricky Seals-Jones will play a million % of the snaps for The Football Team in Logan Thomas' absence. Austin Hooper is the last TE standing for Cleveland, while Jared Cook is an interesting way to get exposure to this Chargers situation if Mike Williams doesn't suit up.
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