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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje on 05/07/22. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
Let's go! It's UFC Numbered Event time! And you know what that means, even if you have any clue what's on tape. Also, please, start paying attention because this won't happen again for a month and change after UFC 274, and that waiting period will come with one of those stupid no-MMA weekends baked into it. Ugh. Good for us, Dana took good care of us and crafted a phenomenal main card for folks around the globe to enjoy this Saturday as we hit the Footprint Center in Phoenix, AZ.
We'll get to watch a couple of champions put their belts on the line. Charles Oliveira will defend his against Justin Gaethje at Lightweight, while Rose Namajunas will do so against Carla Esparza for the right to boast the Women's Strawweight stripe. If only was that all... But no! There are tons more! Tony Ferguson is a walking murderer and his fight will be smacked right in the middle of the card, Ovince Saint Preux will come before that facing legend Mauricio Rua, and infinite Cowboy Cerrone is the one scheduled to open the main card already into the tastiest of stages of the event. Simply put, can't wait!
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje on 05/07/22. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Charles Oliveira (C), $8500 - vs. Justin Gaethje
Charlie-O is the reigning champ and already into his belt-defending tenure with one successful defense happening last December when he was good to submit Dustin Poirier at the beginning of the third round. He had KO'd Michael Chandler to become champ (5:19 minutes) in May last year, and he's actually finished all rivals he's faced from 2014 on (!!!) with the exception of Tony Ferguson. Oliveira's won 10 straight, all of them since the start of 2018. That's absolutely insane.
Of course, Gaethje is no joke of a fighter. He started his career with two KO defeats, then proceeded to knock out his four next opponents--including Tony Ferguson to claim a belt for the first time in his career, only to drop it five months after that to mighty Nurmagomedov. A rebound win against Michael Chandler (before Chandler lost the title to Oliveira) last November made it clear Gaethje would be next in line. Gaethje doesn't give a damn about grappling nor taking folks down (no attempts attempted or landed at all in his career) while his striking raters are insane, finishing above 63% in all last four of his fights. Too bad for JG, Oliveira has it all. Can KO, sub, and go the distance. The takedowns come at a reasonably high rate. The striking is less voluminous, but the rates are virtually always above 63% too. It's Oliveira all day, I'm afraid.
DraftKings MMA Women's Strawweight- UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Rose Namajunas (C), $8900 vs. Carla Esparza
I don't think Rose gets all of the plaudits she deserves, honestly. Namajunas started doing it in 2015 and she never stopped her ascension toward a legit HOF career. Rose got her first shot at a title at just 25 years old against the unstoppable Joanna Jedrzejczyk, and she already got the W just 3:03 into the fight. Rose won the re-match five months later pretty much ending JJ's chances at touching her, though Rose could only lose to Jessica Andrade next surrendering the title. It's been three wins in a row after that, the last two against Zhang Weili first to snatch the belt from the Chinese and then to successfully defend it against him.
Esparza, on the other hand, is fighting for a title this weekend at age-34 and for the first time in her UFC tenure (started in Mar. 2015, almost in parallel to Rose). Esparza never got things quite right until 2019, as she has yet to lose since Sep. 2018 when she did so for the last time. She's on a five-fight winning streak with the first four going the distance and the last one ending with a second-round KO. Rose has the edge at finishing opponents (five early wins to Esparza's one) and also a clear advantage in striking (both on volume and landing rates). Grappling is where Esparza might find an opening, though. Esparza is adept at trying takedowns (9+ in four of her last five bouts) and great at succeeding with them (3+ TD landed in four of those five, at least one in all except one fight in her career). All things considered, though, Rose has the most complete package, comes with the same floor as that of Esparza, but with a massively higher ceiling. Another favorite retaining the belt.
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Michael Chandler, $9600 - vs. Tony Ferguson
So I guess... this is just a losers' fight? Both Chandler and Ferguson are going against each other for the first time--which is reasonable because Chandler has been part of the UFC roster for just 16 months and no earlier than Jan. 2021--while both of them can already boast about having lost to the two main eventers of Saturday's evening. Chandler dropped one against Oliveira, losing his chance at a pretty quick title turnaround (KO'd in 5:19 minutes) while Ferguson did the same against Justin Gaethje in May 2020 and has yet to get himself another W, having lost three straight.
Now, the thing is, where does the division go from here? Tony and Chandler have lost to both Oliveira and Gaethje in the past 16 months. Will any of the latter two want a rematch against whoever comes out winning this one? We'll see, but what is clear is that these two seem to be a tier below the champ and main contender of the weekend. Whoever wins will do so for the first time in at least two fights. Ferguson is a career murderer, but he might very well be a washed one these days: he's gone from attempting 19+ SSA per minute in 2019 to a ridiculous 2.5 in his last two fights (34 and 45 total SSA over two 15-minute defeats). Chandler has been much more active (9.6+ in each of the past three) though he got KO'd by Charles Oliveira and Gaethje beat him on a kinda balanced decision. Tony is always a menacing man, but he seems to be past his prime by a mile. Give me Chandler for this one and a re-do against whoever gets the win in the final fight of the event.
DraftKings MMA Light Heavyweight- UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Ovince Saint Preux, $9200 - vs. Mauricio Rua
The early part of the main card is delightful. Just for context, Rua debuted against UFC Legend Forrest Griffin back in 2007 (!) and OSP against Gian Villante in 2013 (almost ten years ago, no joke either). They have done it 22 and 23 times respectively, and although Rua is the only champion of the two (KO victory against Lyoto Machida! in 2010), OSP also had a shot at the belt back in 2016 when he dropped a decision to unbeatable Jon Jones. It's been an up and down road for both men of late, with Rua boasting a 2-2-1 record since the start of 2018 and Saint Preux sitting at 3-5 in that same span.
No age advantages here, with Rua and OSP almost hitting 40 pops soon. Now, for what matters most (those veteran chins), Rua has gotten KO'd twice (including in his last fight) and has been out of the fighting circuit since Nov. 2020. OSP got rocked in his last one too (Jun. 2021) but he hadn't since as long ago as 2016. They have KO'd one foe themselves since 2018, though OSP also has a win via a submission that Rua has yet to accomplish in his UFC career. While both fighters have some takedown numbers (Rua's are actually better), it's not that they are going to win you the day with that. The problem is that the striking isn't any good these days, either. They barely attempt 5 SSA/min, and the land rates are as low as around 43% for both of them. I'd fade both, honestly. But if you need to pick one, I'd side with OSP bouncing back against Rusty Rua and potentially even finishing for a high fantasy score.
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Joe Lauzon, $7400 - vs. Donald Cerrone
Just three more fights, Cerrone. Just three more, please. The Cowboy will step inside the Octagon for the 38th time come Saturday, which is just ridiculous. He's still 39 years old, though, and he often fights more than three times per year--except in 2021--so there is a very real chance he makes the 40 Club in a few months. He will tie Andrei Arlovski this weekend and after that, it'd only be Jim Miller above him with 39 fights (but still active). Cerrone, of course, is doing it just for the love (and the bags) these days. He's lost five of his last six fights and that exception ended in a draw... Even more worrying, he's gotten KO'd in four of those five losses.
Joe Lauzon is not new to this thing, either. He's younger but has done it 25 times himself. The problem: he's not been inside the Octagon for almost three years, which is going to be a very concerning thing for him this weekend. The most ridiculous thing is that Lauzon already stayed out for 18 months before his last fight and came out firing and snatching a first-round, 1:33-minute KO victory back in Oct. 2019. This feels like a clickbait fight, honestly, and a money-grabbing affair based purely on the names featuring on it with the appeal of a big "what if this is the last time we see any of these two going at it!?" but not much more. I'd fade the hell out of the two, but I'd bet on Lauzon pulling off the upset on a cheap-as-hell salary on DK.
