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The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 4/30/21. Euan Leith's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
Happy Friday, Rotoballers! It's the final day of the first month of the season, and so much has already happened in the baseballing world. Kansas City is atop the AL Central, New York is in the cellar of the AL East, and San Francisco leads the NL West. So everything is going according to plan! You've got to love early-season baseball and the overreactions you can talk yourself into.
Meanwhile, in DFS land, we've got some aces making their sixth starts of the season as Gerrit Cole, Shane Bieber, and Yu Darvish solidify the top of the pitching options. You can't go wrong with any of that trio tonight. However, it's the secondary arms that are the most intriguing. I could see myself start any number of pitchers from John Means ($8,800) to Robbie Ray ($6,600) as my second arm. Check out our excellent pitching primer to get a better look at how many viable options you will have for tonight's 14-game slate.
This article will provide you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 4/30/2021. The lineup will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also check out today's FanDuel MLB DFS lineup picks and read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports too. It’s also important to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. If you have any questions or comments, contact me on Twitter.
DraftKings DFS Starting Pitchers
Gerrit Cole - P, NYY vs. DET ($10,500)
There's not much to explain when it comes to Cole and why you should have him in your lineups. The man is on a mission for his first Cy Young, and he's off to an incredible start. In his last four outings, Cole has gone at least six innings, struck out eight batters, and allowed two earned runs or fewer while throwing at least 97 pitches. He's averaging 34.2 fantasy points per game over that same stretch, and the three-time All-Star is a perfect choice to lead your DFS squad. The right-hander leads the slate with a 42 percent strikeout rate compared to just a 2.5 percent walk rate. The Tigers go down via strikeout 27.1 percent of the time and have a measly 89 weighted Runs Created plus against right-handed pitching. Lots of Ks and a minimal threat of damage from the opponent means you should fire up Cole and reap the rewards.
Andrew Heaney - P, LAA at SEA ($6,900)
With Detroit facing a righty tonight (see above), I'll move over to another great matchup for southpaws: the Seattle Mariners. Through 260 plate appearances, the Ms, as a team, are rocking a .195/.291/.354 slash line to left-handers with a 28.85 percent strikeout rate. They are below average in wRC+ (91), and their .300 weighted On-Base Average is the sixth-worst in all of baseball.
This Seattle slander provides Andrew Heaney with an ideal matchup to continue his heavenly start to 2021. In two road starts (12 1/3 innings), Heaney is twirling a 0.73 ERA, 0.568 WHIP, and 19 strikeouts. The left-hander is averaging 31.5 FPPG in those two starts, and he could quickly get there again on Friday. The Angels (-145) are one of the bigger favorites to grab a win on the slate, and if the bats can come alive against Chris Flexen ($7,100), Heaney will have the perfect combination of a ton of strikeouts and a high chance of snagging the win in this AL West matchup.
Other Options: Yu Darvish vs. SF ($9,500), Nathan Eovaldi at TEX ($8,200), Madison Bumgarner vs. COL ($7,900), Robbie Ray vs. ATL ($6,600),
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DraftKings DFS Infielders
Roberto Perez - C, CLE at Dallas Keuchel ($3,600)
Willson Contreras ($5,400) is the most expensive catcher for a reason today. However, I'm going to cash in and take the extra $1,800 in savings to pivot down towards Roberto Perez. He is far from exceptional, but he does have a terrific matchup in Chicago today. Among 100 players that have at least 25 plate appearances against left-handed pitching, Perez ranks seventh in wRC+ (210) and eighth in OPS (1.115) and wOBA (.466). Those numbers are despite a dreadful .182 batting average on balls in play. Perez's opponent, Dallas Keuchel, is having a terrible start to 2021 with a 4.32 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and a lowest-on-the-slate 11.3 percent strikeout rate. Give me Contreras-lite, and I'll spend the $1,800 at another spot in my lineup tonight.
Jared Walsh - 1B/OF, LAA at Chris Flexen ($4,000)
Over his last 10 tilts, Walsh hasn't been as prolific as he was to begin the year. However, considering he was $5,100 on Apr. 19, I'm going to bet on a bounceback in Seattle. The outfielder is showing signs of life in his last three games with a .500 batting average and two doubles. Chris Flexen's start to 2021 looks legit. A 2.61 FIP and 3.72 SIERA backs up his 2.74 ERA. However, we just need a boop and a blast from Walsh to make our night, and I think he sends one over the fences for the first time since Apr. 16.
Garrett Hampson - 2B/OF, COL at Madison Bumgarner ($4,300)
Hampson projects to bat at or near the top of the Rockies lineup in a great spot versus Madison Bumgarner. He's turning into a lefty-masher to begin the season, and we will look to take advantage in Arizona. On the year, the utility man is slashing .375/.464/.750 versus southpaws, but only sports a .598 OPS against righties. The Rockies are a lousy offense, but I'm still not scared of Madison Bumgarner despite coming off his not-really-a-no-hitter no-hitter. The four-time All-Star pitcher is still rocking a 6.31 ERA after that fantastic start on Sunday.
Gio Urshela - 3B, NYY vs. Tarik Skubal ($3,600)
I write MLB DFS for Rotoballer on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays and move over to basketball on Tuesdays and Thursdays. So I'm not as in the loop on those basketball days, but I do know that Gio Urshela has been hot all week. However, his price hasn't gone up despite getting on base in 10-straight games, and he's hitting some long balls. In his last four games, the third baseman is 6-for-15 with two runs, two homers, eight RBI, and a 1.175 OPS. He has the capability of taking Tarik Skubal deep in Yankee Stadium and racking up the fantasy points for your squad.
Miguel Rojas - SS, MIA at Jon Lester ($4,100)
Lester is scheduled to pitch for the Washington Nationals tonight, and that should bring good times for Miguel Rojas. The Marlins shortstop projects to bat leadoff in front of the scorching hot Jesus Aguilar tonight, and I can see him bagging a couple of runs on Friday. The Marlins are far from a scary lineup, but the top half has some upside. Rojas has a 1.000 OPS against lefties compared to a .557 OPS against right-handed hurlers. The shortstop is actually 13th in the league with a .441 wOBA against southpaws, and his $4,100 price tag fits well in a majority of my lineups.
DraftKings DFS Outfielders
Jesse Winker - OF, CIN vs. Jake Arrieta ($5,100)
There aren't a lot of hitters on the planet hotter than Jesse Winker right now. The Reds outfielder has blasted five home runs in his last ten outings and three in his previous four. In the last 10 tilts, Winker is slashing .364/.417/.773 and averaging 13.6 FPPG. He's hitting at or near the top of a Reds offense going home after a six-game road trip and will get to see Jake Arrieta on the mound to start the weekend. The 2015 NL Cy Young winner is outperforming his expected stats on all of his pitches and will see some regression on his 2.57 ERA soon. Winker should help speed that process up with his hot-hitting ways tonight.
Kris Bryant - 3B/OF, CHC at Wade Miley ($4,800)
On the other side of the field from Winker will be Kris Bryant. He's almost as hot as his division rival with a 1.011 OPS for the entire season and he’s red-hot at the plate. In his last six games, the 2016 NL MVP is slashing .375/.400/.625 with three doubles, a home run, and six RBI. The folks that roster Bryant should not be scared of southpaw Wade Miley either. Among players with at least 20 plate appearances against lefties, Bryant comes in as the sixth-best hitter in the league with a .572 wOBA.
Kyle Tucker - OF, HOU at TB ($3,100)
You won't usually see a player with a .468 OPS in his last 10 games recommended in this article, but you will when it's Kyle Tucker. He is priced at a ludicrously low $3,100, and I am ready to buy the dip. While Tucker has struggled this year, he has still managed eight extra-base hits (five home runs) with 15 RBI and two stolen bases. The outfielder's .185 batting average is a sight for sore eyes, but he's been carrying a career-low .169 BABIP, and baseball savant has him with a .296 expected batting average. The former top prospect is just dealing with some bad luck at the moment, and I'm betting it turns around sooner rather than later.
DraftKings DFS Stacks
- New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers (Tarik Skubal, LHP)
- Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers (Kohei Arihara, RHP)
- Sneaky (Game) Stack: Chicago Cubs (Jake Arrieta, RHP) at Cincinnati Reds (Wade Miley, LHP)
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