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Hi there, RotoBallers, and welcome back to Break The Slate! The Wild Card round of the Playoffs proved to be pretty boring from a competitive standpoint, but I expect this weekend's Divisional Round to be much more interesting, so I'm excited to share my DraftKings NFL DFS lineup picks for the Divisional Round.
Obviously, we have to adjust our normal DFS strategy with only four games in play for the Divisional Round. DraftKings is offering several game format options to its players, with multiple slates that we can choose from. Rather than try to write lots of articles focusing on individual slates, this week's Break The Slate column will highlight plays from all four Divisional Round matchups in an attempt to serve as a one-stop-shop for all of your NFL DFS needs over the next few days.
These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected ownership, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great plays available, so read on to find out which players are the best for the Divisional Round of the playoffs. Be sure to also check out our weekly FanDuel DFS lineup picks and lots of other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big! Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups, let's Break The Slate together!
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DraftKings Quarterbacks - Divisional Round DFS Picks
Josh Allen - BUF @ KC
Josh Allen is the most expensive QB across all DraftKings slates this weekend, but it's possible that he's still underpriced. While this Buffalo offense undoubtedly possesses some talented pieces, Allen is capable of being a one-man-wrecking-crew for the Bills. He smashed through the New England Patriots in last weekend's Wild Card matchup, racking up an eye-opening 41.9 DK points on the strength of 308 passing yards and five TDs.
This weekend's matchup against Kansas City is a good one, as the Chiefs allowed the second-most DK points in the NFL to the QB position this season and stand just 23rd in the league in Pass Defense DVOA. Allen has already torched this unit once this season, racking up 315 passing yards, 59 rushing yards, and four total scores in a Bills 38-20 romp over the Chiefs in Week 5. This game environment is the most enticing of the slate, with an O/U currently set at 53.5 and two explosive offenses that are capable of turning this one into a shootout.
Joe Burrow - CIN @ TEN
Joe Burrow has already delivered the franchise its first playoff win in 31 years, so it's probably a big ask to expect him to keep things rolling on the road against the AFC's top-seeded Tennessee Titans. However, I'm a Burrow truther and - even with the likes of Mahomes, Brady, and Rodgers at our disposal on this slate - like his chances of exceeding salary-based expectations this weekend.
The Titans aren't going to grade out horrible from a statistical standpoint - they rank 11th in the NFL in Pass Defense DVOA - but when we dig we can find some cracks in the foundation of this secondary. Tennessee ranks 20th in the league in both DK points and yards per attempt allowed to the QB position. They've been especially susceptible to the deep ball and relinquished a massive 60 pass plays of 20-plus yards this season...the sixth-most in the NFL. This could be a fire-meets-gasoline matchup for Burrow and a talented Bengals' receiving corps that thrives downfield. Burrow completed the fourth-most passes of 20-plus yards in the league this year (60) and had the second-most completions of 40-plus yards (15).
DraftKings Running Backs - Divisional Round DFS Picks
Devin Singletary - BUF @ KC
When we consider the unknown status of both Derrick Henry and Leonard Fournette, as well as the unpredictability in the Los Angeles and Kansas City backfields, there are lots of moving parts at the RB position on this slate. While there are some legitimate game-theory reasons to attempt to "guess right" on a limited slate such as this one, I'll handle the position in a fairly straightforward manner this weekend. That mindset starts with one of the hottest backs in the league, Buffalo's Devin Singletary.
After spending the majority of the season locked in a bizarro-world timeshare with Zack Moss and Matt Breida, Singletary was finally unleashed in Week 15 and has averaged 20.6 touches per game over Buffalo's last five. The increase in volume has led to a noticeable spike in production, as he's posted 24 or more DK points in three straight. He'll bring that hot hand into a juicy matchup against the Chiefs. KC was gashed on the ground during the regular season to the tune of 4.64 yards per carry, a mark which was the third-worst in the NFL.
Elijah Mitchell - SF @ GB
The love affair between Kyle Shanahan and Elijah Mitchell continues to flourish. Long known for his Belichick-like penchant for swapping running backs, the Niners head coach has shown an uncharacteristic level of commitment to the rookie this season. When healthy, Mitchell has been the unquestioned lead dog in the San Fran backfield. He's logged 20 or more carries in six straight and 17 or more in 10 of 12 this season. This hasn't been empty volume either, as his average of 4.7 yards per carry trailed just Jonathan Taylor, Nick Chubb, and Dalvin Cook among backs with 200 or more carries this season. He's set to lead this run-heavy Niners attack in what's expected to be a frigid environment at Lambeau Field against a Packers squad that allowed 4.28 yards per carry to opposing backs during the regular season.
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DraftKings Wide Receivers - Divisional Round DFS Picks
Cooper Kupp - LAR @ TB & Davante Adams - SF @ GB
You don't need me to tell you that these guys are tremendous options, but I felt that I had to at least note them in this week's article. If you can fit 'em, play 'em.
Tee Higgins - CIN @ TEN
We've already touched on Tennessee's penchant for allowing big plays in the passing game in the Joe Burrow portion of this article. As a result, I love the Bengals' receivers in this spot. While Ja'Marr Chase's record-breaking season and phenomenal performance in the Wild Card round will draw most of the attention, I love the idea of pivoting to Tee Higgins in order to save salary.
He's coming off a very quiet 1/10/0 outing against the Raiders last week, a performance that reminds us that his DFS floor can be scary low. However, his season-long aDOT of 12.1 is right in line with Chase's (12.6), while his recent regular-season outbursts of 46.4 DK points in Week 16 and 31.8 DK points in Week 13 are indicative of his upside. Tennessee relinquished the second-most DK points and receiving yards in the NFL to the WR position during the regular season, and while the Titans will try to make this game a grind-it-out affair, there are certainly some paths that lead to a monster outing from Higgins here.
Odell Beckham Jr. - LAR @ TB
Well...I definitely didn't have "writing up Odell Beckham Jr. in a Divisional playoff game" on my 2022 Bingo card, but here we are. After a midseason release from the hellscape that is the Cleveland Browns passing offense, OBJ elected to sign with the high-powered Rams. It was a good decision, as he's been surprisingly productive while playing a secondary role to Cooper Kupp in this L.A. offense and has found the endzone on six occasions while sporting a Rams jersey.
You can legitimately argue that his upside is capped while playing beside Kupp or that he's touchdown-dependant, but we must keep in mind that DFS is a format in which we only care about what happens in one specific game. When we zoom in on this matchup against Tampa Bay, there's reason to be bullish on OBJ's prospects. The Bucs run defense hasn't been quite the stonewall that it was last season but has been effective enough to routinely force opposing teams to the air. Tampa Bay faced the most pass attempts in the NFL during the regular season (676) which led to them coughing up 2,702 receiving yards to the WR position, the tenth-most in the league.
DraftKings Tight Ends - Divisional Round DFS Picks
Travis Kelce - BUF @ KC
With a brutal on-paper matchup against a Buffalo defense that allowed the second-fewest receptions and TDs to the TE position during the regular season, we might be able to catch Travis Kelce's ownership a bit under what it should be on this slate. While this spot against a tough Bills unit isn't exactly one I'm pumped to target, the Chief's future Hall of Famer has repeatedly proven himself to be matchup proof throughout his illustrious career. Kelce has faced this Buffalo defense on three occasions over the past two years and has combined for 240 yards and five TDs on 24 catches.
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