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Mike Marteny's CFB betting results against the spread for Week 3 and the first picks for Week 4. He has every FBS college football game analyzed with his top wagers and NCAA best bets.
Week 3 is over, and the DVR is (mostly) cleared off. It's time to tally up the week 3 betting scores and see what we came away with. We'll get to that. First, we have five college football games before Saturday for a nice little pregame. All of those are FBS vs. FBS schools, so I need to pick those. We can make money before Saturday. It is possible! Let's see what we're dealing with in the Thursday and Friday pregame before another monster Saturday.
CFB Betting Picks 9/23 and 9/24:
Marshall at Appalachian State(-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
You can still get this at -7 in most places, so if you're taking the Mountaineers, shop around. Marshall just lost to an ECU team that the Mountaineers beat by 14 earlier this season. Give me Appalachian, but I'm lowering the bet a touch because of that half.
Middle Tennessee State at Charlotte(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I still think Charlotte is the better team, but Chase Cunningham looked awfully good when Bailey Hockman got benched. Considering how poorly the Charlotte offense outside of Grant DuBose played last week, I'm taking the Blue Raiders.
Wake Forest at Virginia(-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch a game without something riding on it. I'm considering betting the over and then watching these offenses pile up the points. I'll take Virginia at home, but I'm more comfortable betting the over.
Liberty(-6.5) at Syracuse
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Hmmm.....the Flames are favored in the Carrier Dome? It's one thing for the Orange to lose to a solid Rutgers team at home. It's something else for a Liberty team with one good player to come in there and win. Give me the Orange straight up.
UNLV at (22)Fresno State(-30.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Fresno is going to be careful with Jake Haener after the beating he took against UCLA last week, but their backup is solid too. I have to think Fresno covers. UNLV is right down there with UConn.
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CFB Betting Picks Week 3 Results:
I promised transparency this year, and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Here are the results from week 3. I picked 52 games and all 52 played. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My result will follow.
Ohio at Louisiana(-20.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I'm done with Ohio for a while. This team is lost.
Central Florida(-6.5) at Louisville: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This game was crazy! It is easy to underestimate crowd factor after basically not having one last year. Things are different now.
Maryland(-7.5) at Illinois: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This one hurt. Maryland is a better team almost everywhere on the field, but they rarely showed it. The Illinois defense played another strong game. If that offense comes around anytime soon, they could beat a team they shouldn't. They almost did here.
Nebraska at (3)Oklahoma(-22.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Nebraska fans are treating this like a victory, and in a sense, they should. Oklahoma's offense has a lot of question marks this year. We need a back to step up. We need the receivers to be better. There is no way that Oklahoma is a top five team and I'm enough of a fan to admit it. However, this catch by D.J. Graham might be the best interception I've ever seen (even though Oklahoma would have had better field position if he didn't make the catch).
This Oklahoma interception on repeat all day
— George Jarjour (@GeorgeOnTap) September 18, 2021
New Mexico at (7)Texas A&M(-30.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I knew better. I was still hoping that Terry Wilson would show some of what got him a SEC job in the first place. Silly me.
(8)Cincinnati(-3.5) at Indiana: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Finally! It ended up being free money, but Cincinnati had to overcome another garbage first half to increase the degree of difficulty. Desmond Ridder could have made a serious jump in the nation's eyes, but instead was overshadowed by Michael Penix.
(15)Virginia Tech at West Virginia(-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
It took until the last play of the game to decide this one. In all fairness, I had given up on it in the first half. It never should have come down to the last play of the game. West Virginia dominated this game for the most part and still only won by six.
(16)Coastal Carolina(-13.5) at Buffalo: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This game shouldn't have been as close as it was. It was a good performance by the Buffalo defense after being picked apart in Lincoln last week.
Michigan State at (24)Miami(FL)(-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Michigan State is going to be a real problem in the Big Ten(14) this year. There's a reason Mel Tucker is one of my favorite coaches. Kenneth Walker III is a huge addition, but this team is light years ahead of where it was last year. Much of that is coaching.
Northern Illinois at (25)Michigan(-27.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Michigan fans, you've seen this movie before. The Wolverines are certainly building it up this year. Will there be the inevitable letdown that has been the hallmark of Jim Harbaugh's tenure? Stay tuned! Michigan's offense looks better than it has at any point under Harbaugh though. That counts for something.
Western Michigan at Pittsburgh(-15.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I knew better. This was one of the more entertaining games of the weekend, at least. I like entertainment when I'm missing a pick. 54 combined first half points and I knew the bet was toast, so I just sat back and enjoyed one of the best games of Kenny Pickett's career, albeit in a losing effort.
Boston College(-15.5) at Temple: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The Eagles certainly made it look easy. However, this game wasn't as lopsided as the score indicated. BC's defense just performed the whole game.
Connecticut at Army(-34.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Army was up 42-0 at halftime, so excuse me if I'm a little pissed off about this. There is silver lining for UConn though. Tyler Phommachanh overcame a dreadful start to his college career to lead a couple of second half scoring drives. I'm not saying that UConn is suddenly going to be good, but they at least have a puncher's chance of not going winless now (I'm looking at you, UMass).
Minnesota at Colorado(-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
A well-deserved loss on my part. Minnesota's defense looked outstanding here. They handed the Ralphies their first goose egg in 15 years! The return of Chris Autman-Bell made the offense a little more efficient for Goldy as well, but it was another workhorse performance by Treyson Potts that makes Minnesota still look like a dangerous team.
Nevada(-1.5) at Kansas State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was the best game that Will Howard has ever played. Perhaps it was because he only threw ten passes.....
Purdue at (12)Notre Dame(-7.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Not a good showing for the Boilers. Notre Dame has a fairly difficult schedule this year. Good enough that they can cry for inclusion in the playoff if they run the table and have a leg to stand on. Big plays at key times by the offense is what made the Irish the better team here.
(1)Alabama(-14.5) at (11)Florida: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Alabama jumps out 21-3 and nearly loses? This is not what we are used to seeing from a Nick Saban team. Bryce Young had himself a good game in his first true road test. Is this trouble for the Bama defense? Florida ran for 245 yards on them despite not using Anthony Richardson at all.
Kent State at (5)Iowa(-22.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Another methodical beatdown by the Hawkeyes and another half-point loss for me.
Georgia Tech at (6)Clemson(-28.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Tigers defense is spot on, but this offense really misses Travis Etienne. Yes, even more than Trevor Lawrence. Clemson is going to have problems in ACC play this year.
Tulsa at (9)Ohio State(-24.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I expected a strong performance from Tulsa and I got it. I also expected Ohio State to pull away, which they did. Just not enough. Davis Brin throwing for 428 yards on the Buckeyes is cause for concern though. They will face better passers than him this year (but not many).
SMU(-12.5) at Louisiana Tech: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I forgot how bad the SMU defense is. The SMU quarterback reclamation project worked again, this time on Oklahoma transfer Tanner Mordecai. He's not Shane Buechele, but he and Grant Calcaterra make this offense look good.
Florida State at Wake Forest(-4.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
FSU is 0-3 for the first time since 1976 and lost to a FCS school for the first time ever. What can they do for an encore?
Eastern Michigan(-21.5) at Massachusetts: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
No, the scoreboard isn't deceiving you. UMass actually scored 28 points.
Baylor(-17.5) at Kansas: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was a nice little practice for Baylor. Back to real life this week.
USC(-8.5) at Washington State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Is Kedon Slovis about to go the way of J.T. Daniels? Jaxson Dart had one of the better debuts ever for a USC quarterback, and honestly, looked better than Slovis has this year. Thankfully, the injury to Slovis is not major, but Dart is a serious threat to his job, especially if Slovis should start slow in any game.
Georgia Southern at (20)Arkansas(-23.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
KJ Jefferson is never going to set the world afire through the air, but his athleticism gives this offense a dimension that they just didn't have before. Even as good as Jefferson and Treylon Burks have been, the Piggies still could finish 6-6 with the strength of the SEC West this year.
Mississippi State(-3.5) at Memphis: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This should be a win for me. The officials stole this game from the Bulldogs. There is no way that Calvin Austin should have been able to advance that punt. It was downed! On top of that, Memphis had two players with the same number on the field at the same time. It shouldn't have counted anyway! Then the onside recovery.....it was a recovery, yet they use the review to call a penalty that wasn't flagged on the field. That's a huge can of worms if we can start using reviews for penalties. This was the worst officiating I've seen in the last decade. Way to preserve that Memphis streak, zebras! I hope they paid you well!
Northwestern(-2.5) at Duke: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is what the Duke offense is capable of, though I do have serious questions about Northwestern's defense and have since the opener. This is not the Pat Fitzergald defenses that we are used to.
Ball State at Wyoming(-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Wyoming offense looked good, sure, but the defense was the story here. They shut out a good Cardinals offense in the first half and this was over about 20 minutes in.
Colorado State at Toledo(-13.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Toledo gets spanked at home after almost upsetting the Irish by a team that lost to South Dakota State because....of course they would. Can't even blame it on 2020 this time.
Arkansas State at Washington(-17.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Well, good morning Washington. The season started three weeks ago....
Middle Tennessee State at UTSA(-12.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Roadrunners ended the Bailey Hockman era in Mufreesboro already. Ho-hum, another triple digit game for Sincere McCormick and Zakhari Franklin. Both of these guys have NFL talent.
East Carolina at Marshall(-9.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Holton Ahlers completed the trifecta with a passing, rushing, and receiving touchdown. He topped off that sundae with the win for the cherry on top. The ECU defense has issues, but that offense is fun to watch.
Old Dominion at Liberty(-27.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That was almost death. Props to the Liberty defense for pitching a shutout in the second half.
South Carolina at (2)Georgia(-31.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Rotating quarterbacks turned into a 300 yard game for J.T. Daniels and UGA still couldn't cover. I knew better. Georgia had this before they allowed a fourth quarter touchdown without trying to score one of their own.
Charlotte at Georgia State(-4.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I give a gold star to the Georgia State defense. This was domination. the Charlotte offense got very little going over the entire game.
Florida International at Texas Tech(-20.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Oh, sure, now the Red Raiders throw the ball. There are a lot of good skill players on the Texas Tech offense, but I want to see them do something against a power five team.
Troy(-9.5) at Southern Mississippi: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was a painful game to watch – it was 3-0 Southern Miss at the half – but Taylor Powell came up big for Troy in the second half.
Utah(-8.5) at San Diego State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This is the kind of win that can help define a program. Utah is what SDSU wants to be. A fourth quarter flurry by Utah tied it up only for them to lose in triple overtime. Utah benched Baylor transfer Charlie Brewer after an awful first half and Cameron Rising led them all the way back. This is something to watch going forward.
(22)Auburn at (10)Penn State(-5.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Auburn definitely had their chances to win this game. They had several of them. The Auburn defense looked the part, but a mostly ineffective game from Bo Nix spelled doom for the Tigers. The Penn State defense is a very strong unit and the offense finally had some efficiency. Only four of Sean Clifford's 32 passes were incomplete. One was intercepted. This is the best game I've seen from Clifford and opens up a whole new dimension for Penn State if he can keep it up.
Virginia at (21)North Carolina(-8.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Wahoos defense squandered a career day from Brennan Armstrong – 39 of 54 with 554 yards and four touchdown passes – to still lose by 20. Both Ty Chandler and Josh Downs had monster games for the Tarheels. I love that Virginia offense, but the defense is a problem.
Central Michigan at LSU(-19.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
LSU still has a revolving door at running back, but the maturation that Max Johnson has shown just since the loss to UCLA is impressive. Of course, the quality of competition likely has something to do with it, but maybe he just needed some confidence. There wasn't a lot of that to go around last year for anyone on the Tigers.
UAB(-11.5) at North Texas: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'm not at all surprised that UAB scored 40. I am surprised that they held the Mean Green to just six points, all in the fourth quarter. This was a dominant performance by the Blazers. They could make some noise in Conference USA.
Utah State at Air Force(-9.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Wow, what happened to that Air Force defense in the second half? Deven Thompkins had a monster day on them and Calvin Tyler was a problem too. The disaster that was football in Logan last year is a distant memory. The mid-season coaching change, Jaylen Warren bailing, ineffectiveness at quarterback. None of that is here now. Arkansas State transfer Logan Bonner has looked good and we all knew how good Thompkins was. The Aggies have two big wins already.
Tulane at (17)Mississippi(-14.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It was very nice of Ole Miss to let off the gas up 40 going into the fourth quarter. They could have easily won by 50. Matt Corral had a solid day passing, but it was the four rushing touchdowns and seven touchdowns overall that people are going to talk about.
Stanford(-12.5) at Vanderbilt: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Tanner McKee is showing what made him a top-50 recruit out of high school. The Cardinal haven't really opened the whole playbook for him yet, but he gives them an efficiency at quarterback that they haven't had for a couple of years now.
Rice at Texas(-25.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Something tells me Texas has had some practices that were tougher than this.
Oklahoma State at Boise State(-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is going to be a tough one to swallow for Boise. The defense shut out the Cowboys in the second half, but Pistol Pete's boys returned the favor. I feel like Boise outplayed the visitors, but they couldn't quite get over the hump. To add insult to injury, Utah State transfer Jaylen Warren had another monster game against them. Just when Boise thought they were done with Mr. Warren.......the freight train hit them again.
(19)Arizona State(-3.5) at (23)BYU: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Arizona State is a very talented team, but we can always count on them to be sloppy. They were last year through three of their four games and it has been their calling card this year. I will hold off on judging just how good BYU is since I'm not convinced Arizona State is a top 25 team and Utah lost again. However, like Notre Dame, the Cougars have enough big names on the schedule to make noise if they keep winning.
(14)Iowa State(-31.5) at UNLV: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
UNLV is so bad that even the backups steamrolled them. It is mildly concerning for the Cyclones that it still took 21 carries for Breece Hall to get his hundred.
Fresno State at (13)UCLA(-11.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm really not surprised that Fresno won outright. This is a very good team. Jake Haener took an absolute pounding from UCLA and stood tall to win the game. This was one of the crazier fourth quarters I've seen this year. UCLA didn't play a poor game, but they also couldn't stop Fresno when they really needed to.
San Jose State(-6.5) at Hawaii: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
When you have nearly 900 punting yards and almost as many drops as catches (for San Jose State, anyway), you know what kind of game this was. Nick Starkel wasn't great with his accuracy, but at least 18 of his 27 incompletions could or should have been caught. So yeah, the Spartans dropped my pick too.
College Football Betting Season Results:
I was dreading this because I knew I was having a bad week. Going 0-3 before Saturday was ominous as was the precarious start to Saturday. It's times like this that can shake confidence and even cause me to question why I do this. I've learned to roll with the punches. This was not my worst ever week, but it was the worst one I've had in two years. I went 20-32 this week to put me at 71-76 on the season. Conference play begins in earnest for most teams this week and now I have some ground to make up.
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 4-5 (13-12) = 1
2. 10-14 (28-29) = -2
3. 3-7 (21-17) = 12
4. 2-5 (6-13) = -28
5. 1-1 (3-5) = -10
I lost 27 points on the week thanks to my four-point disasters. I've lost 19 points on the season now and my bank has dwindled to just nine points through than four seasons. I've dipped into the bank. I have plenty of chances to replenish that this week. Come back tomorrow for the spread picks for this weekend! We've got another big weekend with 67 games. 59 of those are FBS vs. FBS tilts, so it's the biggest betting week of the season so far!
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