Get today's top DraftKings daily fantasy hockey lineup picks for October 6, 2026. Doug's expert NHL DFS goalies picks, value plays, stacks, and power play picks.
On to week two of the NHL season! It may not seem like a huge milestone, but at this point in the year, many teams have played as many games as they did in the preseason. Patterns start to emerge, data begins to matter, and we can start to see how the early part of the season is shaping up.
That’s not to say every piece of data is perfectly reliable, but every large sample size started as a small sample size. We won’t rely too heavily on outlier data, but we can still use it to spot advantages and then dig further into matchups. We’ve started the season on a hot streak, and with a few games under our belt, I expect that to continue.
I aim to help you narrow your plays to get the most bang for your DFS buck. NHL Premium members can find members of the RotoBaller NHL family on Discord, where our chat is always active. I'll bring my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings for Tuesday, October 6, at 7:00 p.m. ET. Also check out RotoBaller's awesome NHL tools, including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, and Heat Map.
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NHL DFS Analysis And Picks For 10/6/26
Toronto Maple Leafs (TOR1 - Auston Matthews, Jack Roslovic, Kirill Marchenko; $18900 DK)
Defensive Addition: Darren Raddysh ($6000 DK)
Coming on the heels of one of their worst season’s in franchise history, one that secured them the top pick in this past season’s draft, one would think the Maple Leafs would bounce back in a big way to start this year. That hasn’t happened, as the team has scored just two goals in each of their first three games of the season.
Box score watchers may look at that and write off the potential of this one high-powered offense, but a deeper dive into the numbers shows that good things are on the horizon for Auston Matthews and company. The Leafs have scored a full goal fewer per game than expected, showing a ton of aggression with 14.4 high-danger chances per 60 minutes. That kind of high-pressure offense won’t last long, and with the talent in Toronto, a turnaround is imminent.
Tonight, they’ll match up against a Nashville team that fell apart defensively last season. Goalie Juuse Saros has saved just 75% of the high-danger chances he’s faced over the team’s previous 15 road games; a bad metric against a team like Toronto. The defensive pairing of Roman Josi and Nicholas Hague has started the year poorly, allowing 3.45 expected goals and 40.83 scoring chances per 60 minutes. We attacked Josi last season to great success, and he doesn’t look like he’s improved this offseason.
Matthews has put up 10 shots over the first three games, while Kirill Marchenko and Jack Roslovic have chipped in 15 more. Offseason acquisition Darren Raddysh has yet to score, but he’s already contributed 12 SABS (shots and blocked shots) and is the power-play quarterback. This is an expensive stack, priced just under $25000, but they are in a great spot to put up a crooked number, and there’s more than enough value on this slate in Minnesota and New York to make it work.
New York Rangers (NYR2 - Pavel Dorofeyev, J.T. Miller, Tye Kartye; $13400 DK)
Defensive Addition: Adam Fox ($5300 DK)
Neither the Rangers nor the Islanders should be particularly good this season, but underlying numbers make this a game with sneaky fantasy appeal. The big key is the defensive matchups, and the one we want to attack the most is Alexander Romanov and Ryan Pulock of the Islanders.
That duo is off to a treacherous start this year, allowing a slate-high 6.88 even-strengh goals and 27.96 high-danger chances, along with 55.91 scoring chances per 60 minutes. Obviously, those inflated numbers aren't sustainable, but they do speak to how poorly the pairing is playing. We’ve targeted both defenders in the past, so these advanced stats aren't anomalies we should ignore.
Goalie Ilya Sorokin has stood on his head, giving up just two goals on 63 shots through two games this year, but at some point the lack of defense in front of him will be his downfall, especially with a second pairing on the team playing equally as poorly as Romanov and Pulock. After getting shut out in their first game of the season, the Rangers scored 11 goals over their next three games.
Pavel Dorofeyev has scored just once, but he’s brought his aggressive game from Vegas, taking 15 shots through four games and twice achieving the 5+ shot bonus on DraftKings. He’s exactly the type of player who can take advantage of a defensive lapse and look to break through Sorokin’s stone wall.
I’m including defenseman Adam Fox in my Rangers stack if I can, as he played on the power play with Dorofeyev and J.T. Miller. He has four assists over his past three games and is the engine that helps make the New York offense hum. If they have a big game, you can bet he will be highly involved.
Vegas Golden Knights (VGK1 - Jack Eichel, Ivan Barvashev, Mark Stone; $20900 DK)
Defensive Addition: Shea Theodore ($5600 DK)
Doug “the Vegas homer” makes an appearance again tonight, but can you blame me for how well the Knights top line is currently playing? The trio of Jack Eichel, Mark Stone, and Ivan Barbashev are averaging over 26 DraftKings points per game. Eichel has taken two shots in each game and has six points, including at least one in each contest.
Power play goal for Vegas!
Scored by Victor Olofsson with 05:30 left in the 2nd. Assisted by Mark Stone and Jack Eichel.
VAN: 1 | VGK: 2
#VGKvsVAN #Canucks #VegasBorn https://t.co/8BO4XCeCq4— NHL Goals (@nhl_goal_bot) October 5, 2026
Shea Theodore, a player I wrote up for a bounce-back season earlier this summer, has delivered a goal, two assists, and 12 SABS over the season’s first three games. He is a must with any Vegas stack, playing on the power play with Eichel and Stone. This line will get the best matchup on the team, lining up against the Kraken’s defensive duo of Adam Larsson and Vince Dunn.
They have continued the struggles that plagued them last year, allowing 4.19 expected goals and 39.16 scoring chances over the season’s first week. Joey Daccord, like Ilya Sorokin, stood on his head in his first two starts, but he’s saved just 83% of the high-danger chances he’s faced and has surrendered 2.74 even-strength goals per 60 minutes on the road over the team’s previous 15 home games. Seattle has a vulnerable back end and is susceptible to an explosion game against a hot team like Vegas.
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NHL DFS Value Stack of the Night
Minnesota Wild (MIN3 - Ryan Hartman, Bobby Brink, Yakov Trenin; $10000 DK)
We are just one week into the season, and this is already the second time I’ve featured Minnesota's third line. Bobby Brink has looked the part, recording an assist in both games while averaging 7.9 DraftKings points. That’s perfectly acceptable production from a guy priced at just $2700.
Yakov Trenin is even cheaper at just $2500, and he produced four shots on goal against Boston on Saturday night. Ryan Hartman, the most accomplished player on this line, chipped in an assist and two blocked shots on Saturday. It doesn’t take much for a line this inexpensive to be a worthwhile play, and these guys are getting it done in a variety of ways.
Tonight they’ll match up against Buffalo’s most vulnerable defensive pairing, Louis Crevier and Zach Metsa. Together, they’ve allowed 6.72 expected goals, 42.15 scoring chances, and 25.29 high-danger chances per 60 minutes so far this year. Like the Islanders’ exaggerated numbers, this type of ineptitude won’t last all year, but it does speak to how poorly these defenders are playing. We want to take shots against them when we can, and to do so with such value is a huge bonus.
NHL DFS Goalie to Target
Jakub Dobes (MTL - $7500 DK)
Will the real Jakub Dobes please stand up? Is he the guy who allowed just two goals on 28 shots in Toronto on the first night of the season, or is he the guy who allowed six goals in Pittsburgh five nights later? Dating back to last season, I would lean toward saying he’s the goalie we saw against the Maple Leafs.
Over the team’s past 15 home games, he’s allowed just 2.31 even-strength goals per 60 minutes, saving nearly 85% of the high-danger shots he’s faced. That’s the kind of statistical profile we want from a goalie priced near the bottom of the position. Dobes should see some of the highest shot volume on the night, as he’s the only goalie whose team has allowed 29 or more shots on goal, and whose opponent has taken 29 or more shots on goal per game this season.
Jakub Dobeš has picked up this season where he left off 🧱
📺: Sportsnet https://t.co/KSmdDpmJMW
— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) September 30, 2026
Just as important, the defending Stanley Cup Champion Hurricanes seem to be having a bit of a hangover after their long playoff run last season, scoring fewer than one even-strength goal while generating less than 10 high-danger chances per 60 minutes in the young season. Better times are ahead for Carolina, but even if they regress positively and score three goals, Dobes should have enough volume to be a worthwhile play at his price in tournaments.
Others in consideration: Carter Hart (VGK), Joel Hofer (STL), Jesper Wallstedt (MIN)
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